069
FXUS63 KFGF 151855
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
155 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues this afternoon with minor impacts to harvest
  operations and overall dreary fall like weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...Synopsis...

The stacked low over the valley will continue to meander south
through tonight with showers main along the western and northern
periphery of the low. Mean NW flow aloft will carry the low off to
the south overnight with large scale ridging building across the
four corners region through the weekend bringing drier weather and
near normal temperatures. Variability in the location of the ridge
will then dictate precip chances into next week with enough
variability between guidance to say chances for rain but location and
timing is unknown.

...Today...
Clearing along the south and eastern side of the low is
allowing diurnally driven showers to pop in SE North Dakota and west
central Minnesota this afternoon. This activity will wane with
southward movement of the low but not before another quarter to half
inch of rain over the next 24 hours in eastern North Dakota with
closer to 0.10 east of the valley. While there is minimal risk of
flooding with any of the rain due to dry antecedent conditions the
moisture may be unwelcome for some especially farmers in the
beginning stages of the harvest season and fields will likely be
muddy now for a few days before drying.

After this low moves out ridging building out of the four corners
region quickly begins to spread into the region though thermal
ridging remains slightly west of us more along the MT/ND border
keeping us near average for high temperatures through the weekend in
the mid 70s to low 80s. next chance for rain looks to be early next
week with shortwave activity working around the upper ridge into the
northern plains. with not real agreement from ensembles about the
likely location there does seem to be a general consensus that this
rain (should it hit our area) would be on the light end of the
spectrum with 72 probs for rain in 0.10 to 0.20 inch range. Some of
this would likely be tied ridge as it shifts ever so slightly east
bringing building instability but wont venture to speculate on any
future severe threat or associates impacts from this activity.
Overall a dreary end to the week with better weather in store for
the weekend, guess we just couldn`t get away with a full week of
perfect summer weather after the earlier 70s and 80s this week
before the rain came.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Showers in NE North Dakota will will pivot south through the
afternoon affecting mainly GFK, DVL, FAR. MVFR to IFR ceilings
are widespread with very occasional reductions to LIFR in more
steady rain. MVFR continues at all areas through the forecast
period with higher confidence in IFR across western TAF sites
through Thursday morning. Vis frequently will be below 5 miles
in areas of rain but seldom below 2 miles except when paired
with patchy fog.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT