885
FXUS62 KFFC 160524
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
124 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

One more day of typical summer cu field before we start to see
things change as a front approaches and a deep trof sets up over the
eastern half of the US.  Shortwave ridge over the Gulf coast states
today shifts westward through Friday as energy within the northern
stream dives southward through the central US and drags a surface
boundary with it.
By late Friday, mid level ridge begins to set up across TX panhandle
putting the Ohio Valley and SE on the NW flow side of the
ridge...whilst the aforementioned energy and shortwave diving
southward toward us begin to impinge upon NW GA late Friday.  SPC
includes marginal risk for severe ...which will mainly include late
Friday.  Model instabilities are sufficient aoa 2500 j/kg SBCAPE and
modest mid level lapse rates could support some severe along or just
ahead of the approaching front.
Given the upstream environment..also cannot rule out some sort of
early day complex sending an outflow boundary toward the region late
Friday which could be a catalyst for some severe ahead of the front.
  Bigger severe threat appears to be more aligned on Saturday with
higher SBCAPE values and surface boundary traversing the CWA.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

At a glance:

-A relatively weak front will push its way south on Saturday
bringing scattered thunderstorms.

-Increasingly dry air filters in behind it bringing fall like
conditions to the SE.

A front is expected to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
into the area Saturday afternoon. The severe threat will largely
depend on how much daytime heating we endure before the front moves
through. The later in the day, the more likely we`ll see strong to
severe storms. Some effective shear values of 30+ kts associated
with the front could allow for favorable upper level dynamics. Any
threat that does develop will be primarily a wind threat.

After the front moves out, unseasonably dry air works it`s way into
the CWA. By Monday we`ll see Td values in the low 60s and 50s. This
will limit our PoPs chance to near zero for the start of next week.
This trend will likely continue through the week adding to our dry
conditions.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions through much of tomorrow. Sct tsra will likely
approach ATL right before or around 00Z, weakening south as they
move south. A wind shift to the west side should occur between
10-12Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med- high confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  94  72  92 /  60  40  40  20
Atlanta         73  93  72  91 /  60  30  50  30
Blairsville     67  87  65  82 /  60  40  60  40
Cartersville    72  93  70  91 /  60  30  60  30
Columbus        73  96  74  96 /  10  30  40  40
Gainesville     72  93  71  89 /  60  40  50  20
Macon           69  94  72  94 /  10  30  40  40
Rome            73  93  71  89 /  60  30  60  40
Peachtree City  71  93  71  91 /  40  40  50  30
Vidalia         70  93  74  94 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...NListemaa