568
AXPZ20 KNHC 122111
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W from 06N northward across
Costa Rica and into the Caribbean Sea, moving westward around 10
kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W from 03N to 15N, just
offshore the border of Guatemala and Mexico, moving westward at 5
to 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon
trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 06N to 20N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 124W from 05N to 16N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 132.5W from 04N to 17N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure near
northern Colombia near 10N76W to across Costa Rica to 10N94W to
12N112W to 11N115W. The ITCZ extends from 11N115W to 10N119W to
12N124W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 10N126W to
09N133W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N135W to
beyond 07.5N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 85W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 90W and 96W,
and from 04N to 12N between 90W and 103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California
through the Baja California Peninsula. Locally fresh S to SE
winds are noted in recent ASCAT scatterometer data in the
northern Gulf as a result of the pressure gradient between this
trough and ridging to the east. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted in
the northern and southern Gulf of California, with seas 2 ft or
less in the central Gulf. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient
prevails over the open waters with mainly light to gentle winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed NW and S swell.

For the forecast, fresh S to SE winds across the northern Gulf
of California will diminish late tonight before fresh winds
redevelop in the northern Gulf early next week. Moderate to
locally fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into
early next week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are expected over the remainder of the waters for the next
several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are in the Gulf of
Papagayo supported by low pressure over northern Colombia.
Moderate to locally fresh E winds extend beyond the Papagayo
region to areas well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala.
Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the
monsoon trough. A long period southern hemisphere swell is
leading to seas of 5 to 7 ft across the regional waters.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night, then will strengthen early
next week. A new S to SW swell will move through the equatorial
waters late in the weekend through the middle of next week,
promoting rough seas south of 05N. Otherwise, moderate to
occasionally fresh S to SW winds will occur south of the monsoon
trough through the middle of next week, with gentle to moderate
winds occurring to the north.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak ridging prevails across the waters north of 20N. Mainly
moderate N to NE trades are noted north of 10N and west of 125W
per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Winds are weaker elsewhere
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to locally fresh S
to SE winds are occurring over the waters south of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed N and SE swell
dominate the open waters, except rough near the Equator west of
105W.

For the forecast, ridging will continue to dominate the waters
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into next week, supporting
moderate to occasionally fresh N to NE winds. Moderate seas in
mixed N and SE swell are expected in this area, with locally
rough seas possible north of 28N as a new N swell moves into the
northern waters through the remainder of the weekend, with
another set across the same area by the middle of next week.
Elsewhere, rough seas will build over the equatorial waters as
new S swell moves through the southern waters, gradually
spreading northward into the early part of the week. Expect
rough seas south of 07N into the middle of next week.

$$
Lewitsky