862
FXUS62 KFFC 121735
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Conditions continue to look similar to the last several days across
GA. A moisture boundary remains in position across the area with the
line generally stretching from Athens to the east of Macon and then
to the south and west. Dewpoints to the east of the line sit in the
70s while dewpoints to the west remain in the 60s or even lower.
Moisture will likely continue to filter further westward near Athens
as a weak thermal sfc low develops this afternoon. Not expecting the
moisture to make it very far today, however moisture begins to mix
northward from southwest GA on Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances remain
near zero today and <30 percent across eastern GA on Tuesday. CAPE
values will also be near zero with probs of CAPE >500 J/Kg less than
30 percent. Any thunderstorms that gets going will likely remain
weak and short lived.

Temperatures each day will sit in the mid to upper 90s, however
given the depressed dewpoints, heat indices will remain below heat
advisory criteria. As always, proper heat safety precautions should
continue to be taken even if not advisory is active.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Little change in the long term forecast for this update package.
Broad trough remains over easter seaboard slowly drifting west
through the beginning of the period. This keeps our current airmass
mostly in place, with some modification to the surface over time
that allows moisture to slowly filter back in. Thursday, trough over
the northeast finally gets a kick and begins to move out but is
followed quickly by another wave on Friday into Saturday which
should drive a front towards the area. Some uncertainty around the
timing of this within the guidance, but there seems to be pretty
good agreement on the development of a surface low that would drive
the front into the area.

Diurnally driven storms will be the main threat through at least
Thursday, though chances stay relatively isolated (15-30%) thanks to
an unfavorable environment, especially in the upper levels. Lapse
rates are very poor, and forecast soundings show difficulty in
achieving any instability thanks to T-Td spreads of 20+ degrees.
This changes a bit going into Friday and Saturday, where the
aforementioned potentially moves through providing some better
moisture return ahead of it and a focus for forcing. Timing will be
key here, and the confidence on that is pretty low at this time.
This is part of why PoPs remain a bit lower as well - confident that
some decent rain will move into the area, but not confident in when
or how much.

All this keeps temps and apparent temps average for this time of
year in the 90s. Only other thing to mention is the PTC Five out in
the Atlantic, which currently would be forecast to pass well east of
the area and remain mostly out in the Atlantic. This scenario is
aided by the trough digging into the area, which would act to pick
up any tropical cyclone moving into the east Atlantic and keep it
away from us. Uncertainty still exists, but confidence is getting
higher that impacts to the CONUS will be limited.
Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

CU field across N GA will bring FEW VFR clouds this afternoon. NW
winds will be less than 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  70  90 /  10  20  10  20
Atlanta         71  94  72  91 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     64  85  63  84 /  10  20  10  20
Cartersville    66  93  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        73  98  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     71  92  71  89 /  10  10  10  20
Macon           73  97  73  93 /   0  10   0  20
Rome            67  92  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  70  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         75  95  75  90 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Vaughn