098
FXUS62 KFFC 170104
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
904 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024



...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Forecast remains on track for this evening. Convective activity
has waned across a majority of the area, but a strong
cluster/quasi-line of thunderstorms is ongoing in the vicinity of
Macon. With a relatively untapped atmosphere ahead of it, it`s
likely that they will be maintained in intensity for the next hour
or so as they continue southeastward towards our CWA border.
Isolated gusts to 40-45 mph are possible.

96

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Hires models have been slow to pick up on the convection today but
overall starting to see the convection firing across the area with a
broken line of thunderstorms continuing to make their way southeast
into the ATL metro. These should continue to move southeastward
through the area. Sfc based CAPE values are between 2000 and 3000
J/kg but the shear is basically non existent so storms are pretty
much going up without much movement this afternoon aside from the
line moving southeast into ATL.

For tomorrow we are expecting a similar setup except with the trough
being closer by there will a bit more forcing. Models haven`t been
great at picking up convection the past two days but they are
indicating a bit more of an organized line towards the late
afternoon. The threats with this would of course be strong to
damaging winds and frequent lightning.

Temps will be in the mid 90s tomorrow but with the convection and
the cloud cover expected tomorrow, the apparent Ts should stay low
enough to not need a heat advisory tomorrow.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Long term still looks to be a bit of a washout. Models are still
focusing in on Thursday as being particularly wet thanks to the cold
front that is expected to push into the area and stall. This front
will act as a focus for convection during the afternoon with the
potential for some training convection along it. 1-2" of rain will
be possible, with some isolated higher amounts in any locations that
see multiple rounds. Marginal risk for flash flooding is in place
per WPC as a result. Going into the weekend, the stalled front
should slowly lift back north allowing Gulf/Atlantic moisture to
continue to filter back into the area. Daily diurnal convection will
continue. Into the beginning of next week, an open tropical wave
riding the south side of the Bermuda high will move into Florida and
the Gulf, and could provide even more moisture for rainfall. No
development of this feature into anything more is expected at this
time.

Severe parameters remain relatively tame over the coming days thanks
to a lack of shear, with effective bulk shear forecasts being
generally under 20 kts as the jet stream remains well to the north.
MLCAPE values will rise to 2000+ J/kg, so even with the lack of
shear, a strong storm that falls hard will be capable of a strong to
severe wind gust, but these should remain very isolated. Some
organization will be possible with aid from the front that pushes
into the region on Thursday, so this will need to be monitored.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions to continue. Lingering -TSRA in the vicinity of
MCN/CSG will taper off thru 02Z. FEW-SCT cu to develop by 15-16Z
Wednesday, otherwise primarily SCT-BKN cigs at 10-20kft. Higher
coverage of -TSRA expected tomorrow aftn for northern terminals,
with best chances currently captured by PROB group from 17-23Z.
Winds will remain out of the W/SW at 5-9kts, and may be CALM to
VRB overnight.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence afternoon precipitation chances and timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  94  72  92 /  10  50  40  80
Atlanta         75  92  73  90 /  20  60  50  90
Blairsville     68  86  66  84 /  30  80  70  90
Cartersville    73  94  70  91 /  20  70  50  90
Columbus        75  96  74  95 /  10  60  40  90
Gainesville     74  92  73  90 /  20  60  50  80
Macon           74  96  73  94 /  10  50  30  80
Rome            73  94  71  90 /  10  80  60  90
Peachtree City  73  93  71  92 /  10  60  50  90
Vidalia         76  95  76  95 /  10  50  20  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...96