003
AXPZ20 KNHC 282139
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec continue to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of
southern Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is expected over portions of Central America and
southeastern Mexico through the weekend. There is the potential
for significant rainfall across portions of SW Mexico from Jalisco
to Guerrero and western Oaxaca. This system has a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 7
days.

Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. For additional information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 1009 mb low (EP95)
near 13N97W to 11N101W to 13N110W to 09N125W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N125W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection
related to EP95, scattered moderate to strong convection can be
found elsewhere from 08N to 16N between 92W and 120W, and from
06N to 11N W of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details
on Invest EP95. A Gale Warning is in effect with this system.

Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of
Baja California, supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds.
Light and variable winds are seen in the Gulf of California
while gentle winds are noted over the remainder of the Mexican
offshore forecast waters, with the exception of moderate NW
winds in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes. Mainly moderate seas in
SW swell prevail.

For the forecast, marine conditions will deteriorate across the
SE and SW Mexican offshore waters as Invest EP95 develops.
Currently, the forecast calls for gale conditions across the
offshore waters of Guerrero and Michoacan Sun night through Mon
night, and across the offshore waters of Colima and Jalisco Tue
and Tue night. The system is expected to approach Los Cabos and
the entrance to the Gulf of California Wed through Thu.
Otherwise, a strengthening surface ridge N of the area should
induce fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of California by
middle of the next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are noted per scatterometer data across
most of the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough, with the
exception of moderate to fresh NE winds in the Papagayo region.
Gentle to moderate S winds are S of the monsoon trough. Moderate
to rough seas, in southerly swell, are between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, with slight to moderate seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, pulsing winds to strong speeds are expected,
mainly at night, in the Papagayo region through at least Tue.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in
southerly swell are expected. Moderate to rough cross equatorial
S to SW swell will affect the waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands over the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1032 mb high
pressure centered at 36N143W. Under the influence of the ridge
and based on satellite derived wind data, moderate to fresh NE
winds are noted N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 130W, with
gentle to moderate NE winds between 110W and 130W. South of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted.
Moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the region, with little change in winds and seas
through Tue night. By Wed morning, seas generated by strong
winds offshore the State of California will propagate across the
northern forecast waters, building seas to 8 to 9 ft across most
of the area N of 25N between 120W and 133W by Thu morning.

$$
GR