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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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433 FXUS64 KEPZ 131502 AAB AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 902 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 852 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Above average moisture and optimal positioning of synoptic features will enhance the potential for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening. Given PWATs of over 1 in across the Sacramento Mts and the likelihood for storms to train over the high terrain, did opt to hoist a Flash Flood Watch to cover the South Fork and Salt fire burn scars. Post training, storm motions are anticipated to be from southwest to northeast at around 12 to 15 mph. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 High pressure aloft is retreating back to our east, and this will allow the deeper plume of monsoon moisture to move back over the Borderland today. We expect an increase in the amount of rain showers and thunderstorms today as we move into the afternoon and evening hours. Despite the added clouds and rain potential, we will continue quite warm, with afternoon temperatures above normal, and near 100 degrees across the lowlands. We will keep fair chances for storms again Wednesday, before seeing high pressure build back over later in the week. This will trend our temperatures warmer and our conditions drier going into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Models are in good agreement in contracting the elongated E-W upper ridge back to the east of our region, as a western U.S. upper trough moves east into the Rockies this afternoon. This will create a weakness in the upper ridge directly over our area. The deeper monsoon moisture channel now over AZ will continue will continue to shift east and refocus over S NM and Far West Texas today. The weakness in the upper ridge over our area will allow for better upper-level instability. Thus we do expect an increase in shower and storm coverage over the region today; with pretty uniform coverage from east to west, across our CWA. Temperature wise, the added moisture should result in more/earlier clouds and a slight drop in afternoon max temperatures. Still, we stand a chance at another 100 degree day across the lowest elevations of the lowlands this afternoon. For tomorrow, we see today`s minor upper trough bump east over the SE corner of NM, with building high pressure nudging in from the west coast, across the N Baja. This should skew our best moisture over our eastern areas, with or western areas starting to see some drying. Still we will have plenty of moisture, for scattered rain and storms from the Rio Grande eastward, and likely more limited, isolated storms west of the Rio Grande. Temperatures should be pretty static, as the main pattern is similar. For Thursday, the larger scale models agree that a progressive pattern will bump the trough out of the region, as the upper ridge to our west centers over S AZ and NM. The flow pattern will interrupt the influx of monsoon moisture, with N flow aloft. This should mean the bulk of our moisture gets shoved S and W of our region, as drier continental air moves in from the north. We expect to see a large drop in showers and storms, along with a bump upward in temperatures for Thursday through much of next week. Daily highs for the lowlands will be in the 100 to 105 range. We will be considering the need for heat advisories for the El Paso area in the coming forecast packages. For the weekend and into next week, the upper ridge looks to strengthen and park over our area. This will mean a stretch of hot and dry conditions, with very limited storm activity and well above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions for all the terminals through at least 18Z...as we see generally variable light winds AOB 10-12kts and skies FEW/SCT120 w/CIGS west of the Continental Divide. AFT 18Z ISO/SCT TSRA ovr area mtns, with ISO MVFR due to lower CIGS and VSBY in VCTY of storms due to rain. AFT 21-22Z ISO/SCT TSRA developing over the lowlands, and possibly in VCTY of terminals. Expect increasing clouds to BKN/tempo OVC near storms with CIGS lowering to 060-080 near storms. Some outflow winds will mean VRB 25G40kts could impact terminals. TEMPO and brief MVFR conditions in VCTY or over terminals with any storms aft 22Z through at least 06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Fire weather concerns remain generally low, but will trend upward a bit for the weekend and beyond as we transition to a warmer and drier pattern. But first we have an actual increase in moisture today as the upper ridge shifts east and a minor west coast trough moves in from the west. This will shift the deeper moisture over AZ back over our region this afternoon. This should result in more clouds, and and increase in showers and thunderstorms across all of our fire zones. Temperatures will still be above normal, and RH will remain well above critical levels. Winds will continue mostly light to moderate, with the exception of some erratic and gusty storm outflow winds. Starting Wednesday we will begin to trend drier as the upper trough shifts east and a new high pressure ridge begins to move over from the west. This pattern will begin to shift moisture east for Wednesday, with our western zones beginning to dry. Thursday through the weekend, we will see the monsoonal moisture shoved out of the region to our south, as N flow brings in drier continental air. We will see temperatures rise, minRH drop well into the teens, and a lack of showers and storms (at least quite isolated). Fire weather concerns will trend toward elevated, but we won`t have the winds necessary for large growth of any new fire starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 101 77 100 78 / 20 40 10 10 Sierra Blanca 93 68 92 69 / 30 50 40 20 Las Cruces 100 71 98 72 / 30 50 10 10 Alamogordo 98 68 96 71 / 30 40 10 10 Cloudcroft 74 52 72 55 / 70 40 50 10 Truth or Consequences 96 69 94 71 / 40 40 10 10 Silver City 88 62 88 63 / 80 40 20 10 Deming 98 69 96 70 / 40 50 10 10 Lordsburg 94 67 94 69 / 60 40 10 10 West El Paso Metro 99 74 97 76 / 20 50 10 10 Dell City 100 70 98 70 / 20 30 20 10 Fort Hancock 101 72 98 73 / 30 50 30 20 Loma Linda 93 67 90 69 / 30 50 20 10 Fabens 99 72 98 74 / 20 40 10 10 Santa Teresa 98 72 95 73 / 30 50 10 10 White Sands HQ 98 73 96 75 / 30 50 20 10 Jornada Range 98 69 95 71 / 40 50 10 10 Hatch 99 68 98 70 / 40 50 10 10 Columbus 97 71 95 74 / 40 50 10 10 Orogrande 97 69 95 71 / 30 40 20 10 Mayhill 86 57 83 58 / 60 40 50 10 Mescalero 86 56 85 58 / 70 40 50 10 Timberon 85 55 82 57 / 50 40 40 10 Winston 85 57 86 59 / 80 40 20 10 Hillsboro 94 64 92 67 / 60 50 20 10 Spaceport 97 67 95 69 / 40 40 10 10 Lake Roberts 88 56 88 58 / 80 40 30 10 Hurley 92 62 91 64 / 60 40 10 0 Cliff 98 62 98 65 / 70 30 10 0 Mule Creek 90 63 90 65 / 60 30 10 0 Faywood 92 64 90 66 / 70 50 10 10 Animas 94 67 93 68 / 70 50 20 10 Hachita 95 66 93 68 / 60 50 10 10 Antelope Wells 93 65 90 66 / 70 50 20 10 Cloverdale 88 63 87 64 / 80 50 30 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter