842
FXUS62 KFFC 090717
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
317 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain possible each
      afternoon. Some storms may produce isolated wet downbursts/
      damaging wind gusts and flash flooding, especially across
      east central Georgia.

    - Heat Index values as high as 100-104 degrees possible today
      and tomorrow afternoon.

Discussion:

Moving into the midpoint of the week, we retain our pattern of
general mid-level troughing. However, a stronger, more negatively-
tilted shortwave rounding the base of the broader trough will
provide a bit more oomph to convective coverage (and perhaps
intensity for some locales) today. Deep layer flow supports a
conveyor belt of moisture into the Southeast, and this is reinforced
at the surface by further moisture-rich southwesterly flow along the
western edge of the Bermuda High. PWATs were already a whopping
2.05" per yesterday`s 00Z FFC sounding, well exceeding the 90th
percentile and approaching the daily maximum for this time of year.
Convective initiation will likely occur by mid-morning across far
southeast central Georgia, becoming scattered to numerous in
coverage by late afternoon. Kinematics remain weak due to meager
upper-level support, however, instability will be bolstered today due
to surging moisture (on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE, and
perhaps slightly higher in isolated pockets). As a result of our
anomalously moist environment, we will see the potential for precip-
loaded downdrafts to produce isolated damaging wind gusts --
especially across the eastern half of the forecast area where a
Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk has been introduced by the SPC. In
concert with the bolstered severe chances, lack of steering flow
(generally 10kts or less) will mean that storms that form may move
little and perhaps even backbuild at times. A narrow corridor across
far southeast central Georgia has been outlooked in a Slight (level
2 out of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall by WPC, where ensemble
guidance progs 6-hour probability-matched mean totals of as much as
2.5-3". Widespread flash flooding concerns are not anticipated
(though nuisance flooding and ponding of low-lying or impermeable
areas are likely in any storm that forms today), but are possible in
areas that see congealing of strong, slow-moving storms.

Little change in parameter space is forecast moving into Thursday,
and similar conditions are to be expected -- with even more
widespread afternoon thunderstorms than today. SPC has introduced a
sliver of a Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk across far east central
Georgia, again highlighting increased chances to see strong water-
loaded downbursts capable of producing isolated damaging gusts.

Highs today and tomorrow will be generally "cooler" than we`ve seen
in the past few days, in the mid-80s to mid-90s for all except far
northeast Georgia -- which should remain in the lower 70s to 80 --
thanks to increased coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and thus
cloud cover. Despite this, with surging moisture and therefore humidity,
widespread maximum "feels like" temperatures will be between 100 to
104 degrees, generally bubbling right under Heat Advisory criteria
(though isolated pockets within the southern and eastern halves of
the area may briefly feel like 105). Given relatively patchy nature,
not anticipating product issuance at this time, but will continue to
monitor. Lows will drop into the 60s to lower 70s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Key Messages:

  - "Cooler" to start the long term with increasing probability of
seeing some decent heat by the beginning of next week (mid to upper
90s)

  - High PoPs to end the week, lower PoPs to start next week.


Forecast:

While a few systems swing by to the north that keep moisture in the
area, subtropical dirty ridge looks to settle in across the Gulf
Coast through the weekend and keep rain chances around through much
of the long term forecast, though with less coverage through at
least the beginning of next week. Good agreement in this across the
ensemble model suites with the past few runs. The trade-off with
decreasing PoPs will likely mean increasing afternoon high
temperatures. With confidence increasing a bit in those lowered
PoPs, afternoon highs have ticked up into the mid to upper 90s
Sunday and Monday (possible that we see enough convective coverage
on Tuesday to limit highs a bit). Apparent temps soar into the
triple digits in most areas, and will need to monitor parts of east
central Georgia closely, as they are approaching heat advisory
criteria for the beginning of the week. Regardless of hitting the
number, it`s going to be hot out there, and the humidity will make
it truly air you can wear.

Only other thing to monitor is that some of the guidance is trying
to spit out a coastal low along the Gulf at the very end of the long
term. No tropical development within the models, but plenty of
moisture and rainfall potential with something like that. Definitely
worth keeping an eye on, as these coastal lows are common pathways
for tropical development in July, however.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Majority VFR conditions to continue thru the TAF period with
primarily FEW-SCT cigs at 4-10kft. SCT to NUMEROUS -TSRA is psbl
between 19-02Z, captured by a PROB group for all northern
terminals. May need to be upgraded to a TEMPO depending upon
coverage. Low cigs (MVFR to perhaps IFR) are psbl tomorrow morning
post- TSRA, but location will depend on progression this aftn.
Winds will remain out of the W at 4-7kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence afternoon TSRA chances and Thursday AM
ceilings.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          93  71  91  71 /  50  40  70  30
Atlanta         93  73  91  72 /  60  30  70  30
Blairsville     86  65  84  65 /  70  40  90  30
Cartersville    93  70  90  70 /  50  30  70  30
Columbus        94  73  93  72 /  40  30  60  30
Gainesville     92  72  89  72 /  60  30  70  30
Macon           94  73  92  72 /  50  30  60  30
Rome            91  70  88  70 /  50  30  70  20
Peachtree City  93  71  91  70 /  50  30  70  30
Vidalia         90  73  93  74 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...96