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Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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042 FXUS64 KEPZ 161647 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1047 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Upper high over New Mexico will keep much of the area in drier air again today. There will still be a chance of thunderstorms, mainly west of the Continental Divide. The upper high begins moving westward after Tuesday, near the Four Corners Wednesday. This allow a few thunderstorms to move back in over much of the area. Then Thursday into the weekend, the moisture rapidly returns and by the weekend we can expect widespread thunderstorms and possibility of flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Today and Wednesday...WV imagery shows upper high still mainly over New Mexico. Layered moisture surrounding most of the high circulation except the eastern quadrant, where the dry slot is still in place over most of the CWA. Doesn`t look like much change for today. NSSL Synthetic satellite imagery shows layered moisture staying mostly where it is now; hence I think chances of thunderstorms are best west of the Cont Divide. I did trim back NBM POPs somewhat for this afternoon to reflect that. Big changes are coming as the upper high begins slowly drifting west. For Wednesday the upper high is over the Four Corners. This does allow some moisture aloft to begin moving in, while still offering some capping at mid-levels. POPs should begin increasing some area wide. Thursday into the weekend...upper high moves over Arizona Thursday and the upper over Nevada for the weekend. This will give us a stronger northerly flow aloft. Expect thunderstorms into the scattered to numerous coverage for all areas through this period. Typically the storms begin in the mountains early afternoon and spread southward over the lowlands, often with strong outflow. GFS PWs increase to 1.0 to 1.3 inches during this period, possibly even higher on Saturday before decreasing some on Sunday. The main threat throughout this period will be flooding. Severe winds also a large threat with large hail likely a secondary threat. Monday and Tuesday...upper high slides down closer to southern California, keeping northerly flow over the CWA. PWs lower some, but for the most part these days likely a continuation from the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT200-250 through 06Z then skies becoming SKC-FEW150. Isolated to scattered 3-5SM -TSRA BKN060-080 expected to develop between 19Z-21Z over the Gila region and then over the plains west of the Divide. Wind gusts over 40KTS will be the main threat with blowing dust possible around the Lordsburg Playa. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 We are in a stretch of dry weather, likely to continue most zones again today. However we begin transitioning Wednesday and especially toward the weekend, to a much wetter overall pattern. Thunderstorm coverage should increase dramatically by Thursday and Friday and flooding will become a major threat all areas. Strong winds also a real threat. Min RHs: Lowlands 12-18% today increasing to 20-30% Wednesday into the weekend. Mountains 15-25% today increasing to 35-50% Wednesday into the weekend. Vent rates very good-excellent today and Wednesday, becoming fair-good by Friday into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 103 78 102 77 / 10 0 30 30 Sierra Blanca 94 72 95 66 / 10 10 20 30 Las Cruces 103 72 101 72 / 10 10 40 50 Alamogordo 100 70 98 67 / 10 0 40 50 Cloudcroft 83 51 75 51 / 10 10 50 50 Truth or Consequences 101 73 99 69 / 10 10 50 70 Silver City 93 66 95 62 / 30 30 60 70 Deming 102 72 101 71 / 20 10 50 60 Lordsburg 99 70 101 71 / 40 40 50 60 West El Paso Metro 101 76 101 76 / 10 0 30 30 Dell City 100 70 100 70 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Hancock 101 71 102 71 / 10 0 30 30 Loma Linda 94 69 94 68 / 0 0 30 30 Fabens 101 75 102 74 / 0 0 30 30 Santa Teresa 100 70 100 72 / 10 10 30 30 White Sands HQ 100 72 100 70 / 10 10 40 50 Jornada Range 101 69 100 67 / 10 0 50 60 Hatch 103 72 102 70 / 10 10 50 60 Columbus 101 72 101 74 / 10 10 30 30 Orogrande 98 74 97 69 / 10 0 30 40 Mayhill 92 56 87 55 / 10 10 40 50 Mescalero 92 56 87 55 / 10 10 60 50 Timberon 89 53 85 54 / 10 10 40 40 Winston 94 60 92 57 / 30 20 70 70 Hillsboro 98 70 97 65 / 20 20 60 80 Spaceport 101 69 100 66 / 10 10 50 60 Lake Roberts 95 55 93 59 / 40 30 70 70 Hurley 97 66 97 64 / 30 30 60 70 Cliff 100 63 100 64 / 30 40 70 70 Mule Creek 96 59 97 61 / 40 40 70 70 Faywood 97 69 96 66 / 30 20 60 70 Animas 99 70 101 70 / 40 40 30 50 Hachita 99 72 101 70 / 40 20 30 30 Antelope Wells 96 67 98 68 / 40 30 30 30 Cloverdale 90 65 93 66 / 40 50 50 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz