405
AXPZ20 KNHC 180913
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 99W from 05N to 16N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 07N to 13N between 96W and 104W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 109W from 03N to 17N, moving
W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

A tropical wave has its axis along 126W from 09N to 21N, moving
W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N to
20N between 123W and 126W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 09N100W to 08N114W and then from 18N116W to 1008 mb
low pressure near 16N126W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from 07N to 14N between 88W and 104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A generally weak pressure gradient continues to support gentle to
moderate NW winds along the Baja California Peninsula offshores
confirmed by the latest ASCAT data. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are likely occurring south of Cabo San Lucas. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters,
including the Gulf of California. Seas across most of the Mexico
offshore waters are 5 to 6 ft within mostly S to SW swell. In
the Gulf of California seas are to 3 ft, except in the entrance
of the Gulf where seas are to 4 ft due to SW swell.

Scattered thunderstorms are also impacting the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and the outer Oaxaca offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will continue west of
the Baja California peninsula through Mon, with fresh NW winds
developing N of Punta Eugenia from Sat night through Mon. NW
swell will also bring rough seas to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia
later in the weekend and will subside early next week. Winds
will pulse fresh to locally strong across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Sat. Otherwise, an area of low pressure could form by
this weekend a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern
Mexico. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is
possible by the middle of next week while it moves W to WNW at 10
to 15 kt. This system has a low chance of development in the
next 48 hours and 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are moderate with 5 to 6 ft
seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 09N, with seas
ranging between 5 to 6 ft within SW swell. Gentle to moderate S
to SW winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell are
noted over the waters S of 10N, with locally fresh winds off the
southern coast of Colombia and Ecuador.

Numerous strong thunderstorms are occurring in the Colombia and
Gulf of Panama offshore waters, liking leading to gusty winds and
locally rough seas. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted over
the Nicaragua offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds and
moderate seas will prevail across the Central and South America
offshore waters. Winds are forecast to briefly reach fresh speeds
over the weekend and across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands
offshore waters before diminishing back to gentle to moderate
speeds on Mon. An area of low pressure is likely to form this
weekend a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern
Mexico, bringing moderate E to SE winds to the offshore waters of
Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Otherwise, southerly swell
will bring rough seas to the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador
offshore waters Sun through Mon night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Invest EP92 is located near 16N126W with a central pressure of
1008 mb and continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms confined to the NE quadrant of the low. Fresh to
locally strong NE winds with seas to 8 ft are occurring in the
northern semicircle of the low within 200 nm. Moderate winds are
elsewhere in the vicinity of the low.

Surface ridging associated with a 1022 mb high centered near
33N131W extends across the subtropical E Pacific waters. This is
supporting gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. Gentle to
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are elsewhere south of
the monsoon and ITCZ.

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft in S long-period swell will
linger around the equator through most of the week, with this
swell bringing rough seas S of 04N this weekend into early next
week. Otherwise, environmental conditions near EP92 are becoming
less conducive, with stronger upper level winds and cooler
waters, and its window for further development is closing. The
low is forecast to move generally WNW at 10 kt across the
western part of the basin. This system has a low chance of
development in 48 hours and 7 days.

$$
AReinhart