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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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748 FXUS64 KEPZ 171138 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 538 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 258 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A gradual ramp up in thunderstorm activity expected through the work week with the most active time frame being over the weekend. Areawide rain chances expected with flooding, hail, and gusty outflow winds possible with thunderstorms. Continued rain chances persist into early next week with the same hazards, but somewhat drier conditions expected. Another hot day can be expected today with the lowlands seeing high temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s, but with added moisture Thursday and onward the Borderland should generally stay below triple digit numbers. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Upper level high pressure remains situated over the area again today keeping much of the area dry today. CAMs are suggesting some t-storm activity in the area mountains and in the NM Bootheel area in the mid-afternoon hours but not much else forms after that. A boundary will push in from the north and east late tonight into early tomorrow morning filtering in better moisture over the area for Thursday afternoon. Better shower and thunderstorm activity will exist along this boundary late tonight bringing rain chances to the northern portion of the CWA. T-storm activity starts to ramp up starting Thursday with the increase in moisture. High pressure begins to shift northwestward and away from the area Thursday and Friday, but similar conditions can be expected on these days. Above average moisture will be seen on both days with PW values around the 90% above average for this time of year (1.1-1.3"). Storm motions will be fairly slow at 5-10MPH. Both of these ingredients will favor flooding from thunderstorms. Gusty outflow winds still generally possible with speeds around 30-40MPH and small hail also possible both days. High pressure will migrate westward over the weekend with the high centered right over NV during this time. This will allow good northerly flow over the area which has been notorious in this area for bringing a bit better shear to the area, adding organization to thunderstorms. With that being said, the weekend looks active with thunderstorm chances possible everywhere Saturday and Sunday afternoons and evenings. Moisture will continue to be well above average with slow storm motions allowing flooding to be the primary hazard with storms. Gusty outflow winds will continue to be possible. With the added shear, small to moderate sized hail will certainly be possible. Heading into early next week, continued northerly flow heading into Monday and Tuesday with rain chances staying areawide. Moisture content during this time will be right around average. Flooding will continue to be a threat but storms will not be as water loaded as what we`ll see over the weekend. However, the same hazards of hail and gusty outflow winds will continue. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions expected to continue through at least 03Z. This morning will feature light east to southeast winds and will transition to mild breezes (10G20KT) in the afternoon. A boundary will push in from the north and east tonight bringing breezy winds as it pushes through to TAF sites. KTCS will see breezy north winds as soon as 03Z with KELP being the last site to see breezy north to northeast winds around 08Z. As the boundary pushes through, KTCS could see a thunderstorm or shower. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 258 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Generally little to no fire concerns over the week ahead. Each day will feature light east to southeast breezes each afternoon with light and variable winds overnight. Min RHs this afternoon will be the lowest of the week with values 12-20% in the lowlands and 20-30% in the mountains. A few thunderstorms possible by mid afternoon in the mountains today but better coverage for showers and thunderstorms exists later this evening due to a boundary pushing in from the north and east. Thunderstorm chances will favor Sierra, Otero and northern Grant counties during the evening and overnight hours. This could pose a threat over the recent burn scars as night time flooding is possible. A gradual increase in thunderstorm chances exists towards the end of the work week with a bit better coverage than what we`ll see today. Flooding, small hail and gusty outflow winds will be possible with storms Thursday and Friday. This weekend appears to be the most active with Saturday and Sunday featuring moisture rich thunderstorms that will lead to flooding, hail, and gusty outflow winds. The biggest hazard will be flooding. Somewhat drier air entrains into the area Monday and Tuesday but the area will continue generally areawide thunderstorm chances. Thursday afternoon and each afternoon onward will bring flooding chances over the recent burn scars. Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent today becoming poor to good Thursday and onward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 102 78 99 77 / 10 10 10 30 Sierra Blanca 94 67 91 67 / 10 10 30 30 Las Cruces 101 73 98 72 / 10 20 10 50 Alamogordo 99 68 93 68 / 10 30 30 30 Cloudcroft 76 50 70 51 / 30 30 60 40 Truth or Consequences 99 71 94 69 / 10 40 30 50 Silver City 93 66 90 65 / 40 40 60 60 Deming 101 72 98 71 / 10 20 10 60 Lordsburg 100 73 98 72 / 20 30 30 60 West El Paso Metro 99 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 40 Dell City 99 70 94 69 / 10 0 30 20 Fort Hancock 101 72 99 72 / 20 10 20 30 Loma Linda 93 68 89 68 / 10 10 30 30 Fabens 100 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 20 Santa Teresa 98 73 96 74 / 10 10 10 40 White Sands HQ 99 74 95 74 / 10 20 30 50 Jornada Range 99 70 95 70 / 10 30 30 50 Hatch 101 71 98 70 / 10 30 20 60 Columbus 99 74 98 74 / 10 20 10 50 Orogrande 97 70 93 69 / 10 20 30 40 Mayhill 86 55 79 55 / 30 30 60 30 Mescalero 87 56 81 56 / 30 30 70 40 Timberon 85 55 79 54 / 20 30 50 30 Winston 91 59 86 58 / 30 40 60 60 Hillsboro 96 67 93 67 / 20 40 50 70 Spaceport 99 68 94 67 / 10 30 30 50 Lake Roberts 93 62 89 60 / 50 40 70 60 Hurley 96 66 93 64 / 30 40 50 60 Cliff 103 66 100 65 / 50 40 60 60 Mule Creek 96 68 93 67 / 50 40 60 60 Faywood 95 68 92 67 / 20 40 40 60 Animas 100 71 99 72 / 30 30 20 60 Hachita 99 70 98 70 / 10 20 10 50 Antelope Wells 96 69 97 69 / 30 30 20 50 Cloverdale 92 67 93 68 / 40 40 20 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher