Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
502 FXUS64 KEPZ 072355 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 555 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 548 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Temperatures above normal into next weekend. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected daily with the highest chance for storms in the mountains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Very little change in the pattern over the next week with the upper high currently over NM/AZ border shifts westward and flow over the area goes from NE to NW back to NE. Moisture over the area gradually decreases as flow turns more NW and there is never a good moisture tap directly from the Gulf. PW`s in the 1.1-1.4" range this morning but by Wed will be down to 0.8-1.1" and stay in that range into the weekend. This is enough for daily storm chances to start over the mountains and then some isolated storms to move onto the lowlands. NBM PoPs seem a little overdone, especially mid to late week with 50-70% over the southwest almost daily given the 50+ degree dew point spreads forecast as high temperatures approach or surpass 100. Thu to Fri look to be the hottest days. EC says Thu is hottest, GFS says Fri. Looking at ensemble means and spreads, seems there is better agreement Fri will be the peak heating day. Doesn`t look like a widespread Heat Advisory day, but just around the El Paso area. Going into Sun/Mon, as the flow turns more north and northeast, moisture modestly increases but the overall flow is more supportive of daily thunderstorms. Temperatures also look to cool down back under 100 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Showers and thunderstorms have diminished at most terminals, but will hang around for another hour or two at LRU. Otherwise, expect some variably gusty winds as outflow boundaries play themselves out this evening, with VFR conditions prevailing. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move from the NE to SW out of the higher terrain on Tuesday, with PROB30s warranted at ELP and LRU. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 There will be a gradual warming trend over the week with high temperatures reaching 100-105 over most of the lowlands by Thu. There will be some modest moisture still around but expect Min RH`s in the mid to upper teens in the lowlands with 20s and 30s in the mountains. There will be a scattered storms daily in the mountains with some moving onto the lowlands with the best chance being through Tuesday. Winds will generally be under 15 mph but with good mixing heights, vent rates will be very good through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 75 100 76 / 20 30 20 20 Sierra Blanca 90 69 92 70 / 40 10 20 20 Las Cruces 97 67 99 71 / 20 30 20 20 Alamogordo 95 69 97 70 / 40 10 30 10 Cloudcroft 72 51 73 53 / 70 10 50 10 Truth or Consequences 97 70 100 72 / 30 30 10 10 Silver City 92 64 94 67 / 40 30 30 30 Deming 101 69 101 70 / 20 30 20 30 Lordsburg 99 69 100 72 / 30 30 20 30 West El Paso Metro 97 74 98 77 / 20 30 20 20 Dell City 94 69 95 70 / 30 10 20 10 Fort Hancock 98 73 99 75 / 40 10 20 20 Loma Linda 89 66 91 69 / 30 10 20 20 Fabens 97 73 100 75 / 30 20 20 20 Santa Teresa 96 71 98 75 / 20 40 20 20 White Sands HQ 97 72 99 75 / 30 30 20 20 Jornada Range 97 66 99 69 / 30 30 20 10 Hatch 100 69 102 72 / 30 30 20 20 Columbus 100 72 101 74 / 20 40 20 30 Orogrande 94 69 95 71 / 40 20 20 10 Mayhill 81 56 84 59 / 70 10 50 10 Mescalero 84 56 86 57 / 70 10 50 10 Timberon 79 54 81 56 / 70 10 40 10 Winston 89 59 91 62 / 40 30 20 20 Hillsboro 96 66 99 69 / 40 30 20 30 Spaceport 96 67 98 69 / 40 30 10 20 Lake Roberts 93 55 92 57 / 50 30 30 30 Hurley 95 64 96 67 / 40 30 30 30 Cliff 100 59 98 63 / 40 30 30 30 Mule Creek 96 58 96 62 / 30 30 30 30 Faywood 93 66 95 69 / 40 30 20 30 Animas 99 69 100 72 / 30 30 20 30 Hachita 98 68 99 71 / 20 40 20 30 Antelope Wells 97 67 97 71 / 50 40 20 30 Cloverdale 92 64 94 70 / 60 30 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman