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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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550 FXUS62 KFFC 130130 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 930 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Forecast remains steady with no updates made to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 -Quiet weather through the short term. -Some areas of triple digit heat index values but a heat advisory not anticipated. A beautiful late summer day is expected for the short term. Temperatures are on the warm side today and tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s. But Td`s with NW flow will be in the low 60s which will make the heat much more bearable. A few areas closer to the coast in the SE portions of the CWA will see afternoon dewpoints in the 70s. HI values down there will be in the triple digits, but should remain below heat advisory criteria. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s for most of the CWA. With high pressure aloft, not much should change in the forecast over the next 48 hours. A few clouds in the afternoon are not expected to produce any kind of weather. Vaughn && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 No changes made in the extended forecast. By Wednesday there will still be a broad upper trough over the eastern seaboard slowly drifting east. This keeps our current airmass mostly in place, with some modification to the surface over time that allows moisture to slowly filter back in. Thursday, trough over the northeast finally gets a kick and begins to move out but is followed quickly by another wave on Friday into Saturday which should drive a front towards the area. Some uncertainty around the timing of this within the guidance, but there seems to be pretty good agreement on the development of a surface low that would drive the front into the area. Diurnally driven storms will be the main threat through at least Thursday, though chances stay relatively isolated to scattered (15-30%) thanks to an unfavorable environment, especially in the upper levels. Lapse rates are very poor, and forecast soundings show difficulty in achieving any instability thanks to T-Td spreads of 20+ degrees. This changes a bit going into Friday and Saturday, where the aforementioned potentially moves through providing some better moisture return ahead of it and a focus for forcing. Timing will be key here, and the confidence on that is pretty low at this time. This is part of why PoPs remain a bit lower as well - confident that some decent rain will move into the area, but not confident in when or how much. All this keeps temps and apparent temps average for this time of year in the 90s. Only other thing to mention is the PTC Five out in the Atlantic, which currently would be forecast to pass well east of the area and remain mostly out in the Atlantic. This scenario is aided by the trough digging into the area, which would act to pick up any tropical cyclone moving into the east Atlantic and keep it away from us. Uncertainty still exists, but confidence is getting higher that impacts to the CONUS will be limited. Lusk/01 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Expecting the cu field to lift and high level cirrus to stick around through the overnight as winds shift to the NW. Tomorrow expecting the cu field to form again ~5-6kt before lifting again tomorrow overnight. Winds should shift from the NW to the NE late evening tomorrow into the overnight. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence on all elements. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 71 92 71 89 / 10 20 10 10 Atlanta 71 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 Blairsville 62 85 63 84 / 0 20 10 20 Cartersville 64 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 72 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Gainesville 70 91 70 89 / 0 10 10 10 Macon 70 96 72 92 / 0 10 10 20 Rome 65 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 10 Peachtree City 68 93 70 92 / 0 0 0 10 Vidalia 74 95 75 90 / 0 20 10 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...Hernandez