818
FXUS63 KEAX 080525
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...Updated 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storms this afternoon, a few of which could
  be strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Potential thunderstorm complex moves into the area late
  tonight into Tuesday morning. Strong, potentially damaging
  winds, the main hazard with this potential system.

- Multiple chances for showers and storms this week. Though
  uncertainty in timing and location is very high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows a CU field converging, likely on a
weak stalled front or residual outflow boundary, from Sedalia and
Clinton, MO, westward to the KC area. Another area, between
Highway 65 and Highway 63, north of the MO River, has developed
some showers and storms. Lastly, there seems to be another weak
area of convergence in the CU field from extreme NE KS through
north central MO. It`s likely we`ll see isolated to scattered
showers and storms this afternoon and early this evening given
the unstable airmass and boundaries in the area. Weak shear
will limit the potential for anything organized but the more
robust updrafts may lead to some marginally severe wind gusts
and locally heavy rain, given the ample moisture available.

Focus then shifts to the overnight hours into tomorrow morning. A
shortwave trough and its associated surface front will help trigger
convection northwest of the area, in South Dakota to Nebraska.
stronger flow aloft will lead to stronger deep-layer shear so
convection that does develop northwest of the forecast area, will
likely grow into a strong to severe MCS. This system will likely
track to the southeast during the late evening and overnight hours.
It`s uncertain how far southeast this complex will survive. At a
minimum, it looks like this system may start dying as it moves into
the area. However, these systems frequently survive much further
southeast and there is guidance that suggest that potential. Given
this potential, likely PoPs seem to be the best route for the
northwestern half of the forecast area with higher chance PoPs
tomorrow morning for the southeastern half. If this system maintains
its intensity into the forecast area from Nebraska, damaging wind
gusts and heavy rainfall are the most likely hazards.

This system adds a fair amount of uncertainty to the forecast for
Tuesday, which, with yesterday`s forecast, looked like it had better
potential for severe convection in the afternoon. However, if the
forecast MCS moves through, that will likely limit future convection
during the afternoon as the airmass will need to recover. I`ve seen
this recovery occur very quickly before but what seems more
likely is that afternoon convection develops south and east of
the area. But again, this is highly dependent on how the MCS
evolves tomorrow.

Wednesday and Thursday look relatively quiet regarding precipitation
potential. Ensemble guidance shows low probabilities of QPF over
0.01" both days. So while a shower or two can`t be ruled out each
afternoon, it looks the majority of the area will stay dry. The next
decent chance for precipitation continues to look like Friday
and Friday night. Models show several upper-level shortwaves
moving through the flow across the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. Strong moisture transport will occur ahead of the cold
front associated with this wave with precipitation becoming more
likely late in the day but especially overnight. Ensemble
guidance continues to show chance PoPs in the southern portion
of the forecast area Saturday. But similar to the tonight-
Tuesday time frame, how this system evolves will have a very
large influence on the following day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Watching organized thunderstorm complex move southeast out of
Nebraska. Although decaying, heavier shower activity is
expected. Heavier shower activity should reach STJ between 0630z
and 0700z. Will continue to monitor lightning trends to
determine if thunder reaches STJ. Less confidence in westward
extent of the complex, therefore a bit more uncertain with the
KC metro terminals. Timing out the line, if it holds together,
will arrive at MCI between 07z and 08z, and then IXD about an
hour later. For now, will place TSRA in a PROB30 group for the
KC metro terminals. Weaker shower activity may develop behind
that between 11-13z. Heavier precipitation expected across
Central Missouri through the morning hours. Redevelopment of
storms over Central Missouri may be possible on Tuesday
afternoon, but will need to watch how current activity modifies
the environment. If the environment remains too stable, better
precipitation chances may push more into southern and
southeastern Missouri for Tuesday afternoon. Expecting mostly
VFR conditions, though brief MVFR ceilings are possible. If a
downpour occurs at the terminals, may see a few minutes of IFR
visibility. Wind gusts with decaying showers may reach between
25-35kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Krull