550
FXUS62 KFFC 130130
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
930 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024


.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Forecast remains steady with no updates made to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

-Quiet weather through the short term.

-Some areas of triple digit heat index values but a heat advisory
not anticipated.

A beautiful late summer day is expected for the short term.
Temperatures are on the warm side today and tomorrow with highs in
the low to mid 90s. But Td`s with NW flow will be in the low 60s
which will make the heat much more bearable. A few areas closer to
the coast in the SE portions of the CWA will see afternoon dewpoints
in the 70s. HI values down there will be in the triple digits, but
should remain below heat advisory criteria.

Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s for most of the
CWA. With high pressure aloft, not much should change in the
forecast over the next 48 hours. A few clouds in the afternoon are
not expected to produce any kind of weather.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

No changes made in the extended forecast. By Wednesday there will
still be a broad upper trough over the eastern seaboard slowly
drifting east. This keeps our current airmass mostly in place,
with some modification to the surface over time that allows
moisture to slowly filter back in. Thursday, trough over the
northeast finally gets a kick and begins to move out but is
followed quickly by another wave on Friday into Saturday which
should drive a front towards the area. Some uncertainty around the
timing of this within the guidance, but there seems to be pretty
good agreement on the development of a surface low that would
drive the front into the area.

Diurnally driven storms will be the main threat through at least
Thursday, though chances stay relatively isolated to scattered (15-30%)
thanks to an unfavorable environment, especially in the upper
levels. Lapse rates are very poor, and forecast soundings show
difficulty in achieving any instability thanks to T-Td spreads of
20+ degrees. This changes a bit going into Friday and Saturday,
where the aforementioned potentially moves through providing some
better moisture return ahead of it and a focus for forcing. Timing
will be key here, and the confidence on that is pretty low at
this time. This is part of why PoPs remain a bit lower as well -
confident that some decent rain will move into the area, but not
confident in when or how much.

All this keeps temps and apparent temps average for this time of
year in the 90s. Only other thing to mention is the PTC Five out in
the Atlantic, which currently would be forecast to pass well east of
the area and remain mostly out in the Atlantic. This scenario is
aided by the trough digging into the area, which would act to pick
up any tropical cyclone moving into the east Atlantic and keep it
away from us. Uncertainty still exists, but confidence is getting
higher that impacts to the CONUS will be limited.

Lusk/01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Expecting the cu field to lift and high level cirrus to stick
around through the overnight as winds shift to the NW. Tomorrow
expecting the cu field to form again ~5-6kt before lifting again
tomorrow overnight. Winds should shift from the NW to the NE late
evening tomorrow into the overnight.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
Atlanta         71  93  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     62  85  63  84 /   0  20  10  20
Cartersville    64  93  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        72  97  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     70  91  70  89 /   0  10  10  10
Macon           70  96  72  92 /   0  10  10  20
Rome            65  92  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         74  95  75  90 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Hernandez