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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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919 FXUS62 KFFC 072356 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 756 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Key Messages: - Diurnal convection continues to be the norm for the short term. Severe storms are not expected. - Heat index values will hit triple digits again Monday, but are expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria. Morning cloud cover was slow to improve today, lingering into the early afternoon hours in some locations. This cover prohibited early convective development, though over south Georgia and the northeast GA, storms were quick to make up for it. Storms are expected to remain subsevere, but with PWs above 2 inches, could include heavy downpours. The state remains sandwiched between low pressure to the east, and Tropical Storm Beryl to the west, and will remain so through the short term period. Tropical moisture continues to filter into the state by way of southerly flow, contributing to those high PWs and warm dew points. The hot and muggy conditions continue to fuel the afternoon storm activity, and a few hours of likely PoPs are expected both today and Monday. There is some uncertainty with late evening activity tonight. CAMs are indicating possibility of a mass of storms developing over northeast Georgia late this afternoon to early evening and barreling southeastward along the greater Georgia-South Carolina state border through the wee morning hours Monday. Should this materialize, in addition to the lightning, expect main concerns will be strong winds and heavy rain. Could not rule out severe wind gusts. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour or more are possible, and could lead to localized flooding or flash flooding. 31 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The most notable change for the long term is the infiltration of drier air in the wake of Beryl. As Beryl gets swept up into the trough over the eastern CONUS, the cut off low over the western Atlantic will help steer the system well to our north. This northward shift in the track of the low has undercut our overall rainfall totals through the long term period compared to previous forecasts. Forecast PWATs have also trended down through the week and are now hovering closer to 1.5-2.0" with the highest PWATs situated across far southeastern Georgia. As a result, QPF through the period is now between a quarter of an inch to an inch of rain, with the highest totals in southeast Georgia and the northeast Georgia mountains. Locally higher amounts will be possible in any storms throughout the week. Tuesday still looks to be the most active day of the forecast period with numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. While the relatively drier airmass (at least by July standards) enters the forecast area from the northwest Wednesday, the broad troughing aloft and a boundary bifurcating the forecast area will provide support for diurnal activity in the form of isolated to scattered coverage of storms through the end of the work week. In the absence of any appreciable shear, severe weather is not expected at this time though a few storms could become strong producing gusty winds and frequent lightning. The relatively drier air won`t help cool temperatures off (max daily temperatures are still forecast to reach the low to mid 90s), however, it will help limit widespread triple digit heat index values across the area through the weekend. A few locations along and south of the I-85 corridor will still see uncomfortable triple digit heat index values through Saturday. KAB && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 736 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 SHRA/TSRA still continuing across the area mainly North and South of the ATL area. There have been some isolated storms in the ATL area with PDK being the only airport taking a direct hit from one of the storms. CSG has seen some and AHN may see a storm in the next hour or two. These storms are expected to diminish as the sun sets with mostly clear skies expected overnight. Will see some IFR and maybe some LIFR ceilings move in just before sunrise Mon. These ceilings should diminish by 14-15z and expecting another round of SHRA/TSRA Mon afternoon. Wins expected to mainly out of the SE to SW at 10kt or less. Will see some stronger gust in and around any convective activity. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 72 92 74 94 / 60 60 30 50 Atlanta 75 93 75 94 / 40 60 30 50 Blairsville 68 88 69 89 / 50 70 30 60 Cartersville 72 95 74 95 / 30 60 20 50 Columbus 76 95 76 95 / 40 60 20 50 Gainesville 73 92 74 92 / 60 60 20 50 Macon 75 93 74 94 / 40 60 20 50 Rome 74 96 75 95 / 30 50 20 50 Peachtree City 73 93 74 94 / 40 60 30 50 Vidalia 76 92 76 93 / 40 60 20 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM....KAB AVIATION...01