456
FXUS64 KEPZ 180526
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1126 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Besides a few thunderstorms through early this evening, hot and
dry conditions will prevail through much of the next week. High
temperatures over the lowlands will remain in the upper 90s to 105
degrees with Wednesday looking like the hottest of next week.
Thunderstorm chances start to return to the far west Wednesday and
slowly move east toward the Rio Grande Valley by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

This evening will be the last one where we have any kind of decent
thunderstorm coverage until the middle of next week. A couple
disturbances moving through will keep isolated to low end
scattered storms going into the mid evening.

Models continue to advertise a pattern with dominant upper high
in the NM/TX Panhandle area into next weekend. This will wrap
around drier air to much of the CWA and really limit, possibly
completely, any thunderstorm chances in the area through early
next week. For now kept mention of any storms out of the CWA, just
keeping a few 10 Pops near the NM Bootheel. Temperatures will
remain well above normal, but do drop a few degrees compared to
the last 2 days, so will just let Heat Advisory expire at midnight.
Winds through this period will remain out of the east to
southeast, just never having a Gulf of Mexico tap. Overnight winds
could get gusty the next few nights along the western slopes of
the Franklins and Organs.

As we head into Wed through Sat, the high does take a slight
eastward shift towards north-central TX, allowing some moisture to
make it`s way back into far western zones. This is also the time
when areas along the Rio Grande Valley will see temperatures warm
back up toward Heat Advisory criteria. EC is a little hotter than
the GFS, but GFS Ensembles do show some support for H85 temps
getting close to 35C. There is some differences that show up in
the models going into Fri/Sat, most notably with a Pacific NW
storm system. GFS is fairly potent with this system, but doesn`t
progress it into the Great Basin until after the forecast period.
The EC has trended quicker and remains weaker with this feature.
Ensemble means seem to favor EC which given it`s still late
August, the GFS seems to be overdoing strength of the low. With
the EC solution, by Fri/Sat, the upper trough moves across the
Rockies, helping to suppress the upper high over our area and push
center toward the MS River Valley. Start pushing some low Pops
further toward the RGV by the end of the period expecting some
moisture to get pushed eastward. Should also see a trend toward
slowly "cooler" temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through the period. Much of the t-storm
activity is over with, just light showers focusing over the
Continental Divide and west tonight. Winds remain light and
southerly overnight with skies clearing east to west tonight. Light
southeast breezes expected during the afternoon with much of the
area staying dry. KDMN has the best shot at seeing a shower/t-storm
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Generally hot and dry conditions for the next several days with
min RH`s mainly in the teens with some 20s in the mountains. Winds
generally east to southeast at 10-15 mph during the afternoons.
Some moisture starts to return to the far west by Wednesday and
continuing into the end of the week with storm chances moving
a slight bit eastward each day. Winds will be in the 5-15 mph
range through the period, so critical conditions are not expected
to develop. Vent rates will remain good to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79 102  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            71  96  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               72 100  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               69  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               53  75  53  75 /   0  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    72  97  72  98 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              65  93  66  92 /  30  10   0  10
Deming                   71 100  72 100 /  20   0   0   0
Lordsburg                70 100  71  99 /  30   0  10   0
West El Paso Metro       78 100  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                69 100  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             73 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               70  93  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             75 100  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           73  99  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            66  99  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    70 101  70 101 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 73 101  74  99 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande                71 100  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  56  87  56  86 /   0  10   0   0
Mescalero                57  86  58  87 /   0  10   0  10
Timberon                 54  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  60  89  60  89 /  30   0   0   0
Hillsboro                65  96  66  96 /  20   0   0   0
Spaceport                67  98  67  98 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             56  90  57  91 /  30  10  10  10
Hurley                   66  96  67  96 /  30   0   0   0
Cliff                    62 101  63 102 /  20  10   0  10
Mule Creek               60  95  61  95 /  30  10  10  10
Faywood                  67  95  68  95 /  30   0   0   0
Animas                   69  99  70  99 /  30  10  10   0
Hachita                  69  98  70  98 /  30   0  10   0
Antelope Wells           68  99  69  97 /  30  10  10   0
Cloverdale               65  94  66  94 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira