064
FXUS62 KFFC 162334
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
734 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Current satellite loop shows mostly fair weather CU across north and
central GA with the incoming frontal boundary moving SE across
western TN. This frontal boundary is very weak and is expected to
fall apart as it pushes into the ATL area later tonight. The models
show the front moving into NW GA around 00z them moving the next
into the ATL area a few hours later. Mainly areas north of an ATL to
AHN line will see some precipitation this evening/tonight but the
boundary is expected to stall across central GA tonight. This will
allow things to get fired up again Sat across the area before a
second wave moves in and pushes everything south of the area through
Mon. Right now there is a marginal chance of severe storms
developing as this boundary moves into NW GA this evening but the
latest model runs are showing this system weakening as it moves in.
Would not be surprised to see an isolated severe storms or two but
not expecting much organization with this system. The hi-res models
have been fairly  consistent with bringing a cluster of storms into
NW GA right before 00Z and weakening them as they move into the ATL
area through 04-08z. The main severe weather hazard should be
damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes with any storms
that develop.

Additional storms are likely along and ahead of the front on
Saturday, with timing a bit earlier than today. Lapse rates will
remain weak, but surface instability remains plentiful. Strong
storms continue possible, with an isolated severe thunderstorm not
out of the question.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

At a glance:

  - Cold front will keep storm chances in place Sunday

  - Cooler and drier conditions will follow through midweek

Closed low over the Great Lakes will still dominate the weather
pattern early in the extended, with associated cold front
lingering across central Georgia. By Sunday morning, expect the
boundary to lose its robustness, but as it slowly meanders south
and east (and out of the area), could see diurnal influence
driving some isolated isolated storms through Sunday afternoon.

Northwest flow in the wake of the frontal passage will supply much
cooler and drier conditions to the state. High pressure over the
Southwest CONUS and longwave trough along the eastern seaboard
will provide a channel for the cooler, continental airmass to
funnel into the area. Aside from brief, lingering moisture as the
Sunday weather exits, the remaining long term is PoP-free through
Thursday. Crisp, `false fall` mornings can be expected as early as
Tuesday morning with a return to lows in the 60s over much of the
area, and 50s for the higher elevations. Slightly lower highs are
also expected, but with temperatures still in the mid-80s to low
90s, the difference may not be as noticeable. For those
interested, June 11 was the last time KATL had a low temperature
in the mid 60s.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A line of thunderstorms is moving southeast over northern GA. TSRA
is expected to arrive at ATL between 01-05Z. These storms are
gradually expected to weaken before they reach ATL so confidence
on TSRA remains on the medium side. Winds out of the SW will
gradually shift to NW over the course of the TAF cycle at less
than 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium on WX
High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  95  71  92 /  10  20  30  20
Atlanta         73  95  72  92 /  60  50  50  40
Blairsville     66  88  65  83 /  80   0  60  40
Cartersville    72  95  70  91 /  90  50  50  40
Columbus        75  96  74  96 /  10  50  40  40
Gainesville     72  94  71  89 /  70  10  50  20
Macon           71  94  72  94 /   0  50  40  30
Rome            72  94  71  90 /  90  40  60  50
Peachtree City  72  94  71  92 /  20  50  50  30
Vidalia         70  93  74  95 /   0  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Vaughn