892
AXPZ20 KNHC 172202
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jul 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 97W north of 04N to southern
Mexico, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 06N to 12N between 92W and 101W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 107W from 05N to 16N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N
between 103W and 117W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 125W from 11N to 22N, moving
W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to
20N between 123W and 127W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 08N97W to 09N112W to 07N117W. The ITCZ begins near
12N136W and continues beyond 12N140W. Aside the convection
associated with the tropical waves in the section above, numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 03N to 10N E of 90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A generally weak pressure gradient continues to support gentle to
moderate NW winds along the Baja California Peninsula offshores, the
entrance of the Gulf of California all the way to Jalisco
adjacent waters. Seas across these regions are in the 5-6 ft
range in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere
with 5-6 ft seas in SW swell. In the Gulf of California seas are
to 3 ft, except in the entrance of the gulf where seas are to 5
ft due to SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will continue west of
the Baja California peninsula through Mon, except for locally
fresh NW winds N of Punta Eugenia Sun through Mon. NW swell will
also bring rough seas to 9 ft N of Punta Eugenia, forecast to
subside by Tue morning. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is
likely to form this weekend a few hundred miles south of the
coast of southern Mexico. Some slow development of this system is
possible early next week while it moves westward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a low chance of
development in the next 48 hours and 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are moderate to fresh with 5
to 7 ft seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 11N, with
seas ranging between 5 to 6 ft primary from SW swell. Gentle to
moderate S to SW winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in S to SW
swell are noted over the waters S of 09N, including between the
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Otherwise, heavy showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing across the offshore waters from the
Gulf of Panama to Costa Rica. Gusty winds and rough seas are
likely in this area of convection.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across
the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu. Gentle to moderate southerly
winds and moderate seas will prevail between the coast of
Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri. These
winds are forecast to briefly reach moderate to fresh speeds over
the weekend before diminishing back to gentle to moderate speeds
on Mon. An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico, bringing
moderate E to SE winds to the offshore waters of Guatemala, El
Salvador and Nicaragua. Otherwise, southerly swell will bring
rough seas to the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters
Sun through Mon night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Invest EP92 is located near 16.5N 125.5W with a central pressure
of 1008 mb and continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms confined to the NW quadrant of the low. Moderate
to fresh NE winds with seas to 8 ft are occurring within 135 nm
NW semicircle of the low. Moderate winds are elsewhere in the
vicinity of the low.

Surface ridging associated with a 1022 mb high centered near
32N131W extends across the subtropical E Pacific waters and
support gentle to moderate NE to E winds along with moderate
seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are elsewhere
south of the monsoon and ITCZ.

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft in mixed N and S long-period
swell will linger around the equator through most of the week,
with swell bringing rough seas to waters S of 04N by the end of
the weekend. Otherwise, EP92 still has potential of becoming a
short-lived tropical depression during the next day or so. Further
development is unlikely afterward with stronger upper-level
winds and cooler waters anticipated by late Thursday. The system
is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 kt across the
western part of the basin. This system has a low chance of
development in 48 hours and 7 days.

$$
Ramos