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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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327 FXUS63 KEAX 151016 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY 516 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms will be possible from mid afternoon through mid evening today. Strong gusty winds will be the primary threat, with large hail and isolated tornadoes secondary threats. - It will be hot and muggy today with heat index readings possibly surpassing 100 degrees south of Interstate 70. - Scattered storms will again be possible Friday evening and Friday night south of Interstate 70. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with briefly strong gusty winds and marginally severe hail as the primary threats. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Overnight convection has been waning since midnight and this trend is expected to continue, though clouds and scattered showers will linger into mid-morning. However, clearing is expected by late morning and through the afternoon, allowing the atmosphere to at least partially recover and destabilize. A strengthening 5H shortwave trough/speed max will cruise through the mid-Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening followed by another speed max tonight curling around an upper low over Minnesota. A surface cold front will enter the region from the northwest, roughly bisecting northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas by midday. These factors plus the possibility of leftover boundaries from early morning convection and differential heating boundaries from any lingering mid/high clouds combined with the hot and muggy air mass may lead to scattered convective development by mid to late afternoon. Having said that, most models show the bulk of the storm development this afternoon and evening well ahead of the cold front across eastern and southern Missouri where there will be a slightly better moisture supply. So, will have PoPs in the forecast but will keep them isolated/scattered. If storms do develop, there will be a brief window at the time of maximum destabilization, bulk shear, and forcing late this afternoon into the early evening hours for a chance of severe weather. Fairly straight hodographs and lack of backed surface winds support more of a gusty wind threat than a tornado threat, which is in line with the SPC outlook (though of course storm interactions can locally increase the chance of tornadogenesis). Thick CAPE on sounding progs and some dry air aloft would support hail, though large hail should be a secondary threat to gusty winds given high wet bulb zero levels and only moderate bulk shear. Highs today will range from the upper 80s in northern Missouri to the middle 90s from Linn County KS over to the Truman Lake area. Given dew points of 70 to 75, it will be a hot and muggy day. At this time it looks like heat index readings will stop just short of advisory criteria (with questions regarding the speed with which morning clouds will exit/dissipate leading to lower confidence in the temperature forecast), so, after having coordinated with LSX and SGF, will hold off on any heat headlines for now. Friday a small upper disturbance will slide from Nebraska to Kansas in WNW flow and may spark additional thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening, primarily south of Interstate 70. How far south today`s cold front pushes will be a factor in where storm development takes place. Post-frontal temperatures and dew points should be a few degrees lower than today. Widespread heavy rain is not expected today through tomorrow, though locally heavy downpours will occur with the stronger storms and could still produce brief flooding issues. Saturday through Wednesday looks like a generally less active period as a large upper ridge builds over the Plains and Front Range. Highs each day will be in the 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 510 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Mid/upper clouds and patchy light rain will linger through mid- morning, but the majority of it should be east of the TAF sites and shouldn`t be a significant problem for aviation. This afternoon/evening a cold front will pass through the region. There will be plenty of instability and moisture ahead of the boundary, suggesting the possibility of thunderstorm development. However, most model progs show very little in the way of convection at or near the TAF sites, possibly due to some warm air aloft. While a few echoes may get forced along the front late this afternoon and early this evening, better chances of storms may be just to the south and east of the TAF sites. So, at this time will leave TSRA out of the forecast, but will need to consider it in future forecasts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO Louisville/13 AVIATION...WFO Louisville/13