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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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715 FXUS62 KFFC 152332 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 732 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 One more day of typical summer cu field before we start to see things change as a front approaches and a deep trof sets up over the eastern half of the US. Shortwave ridge over the Gulf coast states today shifts westward through Friday as energy within the northern stream dives southward through the central US and drags a surface boundary with it. By late Friday, mid level ridge begins to set up across TX panhandle putting the Ohio Valley and SE on the NW flow side of the ridge...whilst the aforementioned energy and shortwave diving southward toward us begin to impinge upon NW GA late Friday. SPC includes marginal risk for severe ...which will mainly include late Friday. Model instabilities are sufficient aoa 2500 j/kg SBCAPE and modest mid level lapse rates could support some severe along or just ahead of the approaching front. Given the upstream environment..also cannot rule out some sort of early day complex sending an outflow boundary toward the region late Friday which could be a catalyst for some severe ahead of the front. Bigger severe threat appears to be more aligned on Saturday with higher SBCAPE values and surface boundary traversing the CWA. 30 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 At a glance: -A relatively weak front will push its way south on Saturday bringing scattered thunderstorms. -Increasingly dry air filters in behind it bringing fall like conditions to the SE. A front is expected to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area Saturday afternoon. The severe threat will largely depend on how much daytime heating we endure before the front moves through. The later in the day, the more likely we`ll see strong to severe storms. Some effective shear values of 30+ kts associated with the front could allow for favorable upper level dynamics. Any threat that does develop will be primarily a wind threat. After the front moves out, unseasonably dry air works it`s way into the CWA. By Monday we`ll see Td values in the low 60s and 50s. This will limit our PoPs chance to near zero for the start of next week. This trend will likely continue through the week adding to our dry conditions. Vaughn && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 729 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions are largely forecast through the period. Mostly clear skies overnight will give way to cu in the 4-6 kft range after 14-16Z Friday. Sct SHRA/TSRA become more likely at ATL area sites after 00Z Saturday. SE winds at 3-6 kts will shift to SW by 11-14Z Friday. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on Fri PM SHRA/TSRA potential. High confidence on other elements. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 69 92 71 94 / 0 10 20 30 Atlanta 71 93 73 93 / 0 10 40 50 Blairsville 64 86 67 87 / 0 40 50 60 Cartersville 71 94 72 93 / 0 30 40 60 Columbus 72 95 73 96 / 0 10 0 40 Gainesville 69 91 72 93 / 10 20 40 40 Macon 68 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 30 Rome 70 93 73 93 / 0 40 50 60 Peachtree City 69 93 71 93 / 0 10 20 40 Vidalia 69 91 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...RW