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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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069 FXUS63 KFGF 151855 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 155 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues this afternoon with minor impacts to harvest operations and overall dreary fall like weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...Synopsis... The stacked low over the valley will continue to meander south through tonight with showers main along the western and northern periphery of the low. Mean NW flow aloft will carry the low off to the south overnight with large scale ridging building across the four corners region through the weekend bringing drier weather and near normal temperatures. Variability in the location of the ridge will then dictate precip chances into next week with enough variability between guidance to say chances for rain but location and timing is unknown. ...Today... Clearing along the south and eastern side of the low is allowing diurnally driven showers to pop in SE North Dakota and west central Minnesota this afternoon. This activity will wane with southward movement of the low but not before another quarter to half inch of rain over the next 24 hours in eastern North Dakota with closer to 0.10 east of the valley. While there is minimal risk of flooding with any of the rain due to dry antecedent conditions the moisture may be unwelcome for some especially farmers in the beginning stages of the harvest season and fields will likely be muddy now for a few days before drying. After this low moves out ridging building out of the four corners region quickly begins to spread into the region though thermal ridging remains slightly west of us more along the MT/ND border keeping us near average for high temperatures through the weekend in the mid 70s to low 80s. next chance for rain looks to be early next week with shortwave activity working around the upper ridge into the northern plains. with not real agreement from ensembles about the likely location there does seem to be a general consensus that this rain (should it hit our area) would be on the light end of the spectrum with 72 probs for rain in 0.10 to 0.20 inch range. Some of this would likely be tied ridge as it shifts ever so slightly east bringing building instability but wont venture to speculate on any future severe threat or associates impacts from this activity. Overall a dreary end to the week with better weather in store for the weekend, guess we just couldn`t get away with a full week of perfect summer weather after the earlier 70s and 80s this week before the rain came. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Showers in NE North Dakota will will pivot south through the afternoon affecting mainly GFK, DVL, FAR. MVFR to IFR ceilings are widespread with very occasional reductions to LIFR in more steady rain. MVFR continues at all areas through the forecast period with higher confidence in IFR across western TAF sites through Thursday morning. Vis frequently will be below 5 miles in areas of rain but seldom below 2 miles except when paired with patchy fog. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...TT