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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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964 FXUS63 KEAX 140454 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1154 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple chances for scattered showers and storms expected through Thursday. A potential for heavy rainfall could result in some minor flooding. - A chance for severe weather Wednesday afternoon/evening. Strong to damaging winds and hail seem to be the primary hazards at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The upper levels show broad ridging to the west over western CONUS. The ridge is expected move into the region by tomorrow. At the surface, there is a surface low over southeastern CO with its associated warm front to the east of the CWA. Early Wednesday morning, a round of showers and storms are expected to develop as a shortwave out ahead of the surface low moves through the area. Guidance is consistent with its northwest to southeast orientation. The severe weather threat is low at this time with bulk shear values around 30 knots and MUCAPE values around 1,000 J/kg. There is a decent cap in place which could hinder convective development, so storms could be isolated to scattered in nature. Strong winds and small hail seem to be the main hazards at this time. Additionally, PWATs remain around 2 inches, so heavy rainfall could result in flooding concerns with the greatest threat area to the south of the CWA. Wednesday afternoon presents some heat concerns as an 850mb thermal ridge sets up to our west over central CONUS. The eastern-most edge of the thermal ridge is expected to encompass an area from Johnson county to Jackson county and south. As a result, heat indices may near advisory level for these counties. This of course is dependent on the amount of clearing that takes place after the morning showers and storms. If cloud coverage struggles to dissipate, heat index values will stay well below heat advisory level criteria. Acknowledging that, a heat advisory is in effect tomorrow from 1PM to 7PM CDT for the southwestern portion of our CWA. Wednesday night into Thursday, a potential for severe weather exists as the aforementioned surface low and associated fronts move through the area. The surface low is expected to track to the northeast and pass through Iowa. This will result in a northeast to southwest cold front orientation. Showers and storms are expected to develop along the boundary. With good shear (~40 knots of bulk shear) and an intensifying low level jet setting up in the late evening a severe potential exists. MUCAPE values ranging from 2,000-3,000 J/kg suggest ample instability for storm formation and updraft strength. Strong to damaging winds and hail seem to be the main concerns if storms are able to develop. SPC has placed the northwest corner of our CWA in a slight risk (2 out of 5) and a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for the rest of the CWA. Multiple chances for showers will continue through the end of the week as upper level troughing moves to the north of the region. Starting on Thursday, high temperatures are expected to remain in the 80s through next week. For the start of next week, ridging is expected to build into the area which is expected to result in drier conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 A line of storms is likely to develop over eastern KS and western MO in the next few hours and shift east with time in the pre-dawn hours. This area of storms will likely affect all TAF sites from 8-9Z through 11-12Z. Outside of the storms, IFR to low MVFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours. As a warmer and more humid air mass builds into the area, storms shift east and ceilings begin to raise so that by the afternoon hours, VFR conditions become likely. Easterly winds initially will become southeasterly this afternoon and southerly this evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ028-037- 043-044-053-054. Flood Watch from 4 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon for MOZ003>007-013>017-022>025-030>033-038>040- 045-046. KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025-057- 060-103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...CDB