854
FXUS64 KEPZ 201744
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1144 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Active weather will continue across the Borderland with increased
threats of heavy rain and flash flooding through the weekend and
into early next week. Widespread showers and storms will occur
each day producing efficient rainfall rates, especially over the
mountains. The wet pattern will lead to afternoon high
temperatures in the low 90s on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

No major changes from previous forecast packages with an active
weather pattern setting up across the region for the weekend and
into early next week. Remaining overnight showers/storms will
continue decaying through the early morning hours with scattered
to broken clouds left in it`s wake by sunrise.

The focus for today (Saturday) will be the threat for widespread
shower and thunderstorms that will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, leading to flash flooding. Satellite and 500mb RAP
analysis shows a wave of energy across central NM. By this
afternoon, this feature will be over the forecast area. With
abundant moisture in place throughout the column, PW values of
1.1-1.5 inches and DP temps in the upper 50s and low 60s. This
upper level feature overlaying rich monsoonal moisture, will set
the stage for efficient rain makers that will result in areas of flash
flooding. Confidence is high in the timing, with convection
beginning around 12-1PM over the mountains with the desert
lowlands between 3-6PM. A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect this
afternoon for the Sacramento Mtns and Gila Wilderness. Recent burn
scars remain highly sensitive to even modest amounts of rain that
could lead to flash flooding and debris flows, especially in and
around Ruidoso.

For Sunday and Monday, these two days seem to be the wildcard.
It`s all dependent on how much cloudcover remains locked in over
the area. As of now, the threat for heavy rain and the potential
for flash flooding shifts to the west towards the AZ border on
Sunday. If the sun manages to come out and adds instability to the
moisture thats in place, scattered to widespread showers and
storms will be possible. Confidence in scattered to widespread
showers and storms on both Sunday and Monday is low to medium.
With the potential for added cloudcover on both days, forecast
high temperatures for El Paso drop to the low 90s.

For Tuesday and onward, conditions will quiet down somewhat from
this weekend. The main corridor of moisture will shift south and
east through the week as high pressure gradually build in from the
west. This will result in daily chances of isolated lowland and
scattered mountain showers/storms. Impulses of energy will dive
south along the high pressure`s eastern periphery with recycled
monsoonal moisture to work with, resulting in rain chances each
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions will continue through mid afternoon with skies FEW
to SCT at 10-15 kft and SCT 20 kft at KELP. KTCS, KDMN, and KLRU.
Begining at 18Z, SCT CU development at 10-15 kft with TSRA over
the Sacramento and Gila Mtns. By mid to late afternoon, scattered
to widespread TSRA over the desert lowlands. Medium to high
confidence in direct impacts to TAF sites between 21-03Z this
evening. Storms in and around TAF sites will be capable of
producing gusts to 40 knots, brief reductions to VIS due to rain
or dust, and CIGs at FL050-060. PROB30 lines remain in TAFs for
all sites. Skies will generally be BKN to OVC at 8-15 kft during
the late evening and overnight with lingering mostly light showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Fire weather conditions will be LOW through the weekend and into
next week. Min RH values will be above critical thresholds through
the period with excellent overnight recoveries. Winds will be
light and predominately diurnal/terrain driven. Thunderstorms and
heavy rain will be the name of the game over the next several
days. Mountain fire weather zones will see the highest rain
amounts with flooding possible along creeks and streams. Recent
burn scars, especially the Salt and South Fork remain very
sensitive, even with moderate rainfall amounts. Flash flooding and
debris flows will occur if storms form over the scars. Any
thunderstorm that develops will pose the threat of gusty/erratic
winds and lightning. Recent moisture/wetting rains over the
moisture continue to decrease the threat for new starts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 100  75  94  73 /  40  70  60  70
Sierra Blanca            91  69  86  65 /  30  50  70  70
Las Cruces               99  71  93  69 /  60  80  70  80
Alamogordo               95  67  88  63 /  60  80  80  80
Cloudcroft               71  49  64  47 /  90  80 100  80
Truth or Consequences    95  68  88  66 /  80  80  90  80
Silver City              89  63  83  62 /  90  70 100  90
Deming                   99  70  92  68 /  70  80  70  90
Lordsburg                98  70  92  68 /  90  70  90  90
West El Paso Metro       98  74  92  72 /  40  70  60  80
Dell City                95  71  88  67 /  30  50  70  70
Fort Hancock             99  73  95  70 /  30  40  70  70
Loma Linda               89  68  83  64 /  40  60  80  80
Fabens                   99  75  93  71 /  30  60  60  70
Santa Teresa             97  72  90  70 /  50  80  70  80
White Sands HQ           97  72  89  69 /  60  90  80  80
Jornada Range            97  69  88  67 /  60  90  80  80
Hatch                    99  70  91  68 /  70  90  80  90
Columbus                 99  72  93  71 /  60  80  60  90
Orogrande                94  69  87  65 /  50  80  80  80
Mayhill                  81  54  72  52 /  90  80 100  80
Mescalero                82  54  74  52 /  90  80 100  80
Timberon                 79  53  73  49 /  90  70  90  80
Winston                  86  57  80  56 / 100  80 100  90
Hillsboro                93  64  85  63 /  90  80  90  90
Spaceport                96  66  87  65 /  70  90  90  80
Lake Roberts             89  59  83  57 / 100  70 100  90
Hurley                   92  64  87  63 / 100  70  90  80
Cliff                    99  64  93  63 / 100  70 100  90
Mule Creek               93  65  88  65 / 100  70 100  90
Faywood                  92  65  85  64 /  80  70  90  90
Animas                   98  70  93  69 /  90  80  90  90
Hachita                  97  69  92  68 /  80  80  80  90
Antelope Wells           96  69  92  68 /  80  90  80  90
Cloverdale               91  66  87  65 /  80  90  90  90

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ401-403-408-414>416-425-
     426.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen