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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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650 FXUS62 KFFC 181854 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 254 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Convection is again firing across the area in a rinse and repeat type forecast from the past couple of days. Much of north Georgia is being affected currently but that should move southward and begin to affect the remainder of central Georgia. Again there are sfc based CAPE values at 2500-3000 J/kg but shear values are again nonexistent so again a rinse and repeat forecast with storms going up and then down. Tomorrow seems a bit more interesting but only marginally so. For the past few days we have been under the influence of mainly diurnally driven convection, but tomorrow the front begins to sag southward which will provide some bit of weak forcing for the thunderstorms. This along with a potential weak shortwave depicted swinging northeast from the lower MS valley could result in more organized convection tomorrow. Still looking at shear values that aren`t overly impressive (up to 25kts) so not really expecting any widespread severe weather. Storms could have a bit more organization though and movement with these values and we could see locally severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning still being the main threats. One positive of this rain and cloud cover is that temps are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s for much of the area tomorrow instead of the 90s. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Persistent pattern remain in place through the long term forecast into the middle of next week. Large dome of high pressure looks to remain fixed over the western half of the CONUS, keep longwave troughing with embedded shortwaves over the eastern half. Given the summer position of the jet, this acts to keep a stream of moisture flowing around the south of the Bermuda High into the CWA. The long term remains as it has through this entire week - wet, damp, moist, pick your favorite word. Diurnally driven convection looks to be on tap across the area each afternoon, with enough moisture around that some things may linger into the overnight. Any given day will have to be monitored for any uptick in severe potential that would be dependent upon remnant outflows and any MCV production from the previous day`s convection. Shear remains quite low overall, with 0-6 km values in forecast soundings remaining below 25 kts, but an MCV could certainly modify that in a way that the coarser guidance may not capture. CAPE profiles are long and skinny thanks to a basically moist adiabatic vertical profile that limits lapse rates. Still, day time heating will bring values to 1500-2000+ J/kg, and that can certainly drive some strong wind gusts as a core comes down. Isolated damaging winds can never be ruled out this time of year. Lusk && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Currently starting to see convection popping up around the area, but not expecting to see convection until ~19z for ATL with the lingering cloud cover limiting it a tad. TSRA chances should remain through the remainder of the evening with lingering showers possible until ~02-03z. Tomorrow morning there remains a risk for lower MVFR skies but the percentages are pretty low at this point. Expecting TS again tomorrow but a little earlier with ~16z initiation time. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Low to medium on morning CIGS. Medium to high on all other elements. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 89 69 88 / 50 90 80 80 Atlanta 71 86 70 85 / 50 90 90 90 Blairsville 65 80 65 80 / 30 90 90 90 Cartersville 68 84 69 85 / 20 90 80 90 Columbus 73 91 71 89 / 50 90 70 80 Gainesville 70 84 70 85 / 40 90 90 90 Macon 71 92 71 90 / 40 80 60 70 Rome 70 85 69 85 / 30 80 80 90 Peachtree City 70 87 69 87 / 50 90 80 80 Vidalia 73 93 74 93 / 40 70 50 80 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...Hernandez