550
FXUS63 KEAX 182330
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO
630 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for light to moderate showers and perhaps a
  thunderstorm today and tonight mainly across eastern Kansas
  and areas west. Upper level cloud cover associated with the
  disturbance will keep temperatures slightly cooler today.

- Cooler than normal conditions expected the first half of the
  week. Heat and humidity return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Current radar, satellite, and observation analysis depict a
struggling complex of thunderstorms in east KS riding an
elevated instability gradient to the SSE. Trailing stratiform
and showers then stretch back north into Nebraska at the nose of
700 mb warm air advection and associated frontogenesis. Mid- and
upper-level clouds associated with the complex are keeping
temperatures on the "cooler" side with current observations in
the lower to middle 80s.


Potential for showers and perhaps thunderstorms today and tonight:

Highs today will not get much warmer than they are now. Forecast
high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s with warmer
temperatures across our southern area. Where the warmer
temperatures reside, instability begins to increase
dramatically (<250 J/kg in the KC Metro, ~2000 J/kg around Mound
City in Linn County). The thunderstorm complex in east KS is
riding this gradient to the SSE and given the current position
of the gradient and motion of the complex, part of it may clip
Miami, Linn, and Bates counties. Wind gusts up to 50 mph and
lightning would be the main hazards with these.

Afterwards, scattered showers along the mid-level frontogenesis
and isentropic upglide may impact areas in our east KS and
west-central MO counties this afternoon into the overnight
hours. The best chances for these (30-60%) would be between the
10 PM to 7 AM timeframe. These would occur in a narrow band and
stay in one place for the most part, which means they would not
impact many locations. 12Z HREF paired with trends from the
RAP/HRRR place this band somewhere along a line from Johnson to
Cass to Henry counties and southwestward. Totals up to half an
inch are possible with this round of precipitation.

Otherwise, lows tonight will be in the mid-60s.


Cooler than normal conditions first half of the week:

The current pattern with a mid-level high/ridge across the SW
CONUS and a mid-level low/trough over the NE CONUS will persist,
placing us at the northeast edge of the ridge underneath NW`ly
flow. Ensemble clusters are in decent agreement that the ridge
axis will be largely oriented from NW to SE during the first
half of the week. This will allow cooler air from the trough to
the NE to reach into our region for this timeframe. Highs Monday
through Wednesday will be in the lower to middle 80s with lows
in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

As the week progresses, shortwave energy will traverse the
northern CONUS and reorient the ridge axis to be SW to NE. This
will allow for the ridge to build into our area and begin
increasing heat and humidity across the area. Highs Thursday
will begin in the middle 80s and slowly increase to the middle
90s by Sunday. Lows Thursday night will start in the middle 60s
and increase to the lower 70s by Sunday night.

No other active weather is expected during this period with
relatively calm winds and low precipitation chances. Mid-range
to long range models do begin to diverge after mid-week in terms
of where shortwave energy sets up. Depending on which scenario
pans out, precipitation chances could increase going into the
weekend, but of course, confidence is too low at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

A few light showers are currently moving into far northwestern
Missouri, but this activity should continue to dissipate as it
moves to the south. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances
tonight into Monday night are expected to remain southwest of
the TAF sites. Otherwise VFR conditional with light north to
northeasterly winds will occur through Monday morning with winds
increasing slightly during the afternoon hours Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO SGF
AVIATION...WFO SGF