327
FXUS63 KEAX 151016
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY
516 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms will be possible from mid afternoon
  through mid evening today. Strong gusty winds will be the
  primary threat, with large hail and isolated tornadoes
  secondary threats.

- It will be hot and muggy today with heat index readings
  possibly surpassing 100 degrees south of Interstate 70.

- Scattered storms will again be possible Friday evening and
  Friday night south of Interstate 70. A few strong to severe
  storms will be possible with briefly strong gusty winds and
  marginally severe hail as the primary threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Overnight convection has been waning since midnight and this trend
is expected to continue, though clouds and scattered showers will
linger into mid-morning. However, clearing is expected by late
morning and through the afternoon, allowing the atmosphere to at
least partially recover and destabilize. A strengthening 5H
shortwave trough/speed max will cruise through the mid-Missouri
Valley this afternoon and evening followed by another speed max
tonight curling around an upper low over Minnesota. A surface cold
front will enter the region from the northwest, roughly bisecting
northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas by midday. These factors plus
the possibility of leftover boundaries from early morning
convection and differential heating boundaries from any lingering
mid/high clouds combined with the hot and muggy air mass may lead to
scattered convective development by mid to late afternoon. Having
said that, most models show the bulk of the storm development this
afternoon and evening well ahead of the cold front across eastern
and southern Missouri where there will be a slightly better moisture
supply. So, will have PoPs in the forecast but will keep them
isolated/scattered. If storms do develop, there will be a brief
window at the time of maximum destabilization, bulk shear, and
forcing late this afternoon into the early evening hours for a
chance of severe weather. Fairly straight hodographs and lack of
backed surface winds support more of a gusty wind threat than a
tornado threat, which is in line with the SPC outlook (though of
course storm interactions can locally increase the chance of
tornadogenesis). Thick CAPE on sounding progs and some dry air aloft
would support hail, though large hail should be a secondary threat
to gusty winds given high wet bulb zero levels and only moderate
bulk shear.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s in northern Missouri to
the middle 90s from Linn County KS over to the Truman Lake area.
Given dew points of 70 to 75, it will be a hot and muggy day. At
this time it looks like heat index readings will stop just short of
advisory criteria (with questions regarding the speed with which
morning clouds will exit/dissipate leading to lower confidence in
the temperature forecast), so, after having coordinated with LSX and
SGF, will hold off on any heat headlines for now.

Friday a small upper disturbance will slide from Nebraska to Kansas
in WNW flow and may spark additional thunderstorms Friday afternoon
and evening, primarily south of Interstate 70. How far south today`s
cold front pushes will be a factor in where storm development takes
place. Post-frontal temperatures and dew points should be a few
degrees lower than today.

Widespread heavy rain is not expected today through tomorrow, though
locally heavy downpours will occur with the stronger storms and
could still produce brief flooding issues.

Saturday through Wednesday looks like a generally less active period
as a large upper ridge builds over the Plains and Front Range. Highs
each day will be in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Mid/upper clouds and patchy light rain will linger through mid-
morning, but the majority of it should be east of the TAF sites
and shouldn`t be a significant problem for aviation.

This afternoon/evening a cold front will pass through the
region. There will be plenty of instability and moisture ahead
of the boundary, suggesting the possibility of thunderstorm
development. However, most model progs show very little in the
way of convection at or near the TAF sites, possibly due to some
warm air aloft. While a few echoes may get forced along the
front late this afternoon and early this evening, better chances
of storms may be just to the south and east of the TAF sites.
So, at this time will leave TSRA out of the forecast, but will
need to consider it in future forecasts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO Louisville/13
AVIATION...WFO Louisville/13