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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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472 FXUS64 KEPZ 142018 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 218 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Markedly drier air across the Borderland will limit thunderstorm potential starting tomorrow and lasting through the forecast period. A warming trend will take hold Thursday, with all locales seeing a 3 to 5 degree increase in temps compared to Wednesday`s readings. Temperatures will hit their peak on Friday, when lowland areas reach above 100 degrees. A few locales likely to hit Heat Advisory criteria, including the El Paso metro. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure has moseyed into the ArkLaTex region today while a shortwave trough pivots across the Great Basin. This has forced the monsoonal moisture plume to advance to the east over eastern NM and far west TX, where isolated showers and storms are ongoing. Meanwhile, another upper high is pushing its way inland to the coast of SoCal and will work to be the focus on the impacts to sensible weather throughout the forecast period. This high pressure will nose its way into the Desert Southwest tomorrow, effectively working to shut off access to the moisture snaking up the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts. This will all but squash any convective dreams for the afternoon, with the only hopes for rogue storms staying localized to eastern high terrain. As the high reaches its eastern periphery into western NM, pressure heights will rise dramatically. This will cause sfc temps to also warm considerably, with most locales seeing an increase of 3F to 7F compared to the previous day`s readings. The 596dam high continues its saunter eastward into Friday, positioning its center over the NM/AZ border. This will set the stage for the hottest day of the week, with many lowland areas seeing daytime highs near Heat Advisory criteria of 105F. The stubborn high will wobble northward into NM over the weekend, strengthening to an oppressive 598dam by Saturday afternoon. Thankfully, its center being far to our north, a few degrees of relief will be on tap for the Borderland over the weekend. Temperatures will still remain hot, however, with near and slightly above 100F being common. The high`s position will open up access to the monsoon plume along its western periphery but any convective aspirations will have to overcome very warm H5 temps and the high`s strong subsidence. Any storms that do materialize will likely remain weak and extremely localized to the far western portion of the CWA. The high takes a short detour to the TX Panhandle Sunday night but quickly retrogrades back into NM by Monday afternoon. It`s at this point that the high reaches its apex, climbing to 600dam by late Tuesday morning. With its center near Gallup, the Borderland will miss out on the worst of the heat the high has to offer, but will still be party to very hot daytime temps. Heat Advisory criteria will be on the horizon at the very least with this current solution. Should the high wander further south, much warmer temperatures could be in our future. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. Isold to widely sct shwrs/tstms will favor the high terrain of the ern portion of the fcst area in the aftn. Low probability that activity will get in the vicinity of any terminal sites, but any direct hits could result in brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. Winds will remain light and vrb with the exception of outflow winds generated by near and distant tstms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected during the forecast period, though elevated conditions will exist due to increasing dryness. A downtick in convection is expected Thursday, with isolated storms favoring the Sacramento and Hueco Mountains in the afternoon. Relative humidity values will sit in the high teens to 20 percent range through tomorrow before lowland values plummet below 15 percent, with dryness increasing in coverage through next week. Weak flow aloft will persist thanks to upper level high pressure, and will allow for surface winds to remain light and generally influenced by terrain for their direction. Vent rates will sit around fair to good tomorrow, then improve to good to excellent towards the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 103 78 105 / 10 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 71 95 70 96 / 30 30 10 10 Las Cruces 71 101 72 102 / 10 0 10 0 Alamogordo 71 99 73 99 / 10 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 58 75 59 76 / 10 30 0 30 Truth or Consequences 72 98 72 100 / 10 0 0 10 Silver City 65 92 68 93 / 10 10 0 20 Deming 70 100 71 101 / 10 0 10 0 Lordsburg 70 98 71 100 / 10 0 10 10 West El Paso Metro 75 100 77 101 / 10 0 10 0 Dell City 71 101 73 101 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 101 74 102 / 20 10 10 10 Loma Linda 70 93 71 95 / 20 20 10 10 Fabens 74 100 75 101 / 20 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 73 99 74 100 / 10 0 10 10 White Sands HQ 75 99 75 101 / 10 10 10 10 Jornada Range 71 100 72 101 / 10 0 0 10 Hatch 70 101 72 102 / 10 0 0 10 Columbus 72 100 74 101 / 10 0 10 0 Orogrande 72 98 73 99 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 61 86 61 87 / 10 20 0 20 Mescalero 61 86 61 87 / 10 10 0 30 Timberon 61 84 62 86 / 10 20 0 20 Winston 62 90 64 91 / 10 0 0 20 Hillsboro 68 96 70 97 / 10 0 0 10 Spaceport 70 99 71 100 / 10 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 61 90 62 92 / 10 10 0 20 Hurley 66 95 68 96 / 10 0 0 10 Cliff 67 99 68 101 / 10 0 0 20 Mule Creek 67 94 69 96 / 10 0 0 20 Faywood 68 94 69 96 / 10 0 0 10 Animas 69 97 70 100 / 10 0 10 10 Hachita 69 98 70 99 / 10 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 68 96 69 98 / 10 0 10 10 Cloverdale 65 91 66 93 / 20 10 10 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter