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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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954 FXUS63 KEAX 150616 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY 116 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible this evening into the overnight. - Additional storms, some strong to severe, are possible Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 After collaboration with SPC and TOP, have allowed Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 to expire on time at 1am CDT. Line of storms currently crossing Franklin and Anderson counties in northeast Kansas may still pose a wind threat as it pushes east into the EAX CWA and western Missouri, but thus far the strongest wind signatures have remained aloft, with peak winds at UKL only around 37 mph. Can`t completely rule out the possibility of a warning or two south of Kansas City during the 06-09Z time frame, but it appears that most storms will be more SPS-level. Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Line of strong to severe storms continues to push through a corridor of maximized MUCAPE showing up on plan view analysis and ACARS sounding out of MCI. Sounding does show a very shallow stable layer, CIN has increased regionwide as we progress deeper into the nighttime hours, and radar shows the storms west of the KC metro becoming largely outflow dominated. Still, gusts recently reached 59mph at the Topeka NWS office and warnings are being issued downstream ahead of a bowing segment coming in to Leavenworth County in a localized maximum of steep mid level lapse rates and DCAPE 1300-1400 J/kg. These storms may threaten the Kansas City metro, especially along and north of Interstate 70. Though the storms may lose some of their punch as they cross northern Missouri, as has already been seen in the storms from St Joseph northward, a severe threat will persist for a few more hours and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 has been expanded about two rows of counties eastward per collaboration with SPC. At this time it appears unlikely that the watch will need to be extended in time beyond 06Z, but will continue to monitor. Issued at 836 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 An elongated broken band of strong to severe storms continue to advance eastward this evening across central and eastern Kansas. Storms are already advancing into our far NW CWA (Atchison County) but this activity has been sub-severe and will likely continue to weaken with eastward extent. Farther south, a mixture of linear segments and supercellular structures are being observed north of Manhattan/Topeka Kansas. Reports of hail and even a tornado have been observed with these storms. Overall environment for surface based storms becomes less favorable with eastward extent as SPC Mesoanalysis shows a fairly strong MLCIN gradient near and east of the KS/MO borders. Still, modest deep layer shear and elevated instability will keep an organized storm threat going for the areas within the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Heat index values have dropped below criteria levels so the heat advisory has been allowed to expire on time. Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 has been issued for northwestern portions of the region. Strong to severe storms have already formed in portions of central Kansas and this activity will gradually slide eastward through the remaining evening and overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Earlier convection has pushed into central and southeastern Missouri, with plenty of debris clouds limiting temperatures to the upper 70s and lower 80s so far, but a very warm and moist air mass lurks across SE Kansas and SW Missouri. PWAT values exceed 1.5 inches across eastern Kansas and there`s an axis of 2" across central Missouri. Expect a modest northward surge of the warmer and oppressively humid air mass during the late afternoon hours, so the Heat Advisory conditions could still be realized especially in and south of the KC Metro. Hi-res models suggest the effective boundary over central Kansas and SE Nebraska will light up this evening between 00-02Z, with some initial supercell structures possible. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will support large hail, and there`s a brief window for a tornado threat, mainly north and west of St Joseph, before storms congeal into a MCS that will trek across northern Missouri overnight. Wind threat could continue as impressive DCAPE surges north ahead of the incoming system, fading as you get farther south and east of the I-35 corridor. Renewed SVR threat on Thursday will depend on how quickly the atmosphere recovers from overnight storms. Multiple disturbances in the flow aloft could interact with a sfc cold front, and any convection that does develop will feed off the instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Will be another window of opportunity for supercells and attendant tornado and hail threats, with damaging winds as the primary threat to continue as storms organize. By Friday a post-frontal NW flow takes over, with a modestly less humid air mass building in. Still enough cyclonic curvature in the upper flow to allow for some destabilization, so we can`t rule out more storms late in the day Friday. A stretch of mostly dry weather begins on Saturday and continues well into next week as an upper trof pushes east into the Great Lakes and upper ridging amplifies along the Rockies. Sfc high pressure will retreat from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, maintaining low-level easterly flow, which will result in near- normal temperatures and seasonably muggy dewpoints. Convection on the periphery of the high should remain focused over central portions of Nebraska and Kansas and dive almost due south, leaving western Missouri and northeast Kansas high and dry. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Line of strong convection from earlier this evening has moved through the TAF sites and is weakening as it crosses northern Missouri. Additional convection has developed from Kansas City and Topeka southwestward, but this activity is more isolated and much less robust. Will account for the possibility of TSRA in the first hour of the new TAF period at MCI/MKC. Chances are lower at IXD, and STJ should be done by TAF issuance time (though will need to keep an eye on small thunderstorm north of TOP at the time of this writing). This afternoon a cold front will pass through the region. There will be plenty of instability and moisture ahead of the boundary, suggesting the possibility of thunderstorm development. However, most model progs show very little in the way of convection at or near the TAF sites, possibly due to capping showing up in soundings. Better chances of storms may be just to the east of the TAF sites. So, at this time will leave TSRA out of the forecast, but will need to consider it in future forecasts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...WFO Louisville/13 DISCUSSION...WFO Louisville AVIATION...WFO Louisville/13