970
FXUS62 KFFC 140829
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
429 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Northwest flow aloft continues for the region as the ridge over the
central CONUS breaks down. Instability remains low however due to
weak moisture availability. PWATs will likely drop below 1.5"
through Thursday, thanks to low-mid level NNE flow along the trough
off the coast (enhanced in part by Ernesto) as well as a SFC high
over the northeast CONUS. Diurnal PoPs remain low through the period
and away from the metro for now. A few light showers may be possible
south of a line from MCN to CSG and east of AHN.

Temperatures will be pretty cool compared to what we`ve had so far
this summer. Highs will barely touch the 90s (I know so cold).
Dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s will help to keep conditions
"nicer".

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

At the start of the long term, trough will be digging into the
eastern US. We can be thankful for this trough, as it will be what
ultimately picks up TS Ernesto and pushes it well to the east of
Georgia. This upper level feature will stay with us for much of the
long term thanks to being squeezed between the ridge downstream
being pumped by latent heating from the tropical system and
amplifying subtropical ridge upstream over the central and SW CONUS.

Friday, our flow from the NE will likely get reinforced as the large
tropical system begins to pass to the east. This will keep drier air
in place over the CWA until later in the evening when the surface
low over the Great Lakes begins to crank up a bit and pull moisture
in from the Gulf ahead of a cold front. This front will slowly
approach the area by Saturday into Saturday night/Sunday morning,
where the best PoPs are now positioned, though the -exact- timing
remains to be seen, and differences can be gleaned through the
deterministic guidance in the Euro and GFS. These differences in
timing likely relate in large part to the positioning, size,
strength, etc of Ernesto, and won`t put much stock in the global
guidance getting all of those details right.

What guidance is pretty consistent on is moving the front through
the area either completely or through all put far east central
Georgia. This puts us in a similar situation to this week, with N to
NW flow and a drier air mass that will likely suppress most
diurnally driven convection. PoPs have come down a good bit as a
result of this. This change makes sense as guidance continues to
get a better handle overall on how Ernesto will impact the upper
level flow.

Highs will be in the upper 80s to 90s through the period. The only
day which looks to have potential for heat advisory concerns may be
Saturday, though the potential for cloud cover or rainfall may end
up limiting those impacts. Past then, with drier air filtering into
the area heat impacts will be limited overall.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions through most of the period, save for the morning
hours. SCT010 is likely from 10z-15z this morning, with brief
periods of MVFR to IFR possible mostly east of the metro including
AHN. PoPs remain near zero for all but south and east of a line from
CSG to MCN to AHN. Winds light from the NNE will shift to E through
tonight.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence Cigs this morning.
High all other elements.
SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  69  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
Atlanta         90  71  90  71 /  10  10  10   0
Blairsville     84  64  82  64 /  20  10  20  10
Cartersville    92  71  91  70 /  10   0  10   0
Columbus        94  74  93  72 /  10  10  20   0
Gainesville     88  69  88  69 /  10  10  10   0
Macon           90  71  91  69 /  10   0  10   0
Rome            92  70  91  71 /  10   0  20  10
Peachtree City  91  70  90  69 /  10  10  10   0
Vidalia         89  71  90  69 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...SM