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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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488 FXUS63 KEAX 182000 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for light to moderate showers and perhaps a thunderstorm today and tonight mainly across eastern Kansas and areas west. Upper level cloud cover associated with the disturbance will keep temperatures slightly cooler today. - Cooler than normal conditions expected the first half of the week. Heat and humidity return next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Current radar, satellite, and observation analysis depict a struggling complex of thunderstorms in east KS riding an elevated instability gradient to the SSE. Trailing stratiform and showers then stretch back north into Nebraska at the nose of 700 mb warm air advection and associated frontogenesis. Mid- and upper-level clouds associated with the complex are keeping temperatures on the "cooler" side with current observations in the lower to middle 80s. Potential for showers and perhaps thunderstorms today and tonight: Highs today will not get much warmer than they are now. Forecast high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s with warmer temperatures across our southern area. Where the warmer temperatures reside, instability begins to increase dramatically (<250 J/kg in the KC Metro, ~2000 J/kg around Mound City in Linn County). The thunderstorm complex in east KS is riding this gradient to the SSE and given the current position of the gradient and motion of the complex, part of it may clip Miami, Linn, and Bates counties. Wind gusts up to 50 mph and lightning would be the main hazards with these. Afterwards, scattered showers along the mid-level frontogenesis and isentropic upglide may impact areas in our east KS and west-central MO counties this afternoon into the overnight hours. The best chances for these (30-60%) would be between the 10 PM to 7 AM timeframe. These would occur in a narrow band and stay in one place for the most part, which means they would not impact many locations. 12Z HREF paired with trends from the RAP/HRRR place this band somewhere along a line from Johnson to Cass to Henry counties and southwestward. Totals up to half an inch are possible with this round of precipitation. Otherwise, lows tonight will be in the mid-60s. Cooler than normal conditions first half of the week: The current pattern with a mid-level high/ridge across the SW CONUS and a mid-level low/trough over the NE CONUS will persist, placing us at the northeast edge of the ridge underneath NW`ly flow. Ensemble clusters are in decent agreement that the ridge axis will be largely oriented from NW to SE during the first half of the week. This will allow cooler air from the trough to the NE to reach into our region for this timeframe. Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the lower to middle 80s with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. As the week progresses, shortwave energy will traverse the northern CONUS and reorient the ridge axis to be SW to NE. This will allow for the ridge to build into our area and begin increasing heat and humidity across the area. Highs Thursday will begin in the middle 80s and slowly increase to the middle 90s by Sunday. Lows Thursday night will start in the middle 60s and increase to the lower 70s by Sunday night. No other active weather is expected during this period with relatively calm winds and low precipitation chances. Mid-range to long range models do begin to diverge after mid-week in terms of where shortwave energy sets up. Depending on which scenario pans out, precipitation chances could increase going into the weekend, but of course, confidence is too low at the moment. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A thunderstorm complex is currently dropping SSE through NE KS. Stratiform showers will clip the TAF sites between the 18-21Z period, temporarily dropping conditions to MVFR at times. Afterwards, a NW-SE oriented line of broken showers will continue. Current thinking is that this line may stay just SW of the TAF sites, but with all model guidance poorly handling the precipitation and forecast confidence currently low, have kept a TEMPO group for all sites for the 21-00Z timeframe. Later in the period, redevelopment of thunderstorms is possible (30-50% chance), but these should stay SW of the area with a shower or two perhaps clipping IXD. Otherwise, winds will be calm out of the NE with BKN to OVC mid- level and high-level clouds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SGF_Price AVIATION...SGF_Price