164
FXUS63 KEAX 180817
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
317 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for very light precipitation today mainly across eastern
Kansas and areas west.  Upper level cloud cover associated with the
disturbance will keep temperatures slightly cooler today.

- Cooler than normal conditions expected the first half of the week.
Heat and humidity return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Blocking Omega pattern continues today with tropical storm Ernesto
over the Atlantic keeping the pattern from evolving the next few
days. Shortwave over southeastern Wyoming this morning is expected
to ride the periphery of the upper level ridge across the west
diving south into eastern Kansas later today. Cloud bases appear to
be near 10K feet agl and with low level moisture and instability in
short supply, the chances of measurable precipitation is limited to
eastern KS and possibly far western Missouri. The grand ensemble
keeps the chance of measurable precipitation largely over KS, and
even then caps the chance of 0.01" to 30-40 percent.  Any measurable
precipitation should be very light, but the associated cloud cover
may shave a degree or two off high temperatures.

With the broad area of high pressure remaining across the Upper
Midwest, light northerly flow will continue to advect drier air into
the region.  This will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s
across much of the region tonight.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected the first half of the
week as the upper level ridge to the west retreats ever so slightly
as additional disturbances ride around the upper ridge. There is the
potential to see some light precipitation across portions of KS on
Tuesday with these features; however, the dry air from the ridge to
the north looks to keep eastern Kansas and Missouri dry.

As the omega block pattern begins to break down, upper level ridge
across the west shifts east bringing warmer conditions to the
region. Leeside troughing on the Rockies leads to stronger southerly
flow developing with increasing humidity returning next weekend.
This in tandem with high temperatures returning into the 90s F could
push heat indicies towards the triple digit mark.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Outside of a small chance (<15%) for fog at STJ, VFR conditions
are expected. Generally clear skies are expected overnight into
tomorrow morning with high level clouds thickening through the
day tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB