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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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456 FXUS64 KEPZ 180526 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1126 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Besides a few thunderstorms through early this evening, hot and dry conditions will prevail through much of the next week. High temperatures over the lowlands will remain in the upper 90s to 105 degrees with Wednesday looking like the hottest of next week. Thunderstorm chances start to return to the far west Wednesday and slowly move east toward the Rio Grande Valley by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 This evening will be the last one where we have any kind of decent thunderstorm coverage until the middle of next week. A couple disturbances moving through will keep isolated to low end scattered storms going into the mid evening. Models continue to advertise a pattern with dominant upper high in the NM/TX Panhandle area into next weekend. This will wrap around drier air to much of the CWA and really limit, possibly completely, any thunderstorm chances in the area through early next week. For now kept mention of any storms out of the CWA, just keeping a few 10 Pops near the NM Bootheel. Temperatures will remain well above normal, but do drop a few degrees compared to the last 2 days, so will just let Heat Advisory expire at midnight. Winds through this period will remain out of the east to southeast, just never having a Gulf of Mexico tap. Overnight winds could get gusty the next few nights along the western slopes of the Franklins and Organs. As we head into Wed through Sat, the high does take a slight eastward shift towards north-central TX, allowing some moisture to make it`s way back into far western zones. This is also the time when areas along the Rio Grande Valley will see temperatures warm back up toward Heat Advisory criteria. EC is a little hotter than the GFS, but GFS Ensembles do show some support for H85 temps getting close to 35C. There is some differences that show up in the models going into Fri/Sat, most notably with a Pacific NW storm system. GFS is fairly potent with this system, but doesn`t progress it into the Great Basin until after the forecast period. The EC has trended quicker and remains weaker with this feature. Ensemble means seem to favor EC which given it`s still late August, the GFS seems to be overdoing strength of the low. With the EC solution, by Fri/Sat, the upper trough moves across the Rockies, helping to suppress the upper high over our area and push center toward the MS River Valley. Start pushing some low Pops further toward the RGV by the end of the period expecting some moisture to get pushed eastward. Should also see a trend toward slowly "cooler" temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Mainly VFR conditions through the period. Much of the t-storm activity is over with, just light showers focusing over the Continental Divide and west tonight. Winds remain light and southerly overnight with skies clearing east to west tonight. Light southeast breezes expected during the afternoon with much of the area staying dry. KDMN has the best shot at seeing a shower/t-storm tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Generally hot and dry conditions for the next several days with min RH`s mainly in the teens with some 20s in the mountains. Winds generally east to southeast at 10-15 mph during the afternoons. Some moisture starts to return to the far west by Wednesday and continuing into the end of the week with storm chances moving a slight bit eastward each day. Winds will be in the 5-15 mph range through the period, so critical conditions are not expected to develop. Vent rates will remain good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 79 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 71 96 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 72 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 69 99 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 75 53 75 / 0 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 72 97 72 98 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 65 93 66 92 / 30 10 0 10 Deming 71 100 72 100 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 100 71 99 / 30 0 10 0 West El Paso Metro 78 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 69 100 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 101 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 70 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 75 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 75 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 73 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 66 99 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 70 101 70 101 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 73 101 74 99 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 71 100 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 56 87 56 86 / 0 10 0 0 Mescalero 57 86 58 87 / 0 10 0 10 Timberon 54 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 60 89 60 89 / 30 0 0 0 Hillsboro 65 96 66 96 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 67 98 67 98 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 90 57 91 / 30 10 10 10 Hurley 66 96 67 96 / 30 0 0 0 Cliff 62 101 63 102 / 20 10 0 10 Mule Creek 60 95 61 95 / 30 10 10 10 Faywood 67 95 68 95 / 30 0 0 0 Animas 69 99 70 99 / 30 10 10 0 Hachita 69 98 70 98 / 30 0 10 0 Antelope Wells 68 99 69 97 / 30 10 10 0 Cloverdale 65 94 66 94 / 30 10 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira