715
FXUS62 KFFC 152332
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
732 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

One more day of typical summer cu field before we start to see
things change as a front approaches and a deep trof sets up over the
eastern half of the US.  Shortwave ridge over the Gulf coast states
today shifts westward through Friday as energy within the northern
stream dives southward through the central US and drags a surface
boundary with it.
By late Friday, mid level ridge begins to set up across TX panhandle
putting the Ohio Valley and SE on the NW flow side of the
ridge...whilst the aforementioned energy and shortwave diving
southward toward us begin to impinge upon NW GA late Friday.  SPC
includes marginal risk for severe ...which will mainly include late
Friday.  Model instabilities are sufficient aoa 2500 j/kg SBCAPE and
modest mid level lapse rates could support some severe along or just
ahead of the approaching front.
Given the upstream environment..also cannot rule out some sort of
early day complex sending an outflow boundary toward the region late
Friday which could be a catalyst for some severe ahead of the front.
  Bigger severe threat appears to be more aligned on Saturday with
higher SBCAPE values and surface boundary traversing the CWA.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

At a glance:

-A relatively weak front will push its way south on Saturday
bringing scattered thunderstorms.

-Increasingly dry air filters in behind it bringing fall like
conditions to the SE.

A front is expected to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
into the area Saturday afternoon. The severe threat will largely
depend on how much daytime heating we endure before the front moves
through. The later in the day, the more likely we`ll see strong to
severe storms. Some effective shear values of 30+ kts associated
with the front could allow for favorable upper level dynamics. Any
threat that does develop will be primarily a wind threat.

After the front moves out, unseasonably dry air works it`s way into
the CWA. By Monday we`ll see Td values in the low 60s and 50s. This
will limit our PoPs chance to near zero for the start of next week.
This trend will likely continue through the week adding to our dry
conditions.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VFR conditions are largely forecast through the period. Mostly
clear skies overnight will give way to cu in the 4-6 kft range
after 14-16Z Friday. Sct SHRA/TSRA become more likely at ATL area
sites after 00Z Saturday. SE winds at 3-6 kts will shift to SW by
11-14Z Friday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on Fri PM SHRA/TSRA potential.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  92  71  94 /   0  10  20  30
Atlanta         71  93  73  93 /   0  10  40  50
Blairsville     64  86  67  87 /   0  40  50  60
Cartersville    71  94  72  93 /   0  30  40  60
Columbus        72  95  73  96 /   0  10   0  40
Gainesville     69  91  72  93 /  10  20  40  40
Macon           68  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  30
Rome            70  93  73  93 /   0  40  50  60
Peachtree City  69  93  71  93 /   0  10  20  40
Vidalia         69  91  70  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...RW