![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
417 FXUS63 KEAX 130828 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 328 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cluster of storms will move into western Missouri this morning. Gusty winds, lightning, and moderate to locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards. - A narrow swath of storms to develop across northwest Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Uncertainty remains on exact positioning, and there is a Slight risk (2 of 4) for excessive rainfall with this activity. - A chance for severe weather Wednesday afternoon/evening. Strong to damaging winds seem to be the primary hazard at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Regional observations and nighttime microphysics imagery show low stratus clouds overspreading the region early this morning. With persistent low-level moisture, further reductions to ceilings will continue through sunrise. The latest HREF probabilities of visibilities less than 1 mile are across southern Iowa and northern Missouri, prompting a Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM for locations north of the Kansas City metro. Water vapor imagery depicts broad upper-level ridging across the Plains. A shortwave impulse has aided in convective development earlier in the evening across the High Plains, which will continue to gradually shift east through Kansas and into Missouri this morning. This activity should gradually weaken as instability wanes, though with 0-3 km bulk shear of 20-30 kt and 0-3 km theta-e differences around 20-25 degrees, gusty winds will remain possible. Corfidi and forward- propagating vectors suggest the remnants of this cluster begin to turn more southeasterly as they cross into Missouri, which may keep the strongest activity south of the Kansas City metro. Heavy Rain and Severe Thunderstorm Potential Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning: The aforementioned upper-level ridge will continue to shift east through the Plains today. At the surface, a warm front will lift north into central Kansas. CAMs develop a corridor of 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE across northwest MO by Tuesday night, which could aid in the development of a few strong to marginal severe updrafts capable of producing gusty winds and hail northeast of the boundary. Of greater concern, however, may be the heavy rain potential. Recent runs of the CAMs have been fairly consistent in orienting these storms in a northwest to southeast swath from southeast Nebraska down through Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Moisture will certainly not be lacking, with forecast PWATs of 2.0-2.2" and 850 mb dew points of 15-18 degrees being anomalously high relative to climatology. Thus, these storms will be efficient rainfall makers. The latest HREF LPMM shows a fairly narrow swath of rainfall totals of 2-4 inches. It should be noted that a fair amount of uncertainty exists in QPF location, though, as hi- res guidance has disagreed in specific placement and has wobbled from run- to- run. Rainfall totals will likely vary significant across relatively short distances, and some locations may see little rainfall. This uncertainty has precluded any Flood Watch issuance with this forecast package, though one may be needed in a future update if confidence in location grows. Three-hour flash-flood guidance ranges from 2 inches northeast of the Kansas City metro, to 3-3.5 inches elsewhere, therefore, locations that have received heavy rainfall in the recent days may be better primed for flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Slight risk of Excessive Rainfall. Heat and Storms Wednesday: As the aforementioned warm front continues to lift north, warm, humid air will expand into the region. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dew points in the mid 70s would support a corridor of heat index values in the 100-105+ degree range, generally south of I-70 and along I-49. By late afternoon, a weak surface low should help initiate convection over eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Ample instability and sufficient shear may support the potential for the development of more robust and sustained updrafts. However, this potential is conditional on diurnal recovery from the morning activity. The Storm Prediction center has outlined portions of far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas in a Slight risk, with a Marginal risk elsewhere. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist through the end of the week with shortwave impulses transiting the northern Plains and Midwest. NBM interquartile ranges also generally decrease through the period, with forecast highs in the 80s each day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Observations have shown clouds gradually lowering to MVFR to near-IFR at the beginning of the TAF period. Ceilings are expected to deteriorate to MVFR and IFR through the first several hours of the forecast period. Areas of fog/low stratus have also developed across portions of southern Iowa and and eastern Missouri. A complex of showers and thunderstorms will approach the TAF sites after 12Z and is expected to weaken as it does so. Therefore, confidence was too low to include any mention of lightning in the current TAFs, but future amendments are possible. Light east-northeasterly winds around 5-7 kt will shift more southeasterly after 18Z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-032-033-040. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO Springfield AVIATION...WFO Springfield