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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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303 FXUS64 KEWX 200526 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and forecast to remain mainly across the coastal plains, parts of the I-35 corridor including the San Antonio area and southern part of the Rio Grande. This activity is occurring along and ahead of a stationary boundary that stretches from the southern Edwards Plateau to the coastal plains. The shower and thunderstorm activity has been enhanced by outflow boundaries moving all directions. Based on earlier storms and rainfall accumulations (as high as 2 to 5 inches), stronger showers and storms are capable of producing heavy downpours which could lead to minor street flooding including areas with poor drainage. The stationary boundary is forecast to stay over the local area this evening into Saturday with a slight push to the north of its current location. Showers and storms come to an end mid evening for most areas. Can`t rule out a shower or two across the coastal plains overnight into Saturday morning. Overnight lows range from the low to upper 70s. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Saturday morning across the coastal plains with partly cloudy skies across South Central Texas for the afternoon period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are anticipated across the coastal plains on Saturday afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary and where elevated moisture resides. Can`t rule out a few pockets of heavy rain across the coastal plains, otherwise, dry and hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s and up to 101 degrees along the Rio Grande. Saturday`s evening looks quiet with partly cloudy skies and lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Next week`s forecast continues to remain hopeful for wetter and cooler than normal conditions. We will be watching to the northwest Sunday afternoon and night as a disturbance in the upper level trough and weak cold front move south, generating showers and storms. Some of this activity could make in into the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country during this time. There remains a lot of uncertainty with how far south the front makes it Monday, with mesoscale convective influences possibly coming into play. In general we continue to show scattered type coverage of rain chances Monday across all of South Central Texas. The upper level trough axis Tuesday through Thursday moves closer to the area, potentially sharpening right over the forecast area mid to late week. A lot remains to be seen as far as details with timing of disturbances and mesoscale boundaries, which in turn leads low confidence this far out in details on placement of higher rainfall amounts as well as timing of precipitation. The pattern certainly isn`t one we have seen in recent summers, and does favor odds tilted towards wetter and cooler than average conditions. In general, ensemble data indicates high odds (>70%) for average rainfall amounts of at least 1 inch across almost the entire area next week, and medium odds (40-60%) of greater than 2 inches of rainfall through portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. With tropical precipitable water values of 2-2.25" pooled over the area mid week there is always the potential for much higher amounts in localized areas. With the more active pattern comes increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures in the forecast. Seasonable highs are expected Sunday from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees cooling to the mid 80s to low 90s each day Tuesday onward. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR flight conditions prevail through the period with few to sct pockets of mid and high level clouds. Winds remain light below 10 knots with the variable conditions overnight turning more east- southeasterly this afternoon and south-southeasterly into and through tonight. KDRT trends generally out of the east-southeast during the entire period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 98 76 96 75 / 0 0 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 74 95 75 / 0 0 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 74 96 75 / 0 0 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 95 74 94 73 / 0 0 30 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 102 80 100 79 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 74 94 74 / 0 0 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 98 74 96 75 / 10 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 73 95 74 / 0 0 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 95 74 94 75 / 10 0 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 96 76 96 76 / 10 0 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 97 76 96 77 / 10 0 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...76 Aviation...Brady