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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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705 FXUS62 KFFC 170525 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 125 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Current satellite loop shows mostly fair weather CU across north and central GA with the incoming frontal boundary moving SE across western TN. This frontal boundary is very weak and is expected to fall apart as it pushes into the ATL area later tonight. The models show the front moving into NW GA around 00z them moving the next into the ATL area a few hours later. Mainly areas north of an ATL to AHN line will see some precipitation this evening/tonight but the boundary is expected to stall across central GA tonight. This will allow things to get fired up again Sat across the area before a second wave moves in and pushes everything south of the area through Mon. Right now there is a marginal chance of severe storms developing as this boundary moves into NW GA this evening but the latest model runs are showing this system weakening as it moves in. Would not be surprised to see an isolated severe storms or two but not expecting much organization with this system. The hi-res models have been fairly consistent with bringing a cluster of storms into NW GA right before 00Z and weakening them as they move into the ATL area through 04-08z. The main severe weather hazard should be damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes with any storms that develop. Additional storms are likely along and ahead of the front on Saturday, with timing a bit earlier than today. Lapse rates will remain weak, but surface instability remains plentiful. Strong storms continue possible, with an isolated severe thunderstorm not out of the question. 01 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 At a glance: - Cold front will keep storm chances in place Sunday - Cooler and drier conditions will follow through midweek Closed low over the Great Lakes will still dominate the weather pattern early in the extended, with associated cold front lingering across central Georgia. By Sunday morning, expect the boundary to lose its robustness, but as it slowly meanders south and east (and out of the area), could see diurnal influence driving some isolated isolated storms through Sunday afternoon. Northwest flow in the wake of the frontal passage will supply much cooler and drier conditions to the state. High pressure over the Southwest CONUS and longwave trough along the eastern seaboard will provide a channel for the cooler, continental airmass to funnel into the area. Aside from brief, lingering moisture as the Sunday weather exits, the remaining long term is PoP-free through Thursday. Crisp, `false fall` mornings can be expected as early as Tuesday morning with a return to lows in the 60s over much of the area, and 50s for the higher elevations. Slightly lower highs are also expected, but with temperatures still in the mid-80s to low 90s, the difference may not be as noticeable. For those interested, June 11 was the last time KATL had a low temperature in the mid 60s. 31 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Isold/sct shra should remain north of ATL overnight. Afternoon convection is again possible, mainly along the I-20 corridor. The bulk of the storms may be just to the south of ATL, but will keep the prob30 in for the afternoon. Winds will remain on the west side through the period. Some sct IFR possible early Sunday morning. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med-high confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 71 92 68 90 / 20 30 10 0 Atlanta 72 92 69 88 / 20 30 20 0 Blairsville 65 83 61 80 / 30 30 10 0 Cartersville 70 91 67 88 / 20 30 10 0 Columbus 74 96 71 92 / 30 30 40 0 Gainesville 71 89 68 88 / 20 30 10 0 Macon 72 94 69 92 / 30 30 40 0 Rome 71 90 67 88 / 20 30 10 0 Peachtree City 71 92 67 89 / 30 30 20 0 Vidalia 74 95 72 92 / 30 30 50 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...NListemaa