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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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291 FXUS63 KEAX 171730 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...18z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal or slightly below normal temperatures are expected for the weekend as northerly flow dominates across the region. - A few disturbances may create a passing shower, the first of which would be on Sunday night. Dry conditions should largely prevail. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Fairly stagnant large upper level pattern with omega block centered on the western US. The central US remains on the front edge of the upper level ridge, keeping us cooler than our counterparts to the west and keeping us locked in northerly flow into at least the middle of next week. Low level cool air advection will increase more in earnest today as surface high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Light north- northwestern winds will usher slightly drier air into the region with dew points creeping towards the mid 60s. Periodic shortwaves are expected to move southward late in the weekend into next week creating outside chances of a passing shower. The first of these disturbances appears to be on Sunday evening. This wave appears to be fairly moisture starved, and at this time appears to be more focused across eastern Kansas than areas farther east. A second disturbance is possible on Tuesday, though there is low enough model agreement that the forecast remains dry at this point. Upper level ridge to the west gradually shifts eastward in the second half of the week leading to at or above normal temperatures returning to the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds will shift from N/NW to NE through the period, but will remain on the lighter side, prevailing under 10kts. Showers/thunder are possible late in the period, but low probability at this time did not warrant mentions within TAFs. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...Curtis/BT