Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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669 FXUS64 KEPZ 120827 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 227 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 224 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 It will be warmer and drier through Saturday with thunderstorm chances largely limited to the Gila Region. Thunderstorm chances will spread back across the area on Sunday, lasting through next week. Temperatures will be near or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The UL high has centered itself over the Colorado River Valley,just north of Las Vegas, NV, drawing relatively dry air into NM and West TX. Dewpoints are in the M40s while SPC Mesoanalysis shows PW values around 0.7". This drier air will effectively shut-off storm chances for much of the area through Saturday. The only area that may still see storms is the Gila region with areas near the AZ border possibly seeing storms as well on Saturday. Temperatures will warm too with the drier air, so I elected to go with the NBM 75th percentile for highs through Saturday since that tends to do well in these drier regimes. By Sunday, the high is expected to migrate across the Four Corners and into CO. This location will allow moisture to return for the Borderland along with rain and storm chances. The GFS is more aggressive with moisture recovery than the Euro. The NBM gradients precip chances with the highest west and lowest east. Monday continues the pattern of moisture influx, and the pattern pretty much remains steady-state for the remainder of the forecast period. The high will meander across CO and UT while a closed low/inverted trough pinches off the deeper trough covering the Eastern and Central CONUS. Moisture flow alone looks sufficient to bring back areawide showers and thunderstorms, especially for the mountains, but the wild card will be what that inverted trough/closed low does. Models are struggling to determine its path, which could both enhance or suppress convection depending on its location. For now, however, it looks to at minimum not affect us, but at most, increase shower and thunderstorm coverage. Models are notoriously poor at handling cut-off lows, and so, the forecast is likely to vary some. Temperatures will continue to run near or above normal although if we get enhanced storm coverage, highs would instead be likely to run below normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period with SKC-FEW100. Surface winds east/southeast 8-12 knots. Developing after 18Z, mainly over the Gila/Black Range...isolated -TSRA BKN050CB. A few of these storms could produce small hail and wind gusts of 30-40 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Drier air has pushed into the area, and that will remain the case through Saturday. For Friday, min RH values will drop into the mid-teens in the lowlands and the lower to middle 20s in the mountains. Storm chances will largely be limited to portions of the Gila. Winds are not expected to be particularly strong, which will limit fire concerns otherwise. Speeds will top out around 10 MPH. Saturday will be similar to Friday. Venting for both days will be very good to excellent. Moisture begins to return on Sunday. The increase in moisture will also reintroduce to storm chances to the entire area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 93 63 93 66 / 0 0 10 20 Las Cruces 98 70 100 71 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 95 66 97 67 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 73 50 75 50 / 10 0 10 0 Truth or Consequences 96 70 97 70 / 10 10 10 10 Silver City 90 64 92 65 / 30 20 40 30 Deming 98 68 99 69 / 0 0 10 20 Lordsburg 99 71 100 70 / 20 10 20 30 West El Paso Metro 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 96 66 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 99 68 100 71 / 0 0 10 20 Loma Linda 90 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 99 71 100 73 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 96 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 96 68 97 68 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 99 68 100 69 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 98 71 99 72 / 0 0 0 20 Orogrande 95 68 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 85 55 86 55 / 10 0 10 0 Mescalero 84 55 86 55 / 10 0 10 0 Timberon 82 53 84 54 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 88 58 90 58 / 20 20 30 20 Hillsboro 93 66 95 67 / 10 10 20 20 Spaceport 95 65 96 65 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 90 60 91 61 / 40 20 40 30 Hurley 94 63 95 64 / 20 10 20 20 Cliff 100 64 102 65 / 30 30 40 30 Mule Creek 94 66 95 69 / 40 30 50 40 Faywood 93 66 93 66 / 10 10 20 20 Animas 99 68 100 68 / 10 10 10 30 Hachita 97 67 98 67 / 0 10 0 20 Antelope Wells 97 68 97 67 / 10 10 10 30 Cloverdale 93 66 93 65 / 10 20 20 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown