952
FXUS64 KEWX 200700
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
200 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The short term period will host the quietest and warmest weather
within the coming week across South-Central Texas. The pattern
undergoes transition as the weak front over the region loses it`s
influence. Additionally, the upper level disturbance that helped
trend as a companion to the front is advancing eastward from
Louisiana. Attention turns northward on Sunday with some initial
influence from approaching upper level disturbances within the
clockwise flow coming around the periphery of the ridge centered
over the western CONUS. Another surface boundary across north-
Central Texas will also become an increasing factor as well. The
forecast today trends dry outside from a low end chance of an
isolated shower or storm across the coastal plains with the sea
breeze. A mild and quiet forecast is expected from Saturday night
through Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon should see the return
potential for some isolated to scattered convection with highest
chances (30 to 40 percent) focusing from the Southern Edwards
Plateau into the Hill Country while the Rio Grande Plains could
remain left out at least through Sunday afternoon. Daytime highs
will be slightly above average today with most locations reaching
into the mid to upper 90s while 100s will be possible for areas
along the Rio Grande. Sunday will be seasonably hot across the
region once again but highs will trend a degree or two lower in
comparison to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Sunday evening the surface front will have shifted back into North
Texas with this feature expected to again move south Monday and
Tuesday before weakening. Showers and thunderstorms may move into
the area from the northwest Sunday night, mainly reaching into
portions of the southern Edwards Plateau or Hill Country.
Precipitation chances spread over the majority of South Central
Texas on Monday with the best chances for rain over the northern
portions of the area this day. Models are trending with more
scattered coverage during the day so many may not see precipitation
during this time.

Troughing over the Central/Southern Plains deepens Monday night into
mid to late week with some mid-level disturbances expected to move
over the area. This will keep precipitation chances in the forecast
through the extended period, although exact details are still too
early to pinpoint. Overall, models have been fairly consistent with
this troughing feature and do expect a more wet and cool pattern to
take hold. Mid to late week, highs in the 80s and low 90s are
forecast thanks to the increased cloud cover and rain chances.

GEFS ensemble guidance continues to indicate a good chance (70% or
more) for most of the area to see at least one inch of rain through
Friday, and around a 30-60% chance for at least 2 inches. WPC has
introduced a level 2 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall over portions
of South Central Texas each day Monday through Thursday morning as
the potential for isolated flooding. The flooding risk may increase
through the week depending on where rain falls each day and
existing wet ground conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR flight conditions prevail through the period with few to sct
pockets of mid and high level clouds. Winds remain light below 10
knots with the variable conditions overnight turning more east-
southeasterly this afternoon and south-southeasterly into and
through tonight. KDRT trends generally out of the east-southeast
during the entire period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  76  96  75 /   0   0  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  74  95  75 /   0   0  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  74  96  75 /   0   0  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            95  74  94  73 /   0   0  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  80 100  79 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  74  94  74 /   0   0  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             98  74  96  75 /  10   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  73  95  74 /   0   0  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  74  94  75 /  10   0  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  76  96  76 /  10   0  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           97  76  96  77 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...27
Aviation...Brady