664
FXUS62 KFFC 141834
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
234 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

At a glance:

-Period of calm weather continues.

-Temps remain warm, but conditions continue to trend drier.

Another beautiful summer day is expected for the short term.
Temperatures are on the warm side today and tomorrow with highs in
the low to mid 90s. Td`s with easterly flow will be in the mid 50s
which will continue to keep a lid on the heat index. In fact, we`re
not expecting any areas of our CWA to break triple digit HI values
today or tomorrow.

The weather element also remains quiet and will continue to do so
largely thanks to Hurricane Ernesto as it moves north over the
Atlantic. It will help to keep the flow generally E/NE. This setup
looks more like October than August, but you won`t get any
complaints from us.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A little taste of fall in the extended...a least a faux fall
for August. By Friday AM, hurricane Ernesto should be approaching
Bermuda as it tracks north in response to a deepening trof off
 the east coast of the US. The combination of Ernesto and the
upper level energy moving through the great lakes will act to
reinforce the trof over the eastern US this weekend.  As a result
a frontal boundary is slated to approach during the day Friday
into early Saturday which will result in increased pops during the
first part of the weekend. Instability looks modest along and
ahead of the boundary, with the best look...albeit marginal, on
Saturday if any storms and develop along or south of the frontal
boundary. SPC does include a marginal risk for severe for the
northern portion of the state for day 3 which extends into early
Saturday which aligns fairly well with mid level lapse rates
around 6 deg/c/km and aoa 2000 j/kg SBcapes. Main risk would
appear to be winds, small hail, and lightning. With not much mid
and upper level support, would not expect anything more than
isolated, but still worth mentioning and monitoring.

Beyond Saturday/post frontal, drier air both at the surface and
aloft work into the region as the upper trof really settles into
the area. Lower to middle 60 dewpoints move in late Sunday into
Monday making it noticeably drier...and cooler in the
evenings/overnight through the remainder of the extended.

For the last portion of the extended period...some uncertainties
with how the trof exits the region and whether it leaves behind a
cut off low or lifts out all of the energy as ridging attempts to
build back in from the west. The cutoff solution would certainly
raise pops and lower temps next week...but will have to wait and
see how it trends.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Low clouds are gradually breaking up and giving way to a daytime CU
field. CIG heights are already giving way to low VFR heights where
they are expected to stay BKN050 for the afternoon. Winds will be
out of the ENE at less than 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  89  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
Atlanta         72  89  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     64  83  64  86 /  10  10   0  30
Cartersville    71  91  70  93 /   0  10   0  20
Columbus        75  93  72  95 /  10   0   0  10
Gainesville     70  87  69  91 /  10  10   0  10
Macon           70  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            70  91  71  93 /   0  10   0  30
Peachtree City  70  89  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         71  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...Vaughn