427
FXUS62 KFFC 130724
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
324 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The stretched and poorly-defined tropical low off the Southeast
coast continues to pool Atlantic moisture into the Carolinas and
eastern Georgia today. Gradual warming of both temperatures and dew
points are expected through the short term as this tropical moisture
sits under the periphery of the Bermuda High. Very isolated
thunderstorms are possible in east central Georgia, but have forced
PoPs below 15 percent given the meager chances. Better chances
expected Sunday as Slight Chance PoPs extend west and north,
including central and portions of north Georgia.

This morning, hourly temperature and dewpoint trends have sided a
few degrees cooler than latest guidance, so have nosed down these
grids through early afternoon today. As a result, Heat Index values
will top out around 100 in the hottest areas. Forecast conditions
are still being monitored for Sunday, but at this time, triple digit
Heat Index values look to stay sub-Heat Advisory criteria. Monday
looks to have the highest chance for Heat headlines, though too
early to make the call just yet (see Long Term discussion).

31

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

At a glance:

-Toasty

-A more unsettled pattern will return beginning Wednesday.

The long term picks up on Monday with temps in the triple digits
across most of Georgia. There could be a few areas where Heat
indices could exceed 105 in parts of eastern Georgia; we`ll continue
monitoring through the weekend with regards of issuing heat related
products. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s going
into Tuesday.

Tuesday will mark the beginning of a transition period for most of
the area. Temps are expected to remain in the upper 90s but a trough
in weak zonal flow will enter the south east and get a bit hung up
over the gulf coast. Showers in thunderstorms will be possible for
the southern portion of the CWA on Tuesday afternoon, and remain the
lifting mechanism for afternoon storms for the rest of the forecast
period.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Depending on where the strongest exist of activity unfolds
over the next week, we may need to be on the lookout for isolated
areas of urban flooding. Widespread severe weather is not expected,
but a few afternoon storms could be strong with gusty winds and
frequent lightning.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Expect FEW-BKN 5KFT CU
to develop late morning and lift to 7-8KFT. Light and variable
winds (less than 6KT) expected to favor NE 12-17Z, then shift to
favor more W after 17Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate confidence on wind direction.
High confidence on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          97  73  99  74 /  10  10  20   0
Atlanta         96  76  98  76 /  10   0  20  10
Blairsville     89  68  91  68 /  10  10  20  10
Cartersville    97  72  98  73 /  10   0  10   0
Columbus       100  76 101  77 /  10  10  20  10
Gainesville     95  73  97  74 /  10  10  20   0
Macon           99  75 100  75 /  10  10  20   0
Rome            98  71  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
Peachtree City  98  73  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
Vidalia         98  76  98  78 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...31