924
AXPZ20 KNHC 170340
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 92W north of 07N to southern
Mexico, moving W at 15 kt. Deep convection near this wave is
discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 104W from 03N to 16N, moving W
at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon
trough section below.

A tropical wave has its axis along 120W from 07N to 17N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16N
between 118W and 121W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 127W from 08N to 18N, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to
18N between 124W and 128W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 08N100W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 16N126W to
11N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 87W and from 07N to 12N
between 89W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
06N to 15N between 102W and 116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds are likely prevailing off the Baja California
coast and the SW Mexico coast. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
moderate winds are quickly diminishing to light to gentle. Across
the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle winds
are noted. Seas across the Baja California offshore waters are
mostly 5 to 6 ft due to mixed S and SW swell. In the Baja
California Sur offshore waters, seas range 5 to 7 ft within S to
SW swell. Over the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters, seas
are 4 to 6 ft generated by long- period SW swell. In the Gulf of
California, seas are to 3 ft, except in the extreme southern Gulf
of California, where higher seas of 3 to 5 ft exist due to long-
period SW swell.

For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will become
light and variable tonight. Seas in the Gulf will subside to 4
to 6 ft on Wed. Moderate SE winds across the SW Mexican offshore
waters will persist through Wed night. Moderate winds will
develop west of the Baja California peninsula tonight and
continue through most of the week. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred miles south
of the coast of southern Mexico. Some slow development of this
system is possible early next week while it moves W to WNW at 10
to 15 kt. This system has a low chance of development in the next
48 hours and 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are fresh to locally strong
along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere N of 07N, including across most of the Central America
and Colombia offshore waters. Seas range 5 to 6 ft outside of
Papagayo primary from long-period SW swell. Moderate to locally
fresh winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell are
noted over the waters S of 05N, including between the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the Central
American offshore waters and over northern Panama. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore
Colombia, reaching westward to near 82W and from 05N to 08N.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf
of Papagayo will diminish Wed as they become southerly. These
winds become moderate NE to E on Wed night. Moderate southerly
winds and moderate seas will prevail between the coast of
Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through most of the
week. These winds will also occur in the offshore waters of
Nicaragua to Panama tonight through Fri night. Fairly tranquil
conditions are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure covers the area north of about 20N. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally
fresh trade winds from north of the trough to near 25N and west
of about 120W. Fresh winds are noted around a low pressure near
16N126W with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Seas are to 8 ft near
this low. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds are N of 25N and W of
100W. Moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas to 8
ft due to mixed long- period SW and NE swell are present from 10N
to 15N and W of 135W. Long- period SW swell is creating seas 6 to
8 ft north of the equator to 08N and W of 93W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds north of the
trough will increase by the weekend as the pressure gradient
increases. Seas to 8 ft in mixed N and S long- period swell will
linger around the equator through most of the week, with swell
increasing by the end of the weekend. SW monsoonal winds will
freshen east of about 102W beginning late Wed along with building
seas to 8 ft. Meanwhile, a broad, elongated area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While a tropical
depression could still form during the next day or two, the
window for further development is shortening with stronger upper
level winds and cooler waters anticipated on Thursday. The system
is forecast to move WNW at 10 to 15 kt across the western part
of the basin. This system has a low chance of development in 48
hours and 7 days.

$$
AReinhart