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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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338 FXUS62 KFFC 180728 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 328 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The region becomes fully entrenched in the base of an upper trof located to the north over the great Lakes and sandwiched between upper ridging over the Atlantic and over the western US. The lack of any real convective inhibitor combined with deeper moisture in place including 1.7"+ PWATs, should allow us to see well above climo coverage of showers and storms through the short term. In addition a weak surface boundary sinks south with the aforementioned trof to our north and becomes a focus for diurnal convection later today...and again on Friday. CAMs all suggesting the 18z-00z window as the most likely time period to see convection which initiates along that surface boundary over northern GA before sinking southward through the day. Not expecting any widespread severe weather as parameters in general are not too impressive, however, similar to Wednesday, cannot rule out an isolated severe or two for damaging wind. Given the PWAT values, expect heavy rainfall to be the primary risk along with lightning. By Friday..models suggest some weak mid level energy lifts NE toward the area from the Gulf Coast around the western periphery of the Atlantic Ridge and into the base of the upper trof. Combined with the stalled surface boundary, expect widespread coverage of showers and tstorms across the area during the day Friday. NBM guidance putting out 90 pops for a large portion of the area and CAMs, particularly the ARW, FV3 and NSSL WRF, basically support the idea of more coverage of storms on Friday...with potentially something more organized moving northward during the day. A deeper look into the parameter space yields the presence of a little bit of mid level energy including deep layer shear values 30kt to as high as 45kt across middle GA...which in turn would increase the likelihood there could be some severe potential on Friday. Of course this will be very dependent on how much diurnal heating can occur before storms develop and stabilize the column. The HRRR and NAMnest both suggestive of more CAPE on Friday than Thursday with values potentially exceeding 3000 j/kg in some areas along or near the stalled surface boundary..where there could be a pooling of moisture. Currently the SPC outlook still highlights general thunder but the CSU ML severe has picked up on the subtle features enough to trigger some severe probabilities. Will continue to monitor trends and communicate with SPC on future outlooks for any potential upgrades in the outlook Friday. Regardless, its summer and we typically don`t need but subtle amounts of shear to trigger a little more severe coverage. Similar to Thu, heavy rain/higher rainfall rates will again be a primary risk areawide on Friday. 30 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 At a glance: -No big changes to the previous forecast -Showers and thunderstorms will be likely every afternoon. The only real change from the previous long term is tacking on another day at the end of long term that will likely have a high end chance of PoPs. Otherwise, not much has changed or varied from the previous forecast. Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range into early next week so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the 3 inch range with locally higher amounts expected for isolated areas. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few afternoon storms could warrant a SVR warning with winds being the primary concern. Given MU CAPE values in the vicinity of 2000+ J/KG most of our afternoon convection will likely have strong winds, periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning. As far as temps go, we`ll be on the cool side of the climatological norms with highs around 3 degrees below normal. Highs beginning Friday will be in the mid 80s to low 90s from north to south; areas of higher elevations may struggle to get out of the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. It`s worth noting that high temps may be significantly different from the forecast in areas where rain keeps temps from peaking during the afternoon. Vaughn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Another day of dodging showers and embedded tstorms across the the region and at all taf sites. Expect diurnal cycle to begin somewhere around 18z across the area and continue through 00z around the area. Do expect a little more coverage today than yesterday. Have identified the 18-22z window as the most likely per CAM guidance but may need to extend that window at some sites depending on how things play out today. Winds will be again out of the west and remain so through the period with the exception of in tstorms. Could be some brief MVFR at the metro sites early in the AM per some of the guidance but am opting to hold off putting anything lower and sct015 for now...but will monitor trends. Otherwise, Expect VFR CU field and some mid to higher level cloud debris to be the rule of the day. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence on timing of convection High confidence all other elements 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 93 70 85 69 / 60 50 70 70 Atlanta 91 71 84 70 / 70 50 80 70 Blairsville 84 65 79 65 / 60 30 80 70 Cartersville 90 69 84 68 / 70 40 80 70 Columbus 95 73 89 72 / 70 60 80 50 Gainesville 90 71 83 70 / 50 40 70 70 Macon 94 71 90 70 / 60 50 70 50 Rome 90 69 85 69 / 70 30 70 70 Peachtree City 92 69 85 69 / 70 60 80 70 Vidalia 94 74 94 74 / 60 50 70 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...30