955
FXUS64 KEPZ 121737
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1137 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

With high pressure nearby, the Borderland will continue hot, with
above normal temperatures. Most days this week will see afternoon
highs around 100 degrees, and above, across the lowlands. Monsoon
moisture is limited and focused out west today, with only isolated
lowlands storms expected. Area mountains will see most of the
storms today. The moisture shifts back over our region for Tuesday
and Wednesday, as the upper high shifts east. We will see better
rain and storm chances these days. After mid-week, the upper high
builds back our region with warmer temperatures, and fewer storms
to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The western extent of our current, E-W elongated high pressure
ridge sits over NM. This feature, and the clockwise flow, around
it has shoved the deeper moisture over AZ. This means our
atmospheric moisture content has been below monsoon season
normals, resulting in a stark reduction in convective activity
over the weekend. Today we start to transition back to a more
moist atmosphere, as the upper high begins to shift east. Models
do show PWATs up from around 0.80" back to around 1.00", and
dewpoints will be up about 5 degrees. The global models indicate a
precip pattern with most of the rain/storms over AZ, bleeding into
the NM Continental Divide area, with some storms over most of our
mountain areas, and few over our lowlands. However the CAM models
do show a more uniform and widespread pattern of airmass type
storms across most of our lowlands. With the upper high weakening
a bit, we do expect the slight uptick in moisture, and the slight
loss of upper-level stabilization, to result in an increase in
storms across the region today. Models suggest the majority of the
storms will be focused west of the Rio Grande Valley, but evening
storm outflow mean any location could see a late-day storms. We
are also looking at another afternoon where temperatures will be
well above normal, with some lowland locations back in the triple-
digits.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, and likely Thursday, we see the upper
ridge shifting well to our east as a minor Pacific trough pushes
east across the Western U.S., chased by a building ridge off the
west coast. Our area will be in the weakness of a slit ridge, with
a high center to our west and anther to our east. This will allow
that deeper moisture over AZ to migrate back east over our area.
In fact our region should become the focus for moisture over the
SW U.S. These two days should provide our best chances for more
scattered and wide- spread showers and thunderstorms. Despite an
increase in moisture, the values are not excessive with PWATs
about 1.15" to 1.25". Thus excessive rain and flood potential
won`t be too high. With more clouds and showers, temperatures
should be down a slight amount.

Friday onward, we are back to seeing upper ridging building back
over the area, as the split ridge rejoins the two centers directly
over S New Mexico. This will effectively cut off moisture, with
the flow shifting the moisture in place to our south and west. We
expect to see warmer temperatures and less storms to finish out
the week. Friday will be the transition day back to fewer storms,
with the weekend looking mostly dry, and hot at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions will be the prevailing flight category for all
terminals through the period. Skies developing FEW/SCT CU at
100-120 ft aft 18Z. AFT 18Z ISO/SCT TSRA ovr area MTNS, with iso
MVFR due to reduced vsby in rain shafts. AFT 21Z possible ISO TSRA
ovr lowlands and in VCTY of terminals, but probs too low to
include in TAFs. Winds quite variable across the terminal btwn
05-12kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Low-end fire weather concerns through the week. Temperatures will
continue well above average, with afternoon max temps 5-8 degrees
above normal. Relative humidity will show fair nightly recoveries,
with generally dry afternoons. Some areas will see minRH drop into
the teens, but nothing excessively dry. With some semblance of
high pressure over the region, winds will be generally weak to
moderate, with the ever-present chances for gusty and erratic
outflow winds due to storms.

Storm chances will be on the increase; especially after today, as
the upper ridge shifts back east, and allows the deeper moisture
over AZ to move back over. Upslope flow and surface heating will
allow for scattered mountain storms and isolated lowland storms
today. We expect more storms and wider coverage of rain and storms
Tuesday through Thursday, as the channel of deeper moisture
settles back over the area.

Late week, likely Friday, we see high pressure aloft, building
back over the area. Models suggest we cut off moisture from moving
in, and move out any moisture in place to our south. This will
mean warmer and drier conditions, with fewer storms for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 103  77 101  77 /  10  30  20  40
Sierra Blanca            95  69  94  68 /  10  20  30  40
Las Cruces              101  71  99  71 /  10  30  30  40
Alamogordo               98  70  98  68 /  10  20  20  30
Cloudcroft               75  54  73  53 /  40  20  50  30
Truth or Consequences    98  71  95  70 /  10  20  40  30
Silver City              90  62  87  62 /  50  40  80  30
Deming                   99  70  96  70 /  10  30  30  40
Lordsburg                96  67  93  68 /  50  50  70  40
West El Paso Metro      101  74  98  74 /  10  30  20  40
Dell City               101  71  99  70 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Hancock            101  72 100  72 /  10  20  20  40
Loma Linda               94  68  92  68 /  10  20  30  40
Fabens                  101  72  98  73 /  10  30  20  40
Santa Teresa             99  71  97  72 /  10  40  30  50
White Sands HQ          100  73  98  73 /  10  30  30  40
Jornada Range           100  70  97  70 /  10  30  30  40
Hatch                   102  70  99  70 /  10  30  40  40
Columbus                 99  72  96  72 /  10  30  40  40
Orogrande                98  70  96  70 /  10  20  20  40
Mayhill                  87  57  86  56 /  30  10  50  30
Mescalero                87  58  85  56 /  40  20  50  40
Timberon                 85  55  84  55 /  30  20  40  30
Winston                  90  58  86  56 /  40  30  70  30
Hillsboro                96  67  93  65 /  20  30  60  40
Spaceport                99  67  96  67 /  10  30  40  30
Lake Roberts             89  57  87  57 /  60  40  90  30
Hurley                   93  63  91  63 /  40  30  70  30
Cliff                   100  64  96  64 /  50  30  70  30
Mule Creek               92  64  89  64 /  50  40  70  30
Faywood                  94  66  91  65 /  30  30  60  40
Animas                   96  67  93  67 /  60  60  70  50
Hachita                  96  67  93  67 /  30  40  60  40
Antelope Wells           95  65  91  65 /  50  50  70  40
Cloverdale               89  62  86  63 /  70  60  80  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen