626
FXUS63 KEAX 252025
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
325 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening mainly east of I-35
  may produce brief wind gusts and very local heavy rain.

* More widespread storms expected tomorrow across northern and
  western Missouri as weak trough builds south.  Outside chance of a
  strong storm or two, but am very concerned about the potential for
  heavy rainfall over similar locations that saw 5-8" of rain the
  last few days.

* Hot and humid conditions continue Friday into the weekend with
  sporadic chances for storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Broad ridge of high pressure across the eastern US yielding warm and
muggy conditions.  Atmosphere is unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg of
surface based CAPE.  With surface temperatures warming across
central Missouri slightly quicker, we have seen isolated storms
develop after 18Z across central Missouri. Expect coverage to
gradually expand back to the west towards the I-35 corridor through
the afternoon- early evening hours, but very limited wind shear
should lead to isolated airmass storms capable of brief wind gusts
and very localized brief heavy rain as these slow moving
thunderstorms crawl northeast at 15-20 knots.

Thunderstorms are expected to gradually wane with the loss of
surface heating late this evening.  Warm muggy conditions remain
across the region with broad southerly flow continuing.  Weak trough
across central Nebraska is expected to inch southeast tonight into
tomorrow as low level jet develops across the central plains leading
to increasing thunderstorm coverage across central Nebraska.  These
storms are expected to undergo a diurnal trend weakening tomorrow
morning as the low level jet weakens.  With daytime heating and
increased destabilization, expect thunderstorms to redevelop
Thursday afternoon helping push the trough south through the
forecast area. Wind shear along and ahead of the storms remains
weak, so widespread severe weather is not expected; however,
moisture pooling along the front could lead to PWAT values climbing
towards 2+" (near daily max). With deep warm cloud depths (~10K
feet), slow storm motions and the potential for cluster and lines
training over similar locations through the afternoon and evening
hours am concerned about the potential for heavy rainfall across
northern into western Missouri. Strongly considered a flash flood
watch for northern Missouri in areas that saw 5-8+" of rain the last
few days, but through collaboration agreed to let the midnight shift
take a second look.

As storms attempt to move farther away to the south from the trough
it may become increasingly difficult to sustain themselves with lack
of forcing. Potential for additional storms are possible on Friday
as additional short waves may build northeast into the region.

Warm and muggy conditions with sporadic storm chances continue this
weekend.  Potential for a cold front to drop south through the
region Sunday night into Monday may lead to more widespread
thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Cumulus are expected to remain through the afternoon into the
early evening hours. Can`t rule out a late day thunderstorm,
though best chances look to be east of I-35. Southerly winds
remain through the overnight into Thursday ahead of a weak front
dropping through the region resulting in afternoon/evening
thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CMS