754
FXUS62 KFFC 160845
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
445 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...RESENT TO CORRECT ERRORS...

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 443 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A weak frontal boundary currently stretches from the western Great
Lakes back through northern Texas. This boundary will move south and
east today and impact the CWA on Saturday. An MCS is expected to
develop across the central US this afternoon in the vicinity of the
front, and also move SE. This MCS should weaken as it gets further
away from the boundary/upper support, but will bring a chance for
strong to isolated severe thunderstorms to portions of northwest GA
late this afternoon and evening.

The hi-res models have been somewhat consistent with bringing any
cluster of storms into NW GA right before 00Z. Storms should weaken
as they move south of the I-20 corridor. There will be plenty of
surface instability present across far NW GA, but lapse rates remain
marginal as the storms move through. However, strong upper
divergence is noted. The main severe weather hazard should be
damaging wind gusts for any isolated severe storms that could
develop.

Additional storms are likely along and ahead of the front on
Saturday, with timing a bit earlier than today. Lapse rates will
remain weak, but surface instability remains plentiful. Strong
storms continue possible, with an isolated severe thunderstorm not
out of the question.


NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 443 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

At a glance:

    - Rainy start with cold frontal passage Sunday

    - Say hello to False Fall -- cooler and drier through midweek

The extended starts on Sunday with a mid-level closed low digging
across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, nudging a cold front to
the south and east as it goes. The front will lose its oomph (as
they tend to do while trekking across central Georgia) the further
into the state it goes, with the midnight to daybreak timeframe
across portions of north Georgia likely to be the winner as far as
highest precipitation chances (currently in the 50-60% range).
Potential for severe weather is low but nonzero through the
afternoon on Sunday, and at present looks to be more probable with
the arrival of the pre-frontal trough in the short term/Saturday.
Best kinematics will remain well to our north with the surface
cyclone, but typical summertime afternoon instability combined with
even slightly bolstered shear magnitudes would support locally
higher chances for organized clusters of thunderstorms capable of
producing an isolated damaging wind gust.

Behind the front on Monday, the key player in our sensible weather
will be a constant stream of cooler, drier air at the mid-levels --
fed by northwesterly flow on the lee side of high amplitude ridging
across the Desert Southwest. Low-end rain chances are possible
Monday primarily across northern (thanks to wraparound moisture in
the wake of the surface low departing the Eastern Seaboard) and
south central Georgia (lingering frontal moisture/forcing),
otherwise have kept PoPs at 15% or below through Thursday. Most
excitingly, expect crisp mornings -- especially across north Georgia
-- through the long term, with lows each night forecast to drop into
the upper 50s to 60s. Afternoon highs will similarly fall on the
cooler side, though only marginally so, in the mid-80s to lower-90s
each day.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions through much of tomorrow. Sct tsra will likely
approach ATL right before or around 00Z, weakening south as they
move south. A wind shift to the west side should occur between
10-12Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med- high confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  71  92  70 /  10  60  50  40
Atlanta         91  73  92  71 /  10  60  50  50
Blairsville     85  66  86  65 /  50  60  50  60
Cartersville    92  71  92  70 /  30  60  50  60
Columbus        94  73  93  74 /  10  10  50  40
Gainesville     90  71  91  71 /  20  60  50  50
Macon           91  71  90  72 /   0  10  50  30
Rome            91  71  91  70 /  40  60  60  60
Peachtree City  91  71  91  70 /  10  40  50  50
Vidalia         90  70  91  74 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...NListemaa