695
FXUS62 KFFC 071037
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
637 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Key Messages:

    - A return to daily afternoon thunderstorm chances.

    - Heat Index values of 100-105 degrees (and perhaps higher)
      possible today and tomorrow afternoon.

Discussion:

As we kick off the work week on Monday, the mid-level pattern will
shift from relatively tranquil, weak ridging to persistent troughing
(through at least late week). The combination of a series of
shortwaves rounding the bases of the broader eastward-translating
troughs and a lingering baroclinic zone along the northern Gulf will
support a return to afternoon thunderstorm chances characteristic of
summertime. For today, as the atmospheric column slowly rebounds,
isolated thunderstorm development will be relegated primarily to far
north and south central Georgia. A moisture-rich, higher PWAT
(1.5- 2") airmass will continue to fill in across the forecast
area through Tuesday, and convective coverage will increase as it
does so, with chances for scattered to numerous thunderstorms
across all of north and central Georgia. Instability will be on
the lower side by summer standards -- on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg -- so not expecting much in the way of severe storm
activity. However, an isolated strong to perhaps marginally severe
storm impact cannot be ruled out for the most advantageous
updrafts.

Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s for
all except far northeast Georgia, which should remain in the upper
70s to 80s. As moisture begins to return with exiting subsidence,
expect heat index values to begin to creep back toward and above the
century mark. As a caveat, afternoon heat potential will depend
heavily upon where storms (and associated cloud cover) form/linger.
For now, widespread maximum "feels like" temperatures will be
between 100 to 105 degrees today, generally bubbling right under
Heat Advisory criteria. For Tuesday on, with richer moisture
present, Heat Index values may reach advisory criteria (between
105 and 110 degrees) for pockets of the area. Stay tuned for
potential product issuance. Lows will drop into the 60s to
mid-70s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Key Messages:

- Heat index values expected to reach at least 100-105 degrees
across portions of central and eastern Georgia each day.

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms across at least
portions of north and central Georgia each day.

Discussion:

A quasi-zonal/trough-y pattern will be in place in the mid-levels
and upper-levels through the long term period. Tropical moisture
will continue to feed into the Southeast courtesy of southwesterly
flow around the periphery of the Bermuda High.

Ensemble guidance continues to depict PWATs ranging from 1.7" to
2.0" through the period, with values maximized over central Georgia.
Expecting that each day will bring at least scattered -- if not
widespread -- diurnally-driven showers and storms. Any weak
disturbances traversing the mid-/upper-level flow over the
Ohio/Tennessee River Valley could amplify the coverage/intensity of
daily convection. In true Georgia summertime fashion, a few storms
each day could be strong to severe, with gusty to localized damaging
winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. In addition to
disturbances aloft, mesoscale features like cloud cover/differential
heating and outflow boundaries from earlier convection will govern
where exactly storm development is favored each day. Generally
speaking, the potential for widespread/organized severe weather
remains low, as the progged mid-/upper-level pattern does not look
supportive of strong forcing/ascent. If anything, the relatively
weak flow aloft may support slow-moving or stationary storms that
produce heavy rainfall over a given area for an extended period of
time. WPC has a Day 5 (Thursday/Thursday night) Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall roughly along and north of I-20, so the risk for
localized flash flooding will need to be monitored, especially
toward the end of the week.

Showers and storms (and resulting cloud cover) will have a big
impact on how high heat index values climb each day. In general,
values will range from 100-105 degrees across much of central and
eastern Georgia each day. Isolated locales could have values reach
108-110 degrees. Heat Advisories will be needed for values of 105
degrees or greater that are expected to last at least an hour.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conds expected thru the TAF period. Primarily SKC/cigs at
20-25kft in the evening/overnight, with FEW-SCT cu at 4-7kft
during the aftn. Precipitation chances for northern TAF sites are
non-zero but currently too low for TAF mention. Winds will remain
out of the W at 5-8kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence coverage of afternoon precipitation.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  74  96  74 /  10   0  30  20
Atlanta         95  75  95  75 /  10  10  40  20
Blairsville     89  66  89  66 /  10  10  50  20
Cartersville    95  72  95  72 /  10  10  40  20
Columbus        95  75  95  74 /  20  10  30  20
Gainesville     94  73  94  74 /  10  10  30  20
Macon           97  75  96  75 /  20  10  40  20
Rome            94  71  93  71 /  10  10  40  20
Peachtree City  95  72  95  72 /  10  10  40  20
Vidalia         96  76  95  75 /  30  20  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...96