046
AXPZ20 KNHC 171601
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 95W north of 06N to southern
Mexico, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N to 16N between 94W and 101W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 106W from 03N to 16N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N
between 101W and 112W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 125W from 11N to 21N, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to
20N between 123W and 127W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N85W to 09N100W to 09N122W then resumes from 17N116W to a low
pres near 7N125W 1008 mb to 11N134W. The ITCZ begins near 11N134W
and continues beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 04N to 10N E of 88W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 16N between 94W and 101W, and from 05N
to 12N between 101W and 112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A generally weak pressure gradient continues to support gentle to
moderate NW winds along the Baja California Peninsula offshores, the
entrance of the Gulf of California all the way to Jalisco
adjacent waters. Seas across these regions are in the 5-6 ft
range in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere,
except for moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec where seas are 5-6 ft in SW swell. In the Gulf of
California seas are to 3 ft, except in the entrance of the gulf
where seas are to 5 ft due to SW swell. Otherwise, some showers
are ongoing in the Chiapas offshore waters due to the passage of
a tropical wave.

For the forecast, moderate winds will pulse west of the Baja
California peninsula tonight and continue through Fri night, with
fresh to locally strong winds near Cabo San Lucas. Northerly
swell will bring rough seas to Baja California waters north of
Punta Eugenia late in the weekend. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred miles south
of the coast of southern Mexico. Some slow development of this
system is possible early next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10-15 kt. This system has a low chance of
development in the next 48 hours and 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are fresh to strong along with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 11N,
with seas ranging between 5 to 6 ft primary from SW swell. Gentle
to moderate S to SW winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in S to
SW swell are noted over the waters S of 09N, including between
the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Otherwise, heavy showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing across the offshore waters from the
Gulf of Panama to Costa Rica. Gusty winds and rough seas are
likely in this area of convection.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf
of Papagayo will diminish this afternoon. Winds will pulse
moderate to locally fresh tonight before diminishing to light to
gentle by Thu night. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas
will prevail between the coast of Colombia, Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands through most of the week. These winds will also
occur in the offshore waters of Nicaragua to Panama tonight
through Fri. Southerly swell will bring rough seas to the
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters later in the
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Invest EP92 is located near 16.8N 125.5W with a central pressure
of 1008 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to
20N between 123W and 127W. Moderate to fresh NE winds with seas
to 8 ft are occurring within 135 nm NW semicircle of the low.
Moderate winds are elsewhere in the vicinity of the low.

Surface ridging associated with a 1021 mb high centered near
31N133W extends across the subtropical E Pacific waters and
support gentle to moderate NE to E winds along with moderate
seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are elsewhere
south of the monsoon and ITCZ.

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft in mixed N and S long-period
swell will linger around the equator through most of the week,
with swell bringing rough seas to waters S of 04N by the end of
the weekend. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. While a tropical depression could
still form during the next day or so, the window for further
development is closing with stronger upper-level winds and cooler
waters anticipated on Thursday. The system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at about 10 kt across the western part of the
basin. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours
and 7 days.

$$
Ramos