![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
970 FXUS62 KFFC 140829 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 429 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 427 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Northwest flow aloft continues for the region as the ridge over the central CONUS breaks down. Instability remains low however due to weak moisture availability. PWATs will likely drop below 1.5" through Thursday, thanks to low-mid level NNE flow along the trough off the coast (enhanced in part by Ernesto) as well as a SFC high over the northeast CONUS. Diurnal PoPs remain low through the period and away from the metro for now. A few light showers may be possible south of a line from MCN to CSG and east of AHN. Temperatures will be pretty cool compared to what we`ve had so far this summer. Highs will barely touch the 90s (I know so cold). Dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s will help to keep conditions "nicer". SM && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 427 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 At the start of the long term, trough will be digging into the eastern US. We can be thankful for this trough, as it will be what ultimately picks up TS Ernesto and pushes it well to the east of Georgia. This upper level feature will stay with us for much of the long term thanks to being squeezed between the ridge downstream being pumped by latent heating from the tropical system and amplifying subtropical ridge upstream over the central and SW CONUS. Friday, our flow from the NE will likely get reinforced as the large tropical system begins to pass to the east. This will keep drier air in place over the CWA until later in the evening when the surface low over the Great Lakes begins to crank up a bit and pull moisture in from the Gulf ahead of a cold front. This front will slowly approach the area by Saturday into Saturday night/Sunday morning, where the best PoPs are now positioned, though the -exact- timing remains to be seen, and differences can be gleaned through the deterministic guidance in the Euro and GFS. These differences in timing likely relate in large part to the positioning, size, strength, etc of Ernesto, and won`t put much stock in the global guidance getting all of those details right. What guidance is pretty consistent on is moving the front through the area either completely or through all put far east central Georgia. This puts us in a similar situation to this week, with N to NW flow and a drier air mass that will likely suppress most diurnally driven convection. PoPs have come down a good bit as a result of this. This change makes sense as guidance continues to get a better handle overall on how Ernesto will impact the upper level flow. Highs will be in the upper 80s to 90s through the period. The only day which looks to have potential for heat advisory concerns may be Saturday, though the potential for cloud cover or rainfall may end up limiting those impacts. Past then, with drier air filtering into the area heat impacts will be limited overall. Lusk && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions through most of the period, save for the morning hours. SCT010 is likely from 10z-15z this morning, with brief periods of MVFR to IFR possible mostly east of the metro including AHN. PoPs remain near zero for all but south and east of a line from CSG to MCN to AHN. Winds light from the NNE will shift to E through tonight. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence Cigs this morning. High all other elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 87 69 89 68 / 10 10 0 0 Atlanta 90 71 90 71 / 10 10 10 0 Blairsville 84 64 82 64 / 20 10 20 10 Cartersville 92 71 91 70 / 10 0 10 0 Columbus 94 74 93 72 / 10 10 20 0 Gainesville 88 69 88 69 / 10 10 10 0 Macon 90 71 91 69 / 10 0 10 0 Rome 92 70 91 71 / 10 0 20 10 Peachtree City 91 70 90 69 / 10 10 10 0 Vidalia 89 71 90 69 / 30 10 10 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...SM