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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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754 FXUS62 KFFC 160845 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 445 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...RESENT TO CORRECT ERRORS... ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 443 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A weak frontal boundary currently stretches from the western Great Lakes back through northern Texas. This boundary will move south and east today and impact the CWA on Saturday. An MCS is expected to develop across the central US this afternoon in the vicinity of the front, and also move SE. This MCS should weaken as it gets further away from the boundary/upper support, but will bring a chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms to portions of northwest GA late this afternoon and evening. The hi-res models have been somewhat consistent with bringing any cluster of storms into NW GA right before 00Z. Storms should weaken as they move south of the I-20 corridor. There will be plenty of surface instability present across far NW GA, but lapse rates remain marginal as the storms move through. However, strong upper divergence is noted. The main severe weather hazard should be damaging wind gusts for any isolated severe storms that could develop. Additional storms are likely along and ahead of the front on Saturday, with timing a bit earlier than today. Lapse rates will remain weak, but surface instability remains plentiful. Strong storms continue possible, with an isolated severe thunderstorm not out of the question. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 443 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 At a glance: - Rainy start with cold frontal passage Sunday - Say hello to False Fall -- cooler and drier through midweek The extended starts on Sunday with a mid-level closed low digging across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, nudging a cold front to the south and east as it goes. The front will lose its oomph (as they tend to do while trekking across central Georgia) the further into the state it goes, with the midnight to daybreak timeframe across portions of north Georgia likely to be the winner as far as highest precipitation chances (currently in the 50-60% range). Potential for severe weather is low but nonzero through the afternoon on Sunday, and at present looks to be more probable with the arrival of the pre-frontal trough in the short term/Saturday. Best kinematics will remain well to our north with the surface cyclone, but typical summertime afternoon instability combined with even slightly bolstered shear magnitudes would support locally higher chances for organized clusters of thunderstorms capable of producing an isolated damaging wind gust. Behind the front on Monday, the key player in our sensible weather will be a constant stream of cooler, drier air at the mid-levels -- fed by northwesterly flow on the lee side of high amplitude ridging across the Desert Southwest. Low-end rain chances are possible Monday primarily across northern (thanks to wraparound moisture in the wake of the surface low departing the Eastern Seaboard) and south central Georgia (lingering frontal moisture/forcing), otherwise have kept PoPs at 15% or below through Thursday. Most excitingly, expect crisp mornings -- especially across north Georgia -- through the long term, with lows each night forecast to drop into the upper 50s to 60s. Afternoon highs will similarly fall on the cooler side, though only marginally so, in the mid-80s to lower-90s each day. 96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions through much of tomorrow. Sct tsra will likely approach ATL right before or around 00Z, weakening south as they move south. A wind shift to the west side should occur between 10-12Z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med- high confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 91 71 92 70 / 10 60 50 40 Atlanta 91 73 92 71 / 10 60 50 50 Blairsville 85 66 86 65 / 50 60 50 60 Cartersville 92 71 92 70 / 30 60 50 60 Columbus 94 73 93 74 / 10 10 50 40 Gainesville 90 71 91 71 / 20 60 50 50 Macon 91 71 90 72 / 0 10 50 30 Rome 91 71 91 70 / 40 60 60 60 Peachtree City 91 71 91 70 / 10 40 50 50 Vidalia 90 70 91 74 / 0 10 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....96 AVIATION...NListemaa