964
FXUS63 KEAX 140454
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances for scattered showers and storms expected through
Thursday. A potential for heavy rainfall could result in some minor
flooding.

- A chance for severe weather Wednesday afternoon/evening. Strong to
damaging winds and hail seem to be the primary hazards at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The upper levels show broad ridging to the west over western CONUS.
The ridge is expected move into the region by tomorrow. At the
surface, there is a surface low over southeastern CO with its
associated warm front to the east of the CWA.

Early Wednesday morning, a round of showers and storms are expected
to develop as a shortwave out ahead of the surface low moves through
the area. Guidance is consistent with its northwest to southeast
orientation. The severe weather threat is low at this time with bulk
shear values around 30 knots and MUCAPE values around 1,000 J/kg.
There is a decent cap in place which could hinder convective
development, so storms could be isolated to scattered in nature.
Strong winds and small hail seem to be the main hazards at this
time. Additionally, PWATs remain around 2 inches, so heavy rainfall
could result in flooding concerns with the greatest threat area to
the south of the CWA.

Wednesday afternoon presents some heat concerns as an 850mb thermal
ridge sets up to our west over central CONUS. The eastern-most edge
of the thermal ridge is expected to encompass an area from Johnson
county to Jackson county and south. As a result, heat indices may
near advisory level for these counties. This of course is dependent
on the amount of clearing that takes place after the morning showers
and storms. If cloud coverage struggles to dissipate, heat index
values will stay well below heat advisory level criteria.
Acknowledging that, a heat advisory is in effect tomorrow from 1PM
to 7PM CDT for the southwestern portion of our CWA.

Wednesday night into Thursday, a potential for severe weather exists
as the aforementioned surface low and associated fronts move through
the area. The surface low is expected to track to the northeast and
pass through Iowa. This will result in a northeast to southwest cold
front orientation. Showers and storms are expected to develop along
the boundary. With good shear (~40 knots of bulk shear) and an
intensifying low level jet setting up in the late evening a severe
potential exists. MUCAPE values ranging from 2,000-3,000 J/kg
suggest ample instability for storm formation and updraft strength.
Strong to damaging winds and hail seem to be the main concerns if
storms are able to develop. SPC has placed the northwest corner of
our CWA in a slight risk (2 out of 5) and a marginal risk (1 out of
5) for the rest of the CWA.

Multiple chances for showers will continue through the end of the
week as upper level troughing moves to the north of the region.
Starting on Thursday, high temperatures are expected to remain in
the 80s through next week. For the start of next week, ridging is
expected to build into the area which is expected to result in drier
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

A line of storms is likely to develop over eastern KS and
western MO in the next few hours and shift east with time in the
pre-dawn hours. This area of storms will likely affect all TAF
sites from 8-9Z through 11-12Z. Outside of the storms, IFR to
low MVFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours. As
a warmer and more humid air mass builds into the area, storms
shift east and ceilings begin to raise so that by the afternoon
hours, VFR conditions become likely. Easterly winds initially
will become southeasterly this afternoon and southerly this
evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ028-037-
     043-044-053-054.
     Flood Watch from 4 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     afternoon for MOZ003>007-013>017-022>025-030>033-038>040-
     045-046.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB