117
FXUS63 KFGF 200427
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1127 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
  weekend and into next week. Severe impacts are unlikely.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Although there are still a couple weak echoes near Bemidji,
doubt anything is actually reaching the ground. The rest of the
night should be precipitation free. Sunset showed the high thin
layer of smoke, which should help prevent temperatures from
cooling as much as they could tonight. This may also help
prevent much fog formation. A few sites have reported haze or
fog already, but visibilities have only been in the 3 to 5 mile
range.

UPDATE
Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Have had a little shower and thunderstorm activity just to the
southeast of Baudette. With no 0-6km bulk shear, these storms
have stayed weak. There have also been a few showers and rumbles
of thunder down around Fergus Falls. Overall would expect a
weakening trend by sunset. A thin veil of upper level smoke will
also remain over the FA tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...Synopsis...

Shortwave rotating down into the Red River Valley producing not
too much in the way of convection so far, but there are some
glaciated clouds entering our far northern counties. Still some
decent instability and not much shear, so 20 to 30 percent
chances for garden variety showers and thunderstorms seems
reasonable. Most activity will taper off after sunset as we lose
heating and the main shortwave pushes off to the southeast,
although some of the CAMs keep some showers around Lake of the
Woods throughout the night. There has been some haze in the
upper levels on satellite and in the smoke models, so kept the
cloud cover no lower than 30 percent. At this point the near
surface concentrations look low so will keep out low level
mentions for now.

Not much changes with the overall pattern for the next few days
as north to northwest flow with several weak shortwaves coming
through. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances, with weak
shear limiting severe potential to less than 5 percent.
Temperatures should be fairly seasonal, building to above
average values towards the end of the period as ridging arrives
for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

There could be some spotty fog around sunrise on Saturday, but
confidence is not high enough to mention it at any of the TAF
sites. Expect late morning and afternoon cumulus development,
with spotty showers and storms again. With the high thin veil of
smoke, it may take a little longer to pop cumulus and initiate
any storms. Mentioned VCTS at all sites except KFAR for now for
mid afternoon through early evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Godon