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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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659 FXUS63 KEAX 142020 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY 320 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible this evening into the overnight. - Additional storms, some strong to severe, are possible Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Earlier convection has pushed into central and southeastern Missouri, with plenty of debris clouds limiting temperatures to the upper 70s and lower 80s so far, but a very warm and moist air mass lurks across SE Kansas and SW Missouri. PWAT values exceed 1.5 inches across eastern Kansas and there`s an axis of 2" across central Missouri. Expect a modest northward surge of the warmer and oppressively humid air mass during the late afternoon hours, so the Heat Advisory conditions could still be realized especially in and south of the KC Metro. Hi-res models suggest the effective boundary over central Kansas and SE Nebraska will light up this evening between 00-02Z, with some initial supercell structures possible. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will support large hail, and there`s a brief window for a tornado threat, mainly north and west of St Joseph, before storms congeal into a MCS that will trek across northern Missouri overnight. Wind threat could continue as impressive DCAPE surges north ahead of the incoming system, fading as you get farther south and east of the I-35 corridor. Renewed SVR threat on Thursday will depend on how quickly the atmosphere recovers from overnight storms. Multiple disturbances in the flow aloft could interact with a sfc cold front, and any convection that does develop will feed off the instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Will be another window of opportunity for supercells and attendant tornado and hail threats, with damaging winds as the primary threat to continue as storms organize. By Friday a post-frontal NW flow takes over, with a modestly less humid air mass building in. Still enough cyclonic curvature in the upper flow to allow for some destabilization, so we can`t rule out more storms late in the day Friday. A stretch of mostly dry weather begins on Saturday and continues well into next week as an upper trof pushes east into the Great Lakes and upper ridging amplifies along the Rockies. Sfc high pressure will retreat from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, maintaining low-level easterly flow, which will result in near- normal temperatures and seasonably muggy dewpoints. Convection on the periphery of the high should remain focused over central portions of Nebraska and Kansas and dive almost due south, leaving western Missouri and northeast Kansas high and dry. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Borderline IFR stratus has been slow to mix out at KIXD, and a BKN ceiling near 1 kft may linger briefly at the start of this TAF period. Otherwise, expect gusty southeasterly winds this afternoon. The main aviation impact will be due to TSRA tonight. Convection will accompany a cold frontal passage between roughly 02-07Z Thursday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-037-043- 044-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO Louisville AVIATION...WFO Louisville