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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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386 FXUS63 KFGF 180550 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1250 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon Friday through Monday. Severe weather is not anticipated. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Clear skies across the area currently, with calm to light winds. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight. A cool Thursday morning is anticipated. UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Surface high pressure remains over the FA, with light winds and a diminishing cumulus field. Winds will stay light overnight and the remaining cumulus should fade away by sunset. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...Synopsis... Weak high pressure system will be in control today and Thursday. Low some low based cumulus development will continue each day as some low level moisture becomes trapped under the high pressure. Due to the low pressure system spinning over the great lakes the cumulus development will become more dense the further east into the northern half of Minnesota one can go. There may be a couple drops of rain as the clouds thicken in the afternoon but nothing measurable is expected. Friday through Tuesday A weak upper level wave is expected to transit through the Northern Plains Friday giving us the chance for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Looking at 850mb and 700mb Frontogensis and Temperature advection look to be marginal and insufficient to develop forcing strong enough to produce severe thunderstorms. Bulk Shear looks to remain around 20-30kts which is sufficient to develop the garden variety thunderstorms but not enough to really gives us the environment to sustain anything more than that. QPF Probs for greater than 0.25 inches is than 30 percent or lower. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 No impacts are expected at any of the TAF sites. Late Thursday morning and afternoon cumulus are anticipated again, although it may be more FEW-SCT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon/AH DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...Godon