419
FXUS64 KEWX 201708
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The short term period will host the quietest and warmest weather
within the coming week across South-Central Texas. The pattern
undergoes transition as the weak front over the region loses it`s
influence. Additionally, the upper level disturbance that helped
trend as a companion to the front is advancing eastward from
Louisiana. Attention turns northward on Sunday with some initial
influence from approaching upper level disturbances within the
clockwise flow coming around the periphery of the ridge centered
over the western CONUS. Another surface boundary across north-
Central Texas will also become an increasing factor as well. The
forecast today trends dry outside from a low end chance of an
isolated shower or storm across the coastal plains with the sea
breeze. A mild and quiet forecast is expected from Saturday night
through Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon should see the return
potential for some isolated to scattered convection with highest
chances (30 to 40 percent) focusing from the Southern Edwards
Plateau into the Hill Country while the Rio Grande Plains could
remain left out at least through Sunday afternoon. Daytime highs
will be slightly above average today with most locations reaching
into the mid to upper 90s while 100s will be possible for areas
along the Rio Grande. Sunday will be seasonably hot across the
region once again but highs will trend a degree or two lower in
comparison to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Sunday evening the surface front will have shifted back into North
Texas with this feature expected to again move south Monday and
Tuesday before weakening. Showers and thunderstorms may move into
the area from the northwest Sunday night, mainly reaching into
portions of the southern Edwards Plateau or Hill Country.
Precipitation chances spread over the majority of South Central
Texas on Monday with the best chances for rain over the northern
portions of the area this day. Models are trending with more
scattered coverage during the day so many may not see precipitation
during this time.

Troughing over the Central/Southern Plains deepens Monday night into
mid to late week with some mid-level disturbances expected to move
over the area. This will keep precipitation chances in the forecast
through the extended period, although exact details are still too
early to pinpoint. Overall, models have been fairly consistent with
this troughing feature and do expect a more wet and cool pattern to
take hold. Mid to late week, highs in the 80s and low 90s are
forecast thanks to the increased cloud cover and rain chances.

GEFS ensemble guidance continues to indicate a good chance (70% or
more) for most of the area to see at least one inch of rain through
Friday, and around a 30-60% chance for at least 2 inches. WPC has
introduced a level 2 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall over portions
of South Central Texas each day Monday through Thursday morning as
the potential for isolated flooding. The flooding risk may increase
through the week depending on where rain falls each day and
existing wet ground conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions today and tonight outside of any stray or isolated
precipitation. Main forecast concern is much more coverage of
SHRA/TSRA acitivity expected on Sunday. 12Z convective allowing
models are bullish on scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA developing
Sunday afternoon across the Hill Country moving south into portions
of the I-35 corridor. We will be including a PROB30 TSRA in the
18Z-24Z Sunday time frame in the AUS and SAT TAFs. This will be
refined further in future TAF packages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  96  75  95 /   0  20  10  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  95  75  93 /   0  20  10  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  96  75  92 /   0  20  10  60
Burnet Muni Airport            74  94  73  90 /   0  30  20  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 100  79  98 /   0  10  10  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  94  74  91 /   0  20  10  70
Hondo Muni Airport             74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  95  74  93 /   0  20  10  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  94  75  90 /   0  20   0  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  76  93 /   0  20  10  60
Stinson Muni Airport           76  96  77  94 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...27
Aviation...76