381
FXUS64 KEWX 181134
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

It`s a quiet start to the overnight with pockets of mainly mid and
high level clouds across the region. A decaying outflow boundary was
able to slip into our northern counties last evening but wasn`t able
to generate much, if any, precipitation. Later this morning around
the 12Z hour, we are anticipating for a band of isolated to
scattered convection to establish across our northern counties with
moisture convergence and lift in association with a weak surface
front. This band of activity should slowly push from north to south
through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon into our
central and southern portions of the area. There may be additional
spotty isolated showers or storms outside of this band of activity
but the greatest focus today should concentrate immediately along
that front. Isolated locally heavy downpours along with gusty winds
will be possible with the heaviest storms and any residual outflow
boundaries. Most activity fades with loss of daytime heating but a
lingering opportunity may exist through the night across the coastal
plains and our southern most locations. The latest model guidance
has really backed off on rain chances on Friday where only some
slight chances exist from the Southern Edwards Plateau through the
southern portions of the region and into the coastal plains.

Temperatures become more seasonable today through Friday with result
of the increased moisture/cloud cover today but also with the more
variable/northerly flow that establishes for a time in wake of the
weak frontal boundary. Daytime highs will mainly trend from the low
to mid 90s across the region except for locations immediately near
the Rio Grande. Overnight lows tonight into Friday morning trend
slightly lower as well, especially in the Hill Country. Most would
start off in the low to mid 70s though.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Rain chances on Saturday remain fairly low and will be favored over
the coastal plains as the sea breeze moves inland. We will also keep
some low rain chances in the forecast across portions of the southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country as some activity farther north
across west central Texas may drift southward into the mentioned
area. Highs on Saturday should be very close to climatological
normals for mid-July. It still appears we will see an increase in
rain chances beginning Sunday afternoon across the southern Edwards
Plateau as a series of mid-level disturbances begin moving in from
the northwest. In addition, the medium range models also show a cold
front moving southward across Texas. The timing of the front will
largely be determined by how much convection develops along and
behind this feature. Timing of the front will likely change, but for
now most of the guidance tends to favor the front moving into the
region late Monday into early Tuesday. While the cold front may not
move through the entire region, it will serve as a focus for
additional shower and thunderstorm development into the middle
portion of next week. With an upper trough over the region, outflow
boundaries/weak front and well above normal moisture levels, the
setup certainly appears favorable for continued rain chances and
temperatures generally below normal. The concern for some locally
heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out given the environmental setup
consisting of weak flow aloft and atmospheric moisture levels
possibly near the 90th percentile. For now, it appears the southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country remain favored for locally heavy
rain as we head into early next week, but this may change. The
forecast will no doubt be refined as we head into early next week, so
stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A scattered line of convection that has developed along a weak cold
front continues to advance southward across South-Central Texas from
this morning into this afternoon. KAUS is the first terminal where
impacts may be felt with a most likely time frame of between 12Z to
16Z. Next would be KSAT and KSSF with possible impacts around 16Z to
22Z. With these trending as the most likely timeframe for impacts,
have included TEMPO groups at those sites with -TSRA and the
possibility for brief MVFR conditions. Winds could become gusty and
variable within any thunderstorms and/or with outflow. Some spotty
shower or storm activity could extend outside of these targeted time
ranges. As a result, included VCSH/VCTS to cover this possibility.
While the activity could potentially fizzle prior to reaching KDRT,
had elected to keep a VCSH mention there as well from late this
afternoon into early this evening. The winds outside from any
convection and outflow influences should generally remain light but
directions could shift and become quite variable at times pending
location of the weak front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  75  96  74 /  40  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  74  95  73 /  40  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  74  95  73 /  30  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  72  94  71 /  40  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  78 101  79 /  20  10  20   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  73  94  71 /  50  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  74  97  74 /  30  10  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  73  95  72 /  30  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  74  94  73 /  40  20  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  76  96  75 /  30  10  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  76  97  76 /  30  10  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...Brady