556
FXUS62 KFFC 102349
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
749 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Key Messages:

    - As was the case today, Friday will bring another day of
      scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A few storms
      could produce locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.

    - Heat index values as high as 98-104 are again expected Friday
      afternoon.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this
afternoon within a moist and unstable environment characterized by
analyzed MUCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.75 - 2.10". Both a
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms as well as for excessive
rainfall blanket most or all of the area through this evening. Given
the deep Gulf moisture in place, any training or backbuilding
thunderstorms could produce cause localized street flooding or flash
flooding. As far as the severe threat is concerned, locally damaging
water-loaded downburst winds would be the primary concern. All of
this widespread convection will gradually wane by late evening with
the loss of diurnal support.

Friday will bring a more or less copy/paste forecast as little in
the way of appreciable pattern change will occur. Scattered
diurnally-enhanced thunderstorms will again develop by early
afternoon and peak in coverage during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Again, locally heavy rainfall could present
sporadic street/flash flooding concerns, and a few strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms may bring strong downburst wind
gusts.

While conditions will be hot and humid, temperatures and apparent
temperatures will remain largely below Heat Advisory criteria
through Friday. Expect highs from the upper 80s to low 90s for most
areas Friday afternoon with maximum heat index values reaching as
high as 102-104 in portions of central and east-central Georgia.
While a few spots could flirt with 105 apparent temperatures, these
values should be short-lived in the midst of increasing convection.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

At a glance:

- Thunderstorm coverage in the afternoon will continue through next
week.

- Temperatures will steadily rise, and heat indices could rise back
into the triple digits.

The long term forecast is going to be pretty much stuck on a rinse
and repeat cycle of afternoon thunderstorms with hot and humid
conditions. Gulf moisture will continue to be injected into the
southeast under an upper level high pressure just off the Atlantic
coast. This is a pretty typical summertime pattern and we`re not
seeing any indication that a strong enough ridge out of the west is
going to break it. As a result, afternoons will be hot with isolated
thunderstorms that could be strong to severe depending on diurnal
heating and the presence of any meaningful wind shear.

Temperatures are also going to slowly become more and more of an
issue as we get into the weekend. High temps will be pushing mid to
upper 90s with triple digit heat indices possible, especially in the
southern parts of the CWA. So if you have plans outside this
weekend, just make sure you`re staying hydrated and keep an eye on
kids and pets too!

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Generally VFR conditions expected outside of convection. ISO
SHRA/TSRA activity will diminish over the next few hours. There is
potential for patchy IFR CIGs around 10-12Z Friday, though
confidence is low. SCT SHRA/TSRA activity returns Fri
aftn/evening. Winds generally W at 5-10 kts through the period,
weakening to 5 kts or less overnight.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence in potential for morning IFR CIGs. High on all
other elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  71  93 /  20  40  10  30
Atlanta         71  91  73  92 /  20  50  20  40
Blairsville     65  85  65  86 /  20  60  20  60
Cartersville    70  90  70  92 /  20  50  20  40
Columbus        73  92  73  93 /  20  60  20  40
Gainesville     70  90  72  92 /  20  50  10  40
Macon           72  92  73  93 /  20  40  20  30
Rome            70  89  70  90 /  20  50  10  40
Peachtree City  70  90  70  92 /  20  50  20  40
Vidalia         73  93  75  94 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Culver