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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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164 FXUS63 KEAX 180817 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 317 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for very light precipitation today mainly across eastern Kansas and areas west. Upper level cloud cover associated with the disturbance will keep temperatures slightly cooler today. - Cooler than normal conditions expected the first half of the week. Heat and humidity return next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Blocking Omega pattern continues today with tropical storm Ernesto over the Atlantic keeping the pattern from evolving the next few days. Shortwave over southeastern Wyoming this morning is expected to ride the periphery of the upper level ridge across the west diving south into eastern Kansas later today. Cloud bases appear to be near 10K feet agl and with low level moisture and instability in short supply, the chances of measurable precipitation is limited to eastern KS and possibly far western Missouri. The grand ensemble keeps the chance of measurable precipitation largely over KS, and even then caps the chance of 0.01" to 30-40 percent. Any measurable precipitation should be very light, but the associated cloud cover may shave a degree or two off high temperatures. With the broad area of high pressure remaining across the Upper Midwest, light northerly flow will continue to advect drier air into the region. This will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s across much of the region tonight. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected the first half of the week as the upper level ridge to the west retreats ever so slightly as additional disturbances ride around the upper ridge. There is the potential to see some light precipitation across portions of KS on Tuesday with these features; however, the dry air from the ridge to the north looks to keep eastern Kansas and Missouri dry. As the omega block pattern begins to break down, upper level ridge across the west shifts east bringing warmer conditions to the region. Leeside troughing on the Rockies leads to stronger southerly flow developing with increasing humidity returning next weekend. This in tandem with high temperatures returning into the 90s F could push heat indicies towards the triple digit mark. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 957 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Outside of a small chance (<15%) for fog at STJ, VFR conditions are expected. Generally clear skies are expected overnight into tomorrow morning with high level clouds thickening through the day tomorrow. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...CDB