015
FXUS64 KEPZ 131138
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
538 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

High pressure aloft is retreating back to our east, and this will
allow the deeper plume of monsoon moisture to move back over the
Borderland today. We expect an increase in the amount of rain
showers and thunderstorms today as we move into the afternoon and
evening hours. Despite the added clouds and rain potential, we
will continue quite warm, with afternoon temperatures above
normal, and near 100 degrees across the lowlands. We will keep
fair chances for storms again Wednesday, before seeing high
pressure build back over later in the week. This will trend our
temperatures warmer and our conditions drier going into next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Models are in good agreement in contracting the elongated E-W
upper ridge back to the east of our region, as a western U.S.
upper trough moves east into the Rockies this afternoon. This will
create a weakness in the upper ridge directly over our area. The
deeper monsoon moisture channel now over AZ will continue will
continue to shift east and refocus over S NM and Far West Texas
today. The weakness in the upper ridge over our area will allow
for better upper-level instability. Thus we do expect an increase
in shower and storm coverage over the region today; with pretty
uniform coverage from east to west, across our CWA. Temperature
wise, the added moisture should result in more/earlier clouds and
a slight drop in afternoon max temperatures. Still, we stand a
chance at another 100 degree day across the lowest elevations of
the lowlands this afternoon.

For tomorrow, we see today`s minor upper trough bump east over
the SE corner of NM, with building high pressure nudging in from
the west coast, across the N Baja. This should skew our best
moisture over our eastern areas, with or western areas starting to
see some drying. Still we will have plenty of moisture, for
scattered rain and storms from the Rio Grande eastward, and likely
more limited, isolated storms west of the Rio Grande.
Temperatures should be pretty static, as the main pattern is
similar.

For Thursday, the larger scale models agree that a progressive
pattern will bump the trough out of the region, as the upper ridge
to our west centers over S AZ and NM. The flow pattern will
interrupt the influx of monsoon moisture, with N flow aloft. This
should mean the bulk of our moisture gets shoved S and W of our
region, as drier continental air moves in from the north. We
expect to see a large drop in showers and storms, along with a
bump upward in temperatures for Thursday through much of next
week. Daily highs for the lowlands will be in the 100 to 105
range. We will be considering the need for heat advisories for the
El Paso area in the coming forecast packages.

For the weekend and into next week, the upper ridge looks to
strengthen and park over our area. This will mean a stretch of hot
and dry conditions, with very limited storm activity and well
above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions for all the terminals through at least 18Z...as we
see generally variable light winds AOB 10-12kts and skies
FEW/SCT120 w/CIGS west of the Continential Divide. AFT 18Z ISO/SCT
TSRA ovr area mtns, with ISO MVFR due to lower CIGS and VSBY in
VCTY of storms due to rain. AFT 21-22Z ISO/SCT TSRA developing
over the lowlands, and possibly in VCTY of terminals. Expect
increasing clouds to BKN/tempo OVC near storms with CIGS lowering
to 060-080 near storms. Some outflow winds will mean VRB 25G40kts
could impact terminals. TEMPO and brief MVFR conditions in VCTY or
over terminals with any storms aft 22Z through at least 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Fire weather concerns remain generally low, but will trend upward
a bit for the weekend and beyond as we transition to a warmer and
drier pattern. But first we have an actual increase in moisture
today as the upper ridge shifts east and a minor west coast trough
moves in from the west. This will shift the deeper moisture over
AZ back over our region this afternoon. This should result in more
clouds, and and increase in showers and thunderstorms across all
of our fire zones. Temperatures will still be above normal, and RH
will remain well above critical levels. Winds will continue mostly
light to moderate, with the exception of some erratic and gusty
storm outflow winds.

Starting Wednesday we will begin to trend drier as the upper
trough shifts east and a new high pressure ridge begins to move
over from the west. This pattern will begin to shift moisture east
for Wednesday, with our western zones beginning to dry. Thursday
through the weekend, we will see the monsoonal moisture shoved out
of the region to our south, as N flow brings in drier continental
air. We will see temperatures rise, minRH drop well into the
teens, and a lack of showers and storms (at least quite isolated).
Fire weather concerns will trend toward elevated, but we won`t
have the winds necessary for large growth of any new fire starts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 101  77 100  78 /  20  40  10  10
Sierra Blanca            93  68  92  69 /  30  50  40  20
Las Cruces              100  71  98  72 /  30  50  10  10
Alamogordo               98  68  96  71 /  30  40  10  10
Cloudcroft               74  52  72  55 /  70  40  50  10
Truth or Consequences    96  69  94  71 /  40  40  10  10
Silver City              88  62  88  63 /  80  40  20  10
Deming                   98  69  96  70 /  40  50  10  10
Lordsburg                94  67  94  69 /  60  40  10  10
West El Paso Metro       99  74  97  76 /  20  50  10  10
Dell City               100  70  98  70 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Hancock            101  72  98  73 /  30  50  30  20
Loma Linda               93  67  90  69 /  30  50  20  10
Fabens                   99  72  98  74 /  20  40  10  10
Santa Teresa             98  72  95  73 /  30  50  10  10
White Sands HQ           98  73  96  75 /  30  50  20  10
Jornada Range            98  69  95  71 /  40  50  10  10
Hatch                    99  68  98  70 /  40  50  10  10
Columbus                 97  71  95  74 /  40  50  10  10
Orogrande                97  69  95  71 /  30  40  20  10
Mayhill                  86  57  83  58 /  60  40  50  10
Mescalero                86  56  85  58 /  70  40  50  10
Timberon                 85  55  82  57 /  50  40  40  10
Winston                  85  57  86  59 /  80  40  20  10
Hillsboro                94  64  92  67 /  60  50  20  10
Spaceport                97  67  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
Lake Roberts             88  56  88  58 /  80  40  30  10
Hurley                   92  62  91  64 /  60  40  10   0
Cliff                    98  62  98  65 /  70  30  10   0
Mule Creek               90  63  90  65 /  60  30  10   0
Faywood                  92  64  90  66 /  70  50  10  10
Animas                   94  67  93  68 /  70  50  20  10
Hachita                  95  66  93  68 /  60  50  10  10
Antelope Wells           93  65  90  66 /  70  50  20  10
Cloverdale               88  63  87  64 /  80  50  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird