Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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968 FXUS63 KFGF 150806 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rainfall will continue into the early morning hours within the northern Red River Valley && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...Synopsis... There is quite an extensive ongoing area of rain across the Northern Plains at the time of this discussion. In this FA specifically, can see a nice spin in the precipitation from the Mayville radar, seemingly centered just east of the Fargo Moorhead area. Per the SPC mesoanalysis page this is where a nearly stacked low pressure system is. This system has really slowed down from what had been seen the past few days, with this low now expected to slowly spin right over the FA all day. It should finally begin to push eastward tonight into early Friday. This system should still be followed by 500mb ridging for the weekend into early next week. How this ridging may break down in the mid to late week period is still quite uncertain. ...Locally heavy rainfall early this morning... As the above mentioned low has set up over the central Red River Valley early this morning, there is also an inverted trough north of the low extending up into northeast North Dakota. Precipitable water values are still around 1.80 inches within this corridor of strong 850mb moisture transport. Since midnight, have seen the steady rain across southeast North Dakota end, with the comma-shaped current band taking shape over the central and northern Valley. Big drops of rain falling quickly have led to precipitation amounts exceeding 2.00 inches within a narrow corridor around Grand Forks. This has fallen in waves, and Grand Forks has been dry, which has slowed the runoff from this rain. Interesting as well, there has been no lightning with this rainfall. These echoes continue to progress northward, and will move into the northern Valley between now and sunrise. Therefore it is likely the northern Valley will also see some amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range, although again these will be fairly localized. From sunrise through noon, the highest probabilities (70-90%) for rain will remain north of the highway 2 corridor, and possibly even transition westward back into the Devils Lake region. Then the rest of the area should see these higher probabilities for the afternoon. The best moisture feed will start to get cut off though, so outside of any thunderstorms, rainfall rates will be lower than now. It does look to stay cloudy all day today, so not sure how much instability will develop again. At this point, areas along the North and South Dakota border may see a few breaks, and that may be the only area that could see some rumbles of thunder this afternoon. As mentioned in the previous discussion, with the spin in the atmosphere, funnels may be possible this afternoon. This will be less likely without some heating (clearing), so will just have to keep an eye on that through the day. Fog is also something to monitor, but need some clearing for this too. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Rain and some thunderstorms in the KFAR area continue, with VFR to IFR conditions. Those sites that are still VFR should see a decrease in category as the night goes on as rain continues and we get more stratus and even some fog possibly filling in around the KDVL area. For now kept lowest vis around 1SM as not a classic ground fog situation but could see some lowered vis. Rain and VCSH will continue for most of the night, with a bit of a break possible during the day tomorrow before more showers reform. While some improvement in ceilings is not out of the question, clouds look like they will hang around for much of the day and some MVFR to IFR ceilings will be possible by the end of the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...JR