Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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440 FXUS62 KFFC 171903 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 303 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Models have performed better today with scattered convection firing. The atmosphere has recovered quickly from the showers this morning with temps in the low 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. That along with CAPE values ~2500-3000 J/kg and pockets of 3500 J/kg mean these storms have plenty of energy to work with this afternoon. Shear is still basically non existent so although we could see a couple of severe storms, not expecting anything widespread. Lapse rates are decent but not overly impressive so wouldn`t be surprised if we saw a few reports of pea size hail with any storms that become strong along with the other threats of gusty winds (mainly sub severe) and frequent lightning. PWATs from the morning sounding show ~1.8" which means that these storms will also be efficient rainfall producers. Despite this, we are only looking at isolated pockets of up to 0.25" mainly associated with the convection at this time. Tomorrow we should start to see some effects from the front as it drapes just north of the area. This should result in increased convection in north GA and the normal diurnal convection should continue into the afternoon for the remainder of GA. Temps will again be in the low to mid 90s for most of the area with limited relief if you happen to be affected by a shower. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The trend towards wetter weather doesn`t look to abate with this forecast update. Stalled front will likley be to the north of the area Friday with remnant outflow from copious storms Thursday somewhere in the state. This will provide a focus for additonal convection with best chances in central GA. Some uncertainty on coverage in northern GA, but with moisture likely present if front remains north, hard to rule out airmass storms. Into the weekend, little change in the upper air pattern means that southerly flow from the Gulf will continue to move into the area, bringing with it the lovely moist airmass. Airmass thunderstorms expected to continue. Open tropical wave moves in Monday/Tuesday and looks to bring even more moist air to the party, so the airmass storms should continue. QPF values continue to be 2-4" over the area through the period, with much higher amounts possible where storms train or affect the same areas day by day. WPC has held a Marginal Risk of flash flooding for Friday, and expect that to likely be the case for the next few days past if the forecast continues to hold. Severe concerns remain low overall, but not zero. Will need to see if the front/remnant outflow can help briefly organize anything on Friday, but otherwise forecast effective bulk shear values remain well below the threshold for organized convection. MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg will be possible each day per forecasts, so that can create the potential for taller more persistent updrafts that could be capable of some isolated damaging wind gusts when they collapse. Lusk && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Thunderstorms are beginning to pop over the area with a cu field ~4kft. Expecting these scattered storms to prevail through ~23z. Looking at tomorrow morning, there is a low end chance for showers to and MVFR CIGS between 08 and 11z. After that, into the afternoon tomorrow expecting another round of diurnal showers and thunderstorms to affect the area. Winds will shift to the NW tomorrow afternoon. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Low to medium on lack of showers and MVFR tomorrow morning. Medium on all other elements. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 72 93 71 87 / 40 60 50 80 Atlanta 73 91 71 85 / 50 80 50 80 Blairsville 66 84 65 79 / 70 70 40 80 Cartersville 70 91 69 85 / 60 70 40 70 Columbus 73 95 73 90 / 30 80 60 80 Gainesville 73 91 71 83 / 50 70 40 80 Macon 72 95 72 91 / 30 70 60 80 Rome 71 91 70 85 / 60 80 30 70 Peachtree City 71 93 70 86 / 40 80 50 80 Vidalia 75 95 74 94 / 30 60 50 80 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...Hernandez