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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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903 FXUS64 KEWX 161803 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 103 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Clear skies are in place across most of south central Texas this morning. The exception is across portions of the Rio Grande plains south of Eagle Pass where some high clouds are noted. Some brief low clouds may develop along and east of the I-35 corridor this morning, but most areas can expect mostly sunny skies today. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees as south to southeast winds remain gusty this afternoon. On Wednesday, the overall weather pattern will not change much. Expect another day of highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. We did add a mention of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast for the coastal plains Wednesday afternoon, with a dry forecast intact elsewhere. A few spots along and east of the I-35 corridor may see some brief heat index values near 107 degrees today and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 An upper level low moving across the Great Lakes into Thursday will help to carve out a more pronounced trough axis across the Ozarks through east Texas during the second half of this week and into this upcoming weekend. The upper level ridge also slides to the west becoming centered across the western CONUS into the Pacific Northwest. A surface front advances southward into Central Texas from Thursday into Friday and could possibly slip into our region pending outflow. The boundary along with the advection of some higher PWATs helps to provide the focus for returning shower and thunderstorm chances. While the front does look to lift northward and/or fizzle out entering the weekend, the higher PWAT values linger and help to promote at least continued daily lower end (20 to 30%) chances for showers and storms this weekend. Medium range guidance, including a signal within the ensemble means, show the possibility of a secondary front or at least another southerly push of the original boundary southwards towards Central Texas into the start of next week. This combined with an influx of even higher PWATS may yield to some better rain and storm chances entering early next week. As seen last week, a weak steering flow aloft could result in slow storm motions and some potential for isolated pockets of locally heavy rainfall. With the returning cloud cover and moisture, expect for daytime highs along with the overnight lows to gradually lower to near and even below seasonal average. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through the period. South to southeast winds 9 to 13 knots with gusts up to 21 knots are possible through 00Z Wed. Southerly winds diminish to 9 knots or less this evening and continue through Wednesday morning. Some low clouds or spotty MVFR cigs can`t be ruled out from KAUS around dawn and daybreak. We continue to monitor and adjust the forecast accordingly. Wind speeds pick up a bit on Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 99 75 97 / 0 10 0 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 98 76 97 / 0 10 0 20 Burnet Muni Airport 75 98 75 95 / 0 10 10 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 102 80 100 / 0 0 0 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 99 76 96 / 0 0 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 75 98 75 97 / 0 10 0 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 98 75 97 / 0 10 0 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 95 75 93 / 0 20 0 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 98 77 97 / 0 10 0 20 Stinson Muni Airport 77 99 77 98 / 0 10 0 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...05 Aviation...17