187
FXUS63 KEAX 242335
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are likely this
  afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce locally
  moderate to heavy rainfall and brief wind gusts up to 55 to 60
  mph.

- Pop up showers and storms possible again tomorrow afternoon,
  but severe and heavy rainfall risk should be quite low.

- A few storms capable of producing near severe criteria wind
  gusts and locally heavy rainfall will be possible yet again on
  Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Hot and mildly humid conditions should continue through the
  weekend, with afternoon heat indices ranging from the mid to
  upper 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Our CWA remains situated toward the western edge of the stout
mid/upper level high currently centered over Appalachia, with
troughing across Southern California into the Great Basin,
yielding 20 knot WSW mid level flow over the area. At the
surface, the quasi stationary boundary remains draped west to
east from central Nebraska into central Iowa. The showers and
storms that produced up to 7" of rain across northwestern and
north central Missouri last night into this morning has finally
dissipated. However, temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
and dewpoints in the lower 70s has yielded around 3000 J/kg of
surface based CAPE, and with no convective inhibition,
widespread agitated cumulus has developed this afternoon with
isolated popup showers as of 3 PM. HRRR guidance suggests more
robust pulse convection will be possible later this afternoon
into this evening, with a few storms capable of producing some
wind gusts approaching severe criteria thanks to around 1000
J/kg of DCAPE and relatively favorable conditions for
downbursts/microbursts (e.g. very weak deep layer shear).
Better chances for any strong to marginally severe wind gusts
should remain north of Interstate 70 within the SPC marginal
risk area. With PWATs ranging from 1.7" (south) to 2.1" (north),
locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible with these
showers and storms this afternoon and evening, although an MCS
producing widespread 3+ inches of rain like last night and this
morning is not anticipated at this time. Convection should begin
to weaken by late evening with the loss of diurnal heating.

By tomorrow afternoon, the H5 high over Appalachia migrates
further west over Kentucky/Tennessee, although it does weaken
(from roughly 599 dam to 594 dam). Conditions should be
relatively similar to today`s, with afternoon highs in the low
to mid 90s and maximum afternoon heat indices ranging from the
mid to upper 90s. Diurnally driven showers and (non severe) storms
will be possible again tomorrow afternoon, with better chances
remaining east of Kansas City. The H5 high is progged to
continue to weaken into Thursday, but broad ridging should
remain, with afternoon highs and heat indices in the low to mid
90s and upper 90s, respectively, as well as slightly enhanced
SSW surface winds with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. With moderate
to high instability and slightly better deep layer shear (up to
20 to 25 knots), a few strong storms could be possible Thursday
afternoon and evening along and ahead of a frontal boundary. As
such, SPC has highlighted areas along and north of a Kansas
City to Kirksville line within a marginal risk for severe
storms, although most model guidance seems to like the
environment more toward the Iowa border at this time.

The synoptic pattern looks to remain fairly unchanged as we head
into Friday and the weekend, with broad mid/upper ridging and
weak zonal flow in place. The result should be afternoon highs
in the upper 80s (northern MO) to the lower 90s (with heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s) and overnight lows in the low
to mid 70s, with possible diurnally driven pop up showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Scattered showers and storms continue across portions of NE
Kansas and NW-northern Missouri. STJ will likely be
intermittently impacted by showers and storms between now and
2z this evening. MCI will likely stay south of the convection,
but cannot completely rule it out, so have maintained the PROB30
for -TSRA through 1z. After this, VFR conditions and dry
weather is expected through the remainder of the period (a few
pop up showers will be possible again tomorrow afternoon, but
should remain east of the terminals). Winds should remain
generally light (10 knots or less) and out of the S-SW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW