291
FXUS63 KEAX 171730
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal or slightly below normal temperatures are expected for
the weekend as northerly flow dominates across the region.

- A few disturbances may create a passing shower, the first of
  which would be on Sunday night. Dry conditions should largely
  prevail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Fairly stagnant large upper level pattern with omega block centered
on the western US.  The central US remains on the front edge of the
upper level ridge, keeping us cooler than our counterparts to the
west and keeping us locked in northerly flow into at least the
middle of next week.

Low level cool air advection will increase more in earnest today as
surface high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  Light north-
northwestern winds will usher slightly drier air into the region
with dew points creeping towards the mid 60s.

Periodic shortwaves are expected to move southward late in the
weekend into next week creating outside chances of a passing shower.
 The first of these disturbances appears to be on Sunday evening.
This wave appears to be fairly moisture starved, and at this time
appears to be more focused across eastern Kansas than areas farther
east.

A second disturbance is possible on Tuesday, though there is low
enough model agreement that the forecast remains dry at this point.

Upper level ridge to the west gradually shifts eastward in the
second half of the week leading to at or above normal temperatures
returning to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds
will shift from N/NW to NE through the period, but will remain
on the lighter side, prevailing under 10kts. Showers/thunder
are possible late in the period, but low probability at this
time did not warrant mentions within TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Curtis/BT