120
FXUS64 KEWX 192332
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing
and forecast to remain mainly across the coastal plains, parts of
the I-35 corridor including the San Antonio area and southern part
of the Rio Grande. This activity is occurring along and ahead of a
stationary boundary that stretches from the southern Edwards Plateau
to the coastal plains. The shower and thunderstorm activity has been
enhanced by outflow boundaries moving all directions. Based on
earlier storms and rainfall accumulations (as high as 2 to 5
inches), stronger showers and storms are capable of producing heavy
downpours which could lead to minor street flooding including areas
with poor drainage.

The stationary boundary is forecast to stay over the local area this
evening into Saturday with a slight push to the north of its current
location. Showers and storms come to an end mid evening for most
areas. Can`t rule out a shower or two across the coastal plains
overnight into Saturday morning. Overnight lows range from the low
to upper 70s.

Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Saturday
morning across the coastal plains with partly cloudy skies across
South Central Texas for the afternoon period. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are anticipated across the coastal plains on
Saturday afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary and where elevated
moisture resides. Can`t rule out a few pockets of heavy rain across
the coastal plains, otherwise, dry and hot with highs in the mid to
upper 90s and up to 101 degrees along the Rio Grande. Saturday`s
evening looks quiet with partly cloudy skies and lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Next week`s forecast continues to remain hopeful for wetter and
cooler than normal conditions. We will be watching to the northwest
Sunday afternoon and night as a disturbance in the upper level trough
and weak cold front move south, generating showers and storms. Some
of this activity could make in into the southern Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country during this time. There remains a lot of uncertainty
with how far south the front makes it Monday, with mesoscale
convective influences possibly coming into play. In general we
continue to show scattered type coverage of rain chances Monday
across all of South Central Texas.

The upper level trough axis Tuesday through Thursday moves closer to
the area, potentially sharpening right over the forecast area mid to
late week. A lot remains to be seen as far as details with timing of
disturbances and mesoscale boundaries, which in turn leads low
confidence this far out in details on placement of higher rainfall
amounts as well as timing of precipitation. The pattern certainly
isn`t one we have seen in recent summers, and does favor odds tilted
towards wetter and cooler than average conditions.

In general, ensemble data indicates high odds (>70%) for average
rainfall amounts of at least 1 inch across almost the entire area
next week, and medium odds (40-60%) of greater than 2 inches of
rainfall through portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and
Coastal Plains. With tropical precipitable water values of 2-2.25"
pooled over the area mid week there is always the potential for much
higher amounts in localized areas.

With the more active pattern comes increased cloud cover and cooler
temperatures in the forecast. Seasonable highs are expected Sunday
from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees cooling to the mid 80s to low
90s each day Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

ISOLD SHRA/TSRA over the Winter Garden region this evening and near
the Coastal Plains on Saturday will have no impacts on the TAF sites.
VFR flying conditions will prevail. Any CIGs/VSBYs in SHRA/TSRA will
only briefly be MVFR/IFR. Easterly to southeasterly winds of less
than 10 KTs will prevail, although could be erratic with gusts up to
30 KTs in and near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  96  72  96 /   0  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  96  74  96 /   0  10   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  96  74  94 /   0   0   0  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 102  80 101 /  10   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  95  73  94 /   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             74  97  74  96 /  10  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  95  72  95 /   0  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  93  74  94 /  10  10   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  97  76  96 /  10  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  97  76  97 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...76
Aviation...04