118
FXUS64 KEPZ 181738
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1138 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Continued thunderstorm chances each day through mid week next
week. Flash flooding will be possible each afternoon and evening
from heavy rainfall. The Sacramento Mountains will be targeted
today for flash flooding. This weekend looks particularly active
with the continued flash flooding threat being the primary hazard,
as well as hail and gusty outflow winds. A more traditional
monsoonal pattern begins early next work week with all hazards
mentioned prior continuing to be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Rain and thunderstorm chances persist each afternoon and evening
through mid week next week. Moisture will continue to be on the
increase today allowing for thunderstorms to be fairly water
loaded. Slow storm motions and backbuilding of storms will be seen
this afternoon aiding in the flooding threat, especially for the
Sacramento Mtns. Guidance has been showing this area as the hot
spot for heavy rains leading to flash flooding. Guidance is
suggesting a couple inches of rain in a 6 hour time frame, but
higher end HREF model probabilities point towards 6 hour
accumulations of 3-3.5 inches. This would lead to definite flash
flooding for the mountains. Storms in the late afternoon and early
evening will spread to the desert lowlands. Activity appears to
persist into the late evening and perhaps the overnight hours.
Again, these storms will feature heavy rain, gusty outflow winds
and possibly even small hail with stronger storms. Friday appears
similar to what we`ll see today. Rain accumulations don`t appear
as significant in the Sacramento Mtns as what we`ll see today, but
could see totals upwards of an inch to inch and a half with
higher end totals being 2-2.5 inches. Antecedent conditions from
heavy rains and flooding that`s expected today will keep this area
prone to flooding even with lesser totals.

High pressure skirts westward and centers over NV by Saturday
bringing northerly flow over the Borderland. The highest moisture
content of the week is expected Saturday and Sunday which will
allow for very heavy rainfall from thunderstorms. In addition,
winds continue to be light aiding in the continued flash flooding
threat. Rain chances will be areawide both days so any location
has the potential to see flooding. While flooding is the main
threat, gusty outflow winds and small to modest sized hail is
possible with stronger storms. By late Sunday, an upper trough
will drift south over the Great Plains which will keep rain
chances during the overnight hours. Monday through Wednesday,
moisture content decreases to near normal values but a monsoonal
pattern will continue with flash flooding possible as well as
gusty outflow winds and hail.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Thunderstorms will develop in the mountains this afternoon after
18z, becoming more prevalent across the lowlands after 21Z. All
taf sites may be impacted later this afternoon and evening, with
KDMN having the greater chance. There will be brief periods of
MVFR conditions due to reduced visibility in showers. Small hail,
gusty outflow winds are also possible with blowing dust from
outflows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Low fire weather concerns over the week ahead. Min RH values
remain above critical thresholds with desert lowland values being
20-30 percent and the area mountains being 40-70 percent.
Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and hail
possible today and tomorrow. Flash flooding is likely today for
the Sacramento Mtns and possibly into tomorrow as well. This
weekend looks active as areawide thunderstorms are expected with
flash flooding being the primary hazard. Otherwise, light east to
southeast winds can be expected each day with light and variable
winds overnight. High temperatures will generally be below average
and ventilation rates will be poor to good today and through the
next seven days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  76  98  76 /  50  50  40  50
Sierra Blanca            89  67  89  68 /  60  50  40  30
Las Cruces               96  71  96  71 /  50  50  40  60
Alamogordo               92  67  93  68 /  60  50  50  50
Cloudcroft               68  50  70  51 /  90  50  80  60
Truth or Consequences    93  69  93  69 /  60  60  70  60
Silver City              89  63  88  64 /  80  70  90  80
Deming                   96  71  96  70 /  40  40  50  70
Lordsburg                98  71  96  71 /  50  50  80  80
West El Paso Metro       96  75  96  76 /  50  50  40  50
Dell City                93  70  94  70 /  50  30  40  20
Fort Hancock             97  72  98  73 /  50  50  40  30
Loma Linda               88  68  88  69 /  50  50  50  40
Fabens                   96  74  97  74 /  50  40  30  30
Santa Teresa             94  72  94  73 /  50  40  40  60
White Sands HQ           94  71  94  74 /  50  50  60  60
Jornada Range            94  69  94  70 /  50  50  50  60
Hatch                    97  70  97  70 /  60  60  60  70
Columbus                 96  72  96  73 /  30  30  40  70
Orogrande                91  69  92  70 /  50  40  50  50
Mayhill                  78  55  80  55 /  90  60  80  50
Mescalero                80  55  82  56 /  80  50  80  60
Timberon                 76  53  77  55 /  70  40  70  50
Winston                  86  58  86  58 /  90  80  90  70
Hillsboro                91  66  92  66 /  80  80  80  80
Spaceport                94  66  94  68 /  50  50  60  60
Lake Roberts             88  60  88  60 /  90  70  90  80
Hurley                   91  65  91  64 /  70  70  80  70
Cliff                    99  66  98  65 /  80  70  90  70
Mule Creek               93  66  92  68 /  80  70  90  80
Faywood                  91  66  90  66 /  80  70  80  80
Animas                   99  71  97  72 /  40  60  70  80
Hachita                  96  69  96  70 /  30  50  60  70
Antelope Wells           96  69  96  70 /  30  30  70  80
Cloverdale               92  67  90  68 /  40  30  70  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through Friday evening for NMZ414>416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen