953
AXPZ20 KNHC 190801
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jul 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. nearby convection is described below in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to 09N120W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 10N between 81W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends west of the Baja California
peninsula. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting gentle to
locally moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the discussion
waters. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail over the open waters off Mexico
and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, broad high pressure across the region will
support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
today. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec tonight into Sat associated with a passing tropical
wave. By Sat night into Sun, high pressure will build west of the
area along with a slightly deeper low pressure over the lower
Colorado River. This pattern will support brief fresh to strong
southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California, and fresh
NW winds and building seas off Baja California Norte. Winds and
seas will diminish off Baja California and the Gulf of California
through the early part of next week as weak high pressure builds
over the region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are N of the monsoon trough, with gentle
winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds and
moderate seas are expected across the Central and South America
offshore waters today. Winds will freshen Sat through Sun across
the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters before
diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds on Mon. Otherwise,
southerly swell will bring rough seas to the Galapagos Islands
and Ecuador offshore waters Sun into Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pres, former Invest EP92, is located near 17.5N129W with a
central pressure of 1009 mb. Fresh to locally strong winds, and
seas to 8 ft, are in the vicinity of the low. Gentle to moderate
winds are elsewhere N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds are S of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Aside from
the area of 8 ft seas near the low, seas of 5-7 ft prevail,
locally to 8 ft near the equator.

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft in S long-period swell will
linger around the equator through most of the week, with this
swell bringing rough seas south of 05N this weekend into early
next week. Early next week, SW winds will increase into the
monsoon trough from 05N to 10N between 95W and 110W, leading to
rough seas. Otherwise, the area of low pressure is expected to
dissipate today.

$$
AL